UCF will host Memphis on Friday night with kickoff set for 7 PM EST. Memphis is currently a -1 point road favorite with a total of 63. The game can be seen on ESPN2.
UCF comes into this game at 3-3 overall and 1-2 in conference play. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, their losses have been close and they did beat a decent Boise State team to start the year. Of note, UCF is 3-0 at home.
Memphis isn’t faring much better. They are 4-3 overall and 1-2 in conference play. As with UCF, at this point in the season the chances of making any noise within the conference are pretty much toast, so the focus becomes qualifying for a Bowl game.
Head to Head History
10/17/2020 Central Florida 49 - 2.5 at Memphis 50
12/ 1/2018 Memphis 41 + 3.0 at Central Florida 56
10/13/2018 Central Florida 31 - 5.0 at Memphis 30
12/ 2/2017 Memphis 55 + 7.0 at Central Florida 62
9/30/2017 Memphis 13 + 5.5 at Central Florida 40
10/ 5/2013 Central Florida 24 - 9.0 at Memphis 17
10/20/2012 Central Florida 35 -22.0 at Memphis 17
10/29/2011 Memphis 0 +29.5 at Central Florida 41
11/27/2010 Central Florida 37 -26.0 at Memphis 17
10/ 3/2009 Memphis 14 + 7.0 at Central Florida 32
11/22/2008 Central Florida 28 + 5.0 at Memphis 21
9/22/2007 Memphis 20 + 6.5 at Central Florida 56
11/11/2006 Central Florida 26 + 1.5 at Memphis 24
10/ 8/2005 Memphis 17 - 3.0 at Central Florida 38
average outcome:
Memphis 24.0 Central Florida 39.6
margin = 15.64
time-weighted average outcome:
Memphis 36.6 Central Florida 45.8
margin = 9.13
average result when the home team is Central Florida
Memphis 22.9 Central Florida 46.4
margin = 23.57
average result when the home team is Memphis
Central Florida 32.9 Memphis 25.1
margin = -7.71
61.54 % of games went Over
71.43 % went Over at Central Florida
average total points per game = 63.64
time-weighted average total = 82.38
the home team covered 84.62 % of the time
the road team covered 15.38 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 8.73
the favorite covered 38.46 % of the time
the underdog covered 61.54 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.04
the favorite won SU 71.43 % of the time
Memphis covered 38.46 % of the time
Central Florida covered 61.54 % of the time
Central Florida covered 100.00 % of the time at home
Central Florida covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites
Here is the way our model sees this one. Note that there are two scores listed. The first one uses data from the entire season. The 2nd one uses only the last 4 games.
Memphis 64.0 35 Central Florida -2.5 44 Memphis 64.0 28 Central Florida -2.5 34
Since the season-ending injury to UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the loss of wide receiver Jaylon Robinson, point production has been down for UCF. But that’s where being able to run the model with different time frame parameters comes in handy. As you can see, just using the last 4 games, UCF is still predicted to win by 6.
We’re going to buck the line move here and take the added value. Memphis has lost 3 of their last 4 games and this is a revenge spot for UCF, having lost in the Liberty Bowl last year when the Tigers came from behind to win 51-50. Being undefeated at home doesn’t hurt.