Free Pick – Memphis at UCF – College Football – 10/22/21

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UCF will host Memphis on Friday night with kickoff set for 7 PM EST. Memphis is currently a -1 point road favorite with a total of 63. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

UCF comes into this game at 3-3 overall and 1-2 in conference play. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, their losses have been close and they did beat a decent Boise State team to start the year. Of note, UCF is 3-0 at home.

Memphis isn’t faring much better. They are 4-3 overall and 1-2 in conference play. As with UCF, at this point in the season the chances of making any noise within the conference are pretty much toast, so the focus becomes qualifying for a Bowl game.

Head to Head History

10/17/2020  Central Florida          49  - 2.5  at Memphis                  50
12/ 1/2018  Memphis                  41  + 3.0  at Central Florida          56
10/13/2018  Central Florida          31  - 5.0  at Memphis                  30
12/ 2/2017  Memphis                  55  + 7.0  at Central Florida          62
 9/30/2017  Memphis                  13  + 5.5  at Central Florida          40
10/ 5/2013  Central Florida          24  - 9.0  at Memphis                  17
10/20/2012  Central Florida          35  -22.0  at Memphis                  17
10/29/2011  Memphis                   0  +29.5  at Central Florida          41
11/27/2010  Central Florida          37  -26.0  at Memphis                  17
10/ 3/2009  Memphis                  14  + 7.0  at Central Florida          32
11/22/2008  Central Florida          28  + 5.0  at Memphis                  21
 9/22/2007  Memphis                  20  + 6.5  at Central Florida          56
11/11/2006  Central Florida          26  + 1.5  at Memphis                  24
10/ 8/2005  Memphis                  17  - 3.0  at Central Florida          38
  
   average outcome:
     Memphis                 24.0  Central Florida         39.6
     margin =  15.64
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Memphis                 36.6  Central Florida         45.8
     margin =   9.13
  
   average result when the home team is Central Florida        
     Memphis                 22.9  Central Florida         46.4
     margin =  23.57
  
   average result when the home team is Memphis                
     Central Florida         32.9  Memphis                 25.1
     margin =  -7.71
  
    61.54 % of games went Over
    71.43 % went Over at Central Florida        
  
   average total points per game =  63.64
   time-weighted average total   =  82.38
  
   the home team covered  84.62 % of the time
   the road team covered  15.38 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  8.73
  
   the favorite  covered  38.46 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  61.54 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.04
  
   the favorite won SU    71.43 % of the time
  
   Memphis                 covered  38.46 % of the time
   Central Florida         covered  61.54 % of the time
  
   Central Florida         covered 100.00 % of the time at home
   Central Florida         covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here is the way our model sees this one. Note that there are two scores listed. The first one uses data from the entire season. The 2nd one uses only the last 4 games.

Memphis                   64.0          35           
Central Florida           -2.5          44
  
Memphis                   64.0          28           
Central Florida           -2.5          34

Since the season-ending injury to UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the loss of wide receiver Jaylon Robinson, point production has been down for UCF. But that’s where being able to run the model with different time frame parameters comes in handy. As you can see, just using the last 4 games, UCF is still predicted to win by 6.

We’re going to buck the line move here and take the added value. Memphis has lost 3 of their last 4 games and this is a revenge spot for UCF, having lost in the Liberty Bowl last year when the Tigers came from behind to win 51-50. Being undefeated at home doesn’t hurt.

UFC +1