Iowa at Wisconsin Big 10 College Football Free Pick – 10/30/21

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iowa at wisconsin pick
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If you like defensive football this game might be a good one to tune in to as Wisconsin hosts Iowa on Saturday at 12 noon EST. The Badgers are favored by -3.5 with a current posted total of 36.5.

After a shaky start to their season Wisconsin has now won 3 in a row. They sit a 4-3 overall and are very much alive in the Big 10 West division at 2-2. No one should be surprised as the Badgers were winning games “statistically” early in the season, just not on the scoreboard.

Iowa, once ranked #2 in the nation, comes in at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play. That 3-1 mark is good for 2nd in the Big 10 West making this a huge game with Wisconsin right on their tails in 3rd.

Head to Head History Iowa – Wisconsin

12/12/2020  Wisconsin                 7  - 1.0  at Iowa                     28
11/ 9/2019  Iowa                     22  + 8.5  at Wisconsin                24
 9/22/2018  Wisconsin                28  - 3.0  at Iowa                     17
11/11/2017  Iowa                     14  +12.0  at Wisconsin                38
10/22/2016  Wisconsin                17  - 4.0  at Iowa                      9
10/ 3/2015  Iowa                     10  + 5.0  at Wisconsin                 6
11/22/2014  Wisconsin                26  -10.0  at Iowa                     24
11/ 2/2013  Wisconsin                28  - 9.5  at Iowa                      9
10/23/2010  Wisconsin                31  + 6.5  at Iowa                     30
10/17/2009  Iowa                     20  + 2.5  at Wisconsin                10
10/18/2008  Wisconsin                16  + 4.0  at Iowa                     38
 9/22/2007  Iowa                     13  + 9.5  at Wisconsin                17
11/11/2006  Wisconsin                24  + 1.0  at Iowa                     21
11/12/2005  Iowa                     20  + 3.0  at Wisconsin                10
11/20/2004  Wisconsin                 7  + 3.0  at Iowa                     30
11/22/2003  Iowa                     27  + 2.0  at Wisconsin                21
11/ 2/2002  Wisconsin                 3  + 9.5  at Iowa                     20
11/ 3/2001  Iowa                     28  + 1.0  at Wisconsin                34
10/28/2000  Wisconsin                13  -16.0  at Iowa                      7
11/13/1999  Iowa                      3  +31.5  at Wisconsin                41
10/24/1998  Wisconsin                31  - 6.5  at Iowa                      0
11/ 8/1997  Iowa                     10  - 8.5  at Wisconsin                13
11/16/1996  Wisconsin                 0  + 2.5  at Iowa                     31
11/18/1995  Iowa                     33  + 7.0  at Wisconsin                20
10/10/1992  Wisconsin                22  + 9.5  at Iowa                     23
10/12/1991  Iowa                     10  -19.0  at Wisconsin                 6
10/13/1990  Wisconsin                10  +19.0  at Iowa                     30
  
   average outcome:
     Iowa                    19.5  Wisconsin               18.6
     margin =  -0.89
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Iowa                    18.4  Wisconsin               20.8
     margin =   2.39
  
   average result when the home team is Wisconsin              
     Iowa                    17.5  Wisconsin               20.0
     margin =   2.50
  
   average result when the home team is Iowa                   
     Wisconsin               17.5  Iowa                    21.1
     margin =   3.60
  
    40.91 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Wisconsin              
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  38.15
   time-weighted average total   =  39.22
  
   the home team covered  48.15 % of the time
   the road team covered  51.85 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.91
  
   the favorite  covered  44.44 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  55.56 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.61
  
   the favorite won SU    66.67 % of the time
  
   Iowa                    covered  55.56 % of the time
   Wisconsin               covered  44.44 % of the time
  
   Wisconsin               covered  41.67 % of the time at home
   Wisconsin               covered  30.00 % of the time as home favorites

This is an interesting game in that Wisconsin has been underrated and not playing up to their potential while Iowa has been overrated and not quite as good as they have seemed. Certainly no one really believed the Hawkeyes were the 2nd best college football team in the nation. But they are a good football team.

Our Pick

It should come as no surprise that our model sees this as a close, low scoring game that goes way under the current total of 36.5. But we’d be cautious playing this one under.

These low scoring games also tend to present some value with the underdog getting anything more than a field goal but that’s not where we’re going with this one.

We think this spot sets up nicely for the Badgers. After a slow start, they have a chance to really make some noise this year in the Big 10 and if that’s to happen, it has to start this week at home with a win over Iowa.

If that’s not motivation enough, this is also a revenge spot for Wisconsin for last last years 28-7 loss at Iowa. Look for Wisconsin to return the favor this year and to do so with an exclamation point.

Wisconsin -3 -120 or better