Free Pick – NC State at Boston College – College Football – 10/16/21

Boston College will host NC State in ACC action this week. The game kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and will be televised by the ACC Network. NC State opened as a -2 point road favorite and has been bet up to -3 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total is 52.

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NC State comes into this game at 4-1 overall. They have played just one conference game and are 1-0 in conference play, good for 2nd place in the ACC Atlantic division. That lone conference win was a good one as it came against Clemson, 27-21 in OT. Their loss came against Miss State, 24-10.

Boston College is also 4-1. They also only played 1 conference game and that game, just like NC State, was against Clemson. They played the Tigers tough but lost a 16-10 decision. That puts BC towards the bottom of the ACC Atlantic standings but it’s only one game with a long way to go, making this matchup with the Wolfpack crucial.

Head to Head History

10/19/2019  North Carolina State     24  - 4.0  at Boston College           45
10/ 6/2018  Boston College           23  + 6.0  at North Carolina State     28
11/11/2017  North Carolina State     17  - 3.0  at Boston College           14
10/29/2016  Boston College           21  +15.0  at North Carolina State     14
11/ 7/2015  North Carolina State     24  - 4.0  at Boston College            8
10/11/2014  Boston College           30  + 3.0  at North Carolina State     14
11/16/2013  North Carolina State     21  + 7.5  at Boston College           38
11/24/2012  Boston College           10  +14.0  at North Carolina State     27
11/12/2011  North Carolina State     10  - 2.5  at Boston College           14
10/ 9/2010  Boston College           17  +10.0  at North Carolina State     44
10/17/2009  North Carolina State     20  + 3.0  at Boston College           52
10/ 4/2008  Boston College           38  - 8.0  at North Carolina State     31
 9/ 8/2007  North Carolina State     17  +15.0  at Boston College           37
 9/23/2006  Boston College           15  - 7.5  at North Carolina State     17
11/12/2005  North Carolina State     10  + 5.5  at Boston College           30

There are a lot of similarities between these two teams seasons thus far. They have both played Clemson tough and they both played an SEC team. BC beat Missouri in OT while NC State lost to Miss St. They also each played a few weak teams to help build their 4-1 records. Both of these teams had last week off so they should be rested and healthy.

The numbers below are the season yards per point numbers for both teams. Offense first, then defense. We can see BC ha the better number offensively (11.9) while NC State edges out the Eagles on defense by a point.

Here is how our model sees the game

North Carolina State      -2.0          21           
Boston College            52.0          15
  
North Carolina State      -2.0          22           
Boston College            52.0          20

The first score is using season to date data and the 2nd uses just the last 4 games. Since both teams have played 5 games, the 2nd score simply drops each teams first game. Both games were blowouts against weak teams so in this case, the 2nd score is likely a more accurate reflection of how this game playes out.

We make this game a pick. So, any points available will be worth taking. In this case we can grab a field goal (on Tuesday). We’d imagine this number will shrink as the week moves along.

Boston College +3