Boston College will host NC State in ACC action this week. The game kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and will be televised by the ACC Network. NC State opened as a -2 point road favorite and has been bet up to -3 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total is 52.
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NC State comes into this game at 4-1 overall. They have played just one conference game and are 1-0 in conference play, good for 2nd place in the ACC Atlantic division. That lone conference win was a good one as it came against Clemson, 27-21 in OT. Their loss came against Miss State, 24-10.
Boston College is also 4-1. They also only played 1 conference game and that game, just like NC State, was against Clemson. They played the Tigers tough but lost a 16-10 decision. That puts BC towards the bottom of the ACC Atlantic standings but it’s only one game with a long way to go, making this matchup with the Wolfpack crucial.
Head to Head History
10/19/2019 North Carolina State 24 - 4.0 at Boston College 45 10/ 6/2018 Boston College 23 + 6.0 at North Carolina State 28 11/11/2017 North Carolina State 17 - 3.0 at Boston College 14 10/29/2016 Boston College 21 +15.0 at North Carolina State 14 11/ 7/2015 North Carolina State 24 - 4.0 at Boston College 8 10/11/2014 Boston College 30 + 3.0 at North Carolina State 14 11/16/2013 North Carolina State 21 + 7.5 at Boston College 38 11/24/2012 Boston College 10 +14.0 at North Carolina State 27 11/12/2011 North Carolina State 10 - 2.5 at Boston College 14 10/ 9/2010 Boston College 17 +10.0 at North Carolina State 44 10/17/2009 North Carolina State 20 + 3.0 at Boston College 52 10/ 4/2008 Boston College 38 - 8.0 at North Carolina State 31 9/ 8/2007 North Carolina State 17 +15.0 at Boston College 37 9/23/2006 Boston College 15 - 7.5 at North Carolina State 17 11/12/2005 North Carolina State 10 + 5.5 at Boston College 30
There are a lot of similarities between these two teams seasons thus far. They have both played Clemson tough and they both played an SEC team. BC beat Missouri in OT while NC State lost to Miss St. They also each played a few weak teams to help build their 4-1 records. Both of these teams had last week off so they should be rested and healthy.
The numbers below are the season yards per point numbers for both teams. Offense first, then defense. We can see BC ha the better number offensively (11.9) while NC State edges out the Eagles on defense by a point.
|NC ST 14.4||17.8|
Here is how our model sees the game
North Carolina State -2.0 21 Boston College 52.0 15 North Carolina State -2.0 22 Boston College 52.0 20
The first score is using season to date data and the 2nd uses just the last 4 games. Since both teams have played 5 games, the 2nd score simply drops each teams first game. Both games were blowouts against weak teams so in this case, the 2nd score is likely a more accurate reflection of how this game playes out.
We make this game a pick. So, any points available will be worth taking. In this case we can grab a field goal (on Tuesday). We’d imagine this number will shrink as the week moves along.