Free Pick – Ole Miss at Alabama – College Football – 10/2/21

ole miss at alabama free cfb pick ats
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#1 Alabama will host #12 Ole Miss in an SEC game Saturday with obvious national implications. The Tide are currently favored by -14.5 with a total of 79.5. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST and can be seen on CBS.

Alabama comes into this game undefeated at 4-0. Alabama survived a scare from Florida on September 18th, a game which the Tide won 31-29. Their other wins came against Miami, Mercer and Southern Miss.

Ole Miss comes into this one also undefeated at 3-0. But as is often the case this early in the season, untested. They beat Louisville, Austin Peay and Tulane, scoring 43+ points each time out.

Last 10 Games Between These Teams

10/10/2020  Alabama                  63  -23.0  at Ole Miss                 48
 9/28/2019  Ole Miss                 31  +38.0  at Alabama                  59
 9/15/2018  Alabama                  62  -23.0  at Ole Miss                  7
 9/30/2017  Ole Miss                  3  +28.0  at Alabama                  66
 9/17/2016  Alabama                  48  -10.5  at Ole Miss                 43
 9/19/2015  Ole Miss                 43  + 8.5  at Alabama                  37
10/ 4/2014  Alabama                  17  - 4.5  at Ole Miss                 23
 9/28/2013  Ole Miss                  0  +14.0  at Alabama                  25
 9/29/2012  Ole Miss                 14  +30.0  at Alabama                  33
10/15/2011  Alabama                  52  -27.5  at Ole Miss                  7
10/16/2010  Ole Miss                 10  +20.5  at Alabama                  23

You don’t have to go back too far to find games in which Ole Miss had a shot. In fact, last years game was tied at 21 at the half, a game in which Alabama won 61-48. Alabama had over 700 yards of offense in that one but Ole Miss managed 647 of their own yards.

2014 thru 2016 also saw games decided by 6 points or less. So there’s no question that Ole Miss comes into this game feeling they can compete and score on the Tide which makes them a very live and dangerous dog in this spot.

This game actually opened at Alabama -20 at CIRCA in Vegas. Most of the rest of the books opened around -16.5 though Draft Kings did post -17.5.

The early bird gets the worm in sports betting. We agree with those early takers at +20 and +17.5. We actually think there may still be a little value left in the +14.5’s that are still available as we feel Ole Miss will put some points on the board.

Small play

Ole Miss +14.5

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