USC at Colorado PAC 12 College Football Pick ATS – 10/2/21

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usc at colorado free cfb ats
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USC at Colorado

Colorado will host USC on Saturday in PAC-12 action. The visiting Trojans find themselves as a -7.5 point road favorite this week with a current total of 51. The game can be seen on on the PAC-12 Network with kickoff set for 2 PM EST.

The 2021 season isn’t going as planned for either of these teams. After opening 1-1 USC canned it’s coach and woke up in the 2nd half of game #3 to blow out Washington State. But they followed that up with a home loss last week to Oregon State.

Colorado can’t get off the ground. They opened the year with a win over Northern Arizona but have dropped three straight since. In losses to Texas A&M, Minnesota and Arizona State they scored just 20 points total (7, 0, 13)

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/25/2019  Southern Cal             35  -11.5  at Colorado                 31
10/13/2018  Colorado                 20  + 7.0  at Southern Cal             31
11/11/2017  Southern Cal             38  -13.5  at Colorado                 24
10/ 8/2016  Colorado                 17  + 5.5  at Southern Cal             21
11/13/2015  Southern Cal             27  -17.0  at Colorado                 24
10/18/2014  Colorado                 28  +20.0  at Southern Cal             56
11/23/2013  Southern Cal             47  -22.5  at Colorado                 29
10/20/2012  Colorado                  6  +40.5  at Southern Cal             50
11/ 4/2011  Southern Cal             42  -21.0  at Colorado                 17
 9/14/2002  Southern Cal             40  + 3.0  at Colorado                  3
 9/ 9/2000  Colorado                 14  + 7.0  at Southern Cal             17
  
   average outcome:
     Southern Cal            36.7  Colorado                19.4
     margin = -17.36
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Southern Cal            34.7  Colorado                23.8
     margin = -10.90
  
   average result when the home team is Colorado               
     Southern Cal            38.2  Colorado                21.3
     margin = -16.83
  
   average result when the home team is Southern Cal           
     Colorado                17.0  Southern Cal            35.0
     margin =  18.00
  
    36.36 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Colorado               
  
   average total points per game =  56.09
   time-weighted average total   =  58.52
  
   the home team covered  54.55 % of the time
   the road team covered  45.45 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.77
  
   the favorite  covered  45.45 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  54.55 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -4.68
  
   the favorite won SU    90.91 % of the time
  
   Southern Cal            covered  54.55 % of the time
   Colorado                covered  45.45 % of the time
  
   Colorado                covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Colorado                covered  60.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Our Pick

Recent history and the high expectations for this Colorado program coming into this season would normally have us looking to play the Buffs as a home dog here. But one lesson sports bettors should learn early in their careers is to never ask a bad team to win (or cover) for you.

Colorado simply can’t get anything going offensively. USC has the horses to score points in bunches if they can put it all together. With the potential for only one team doing the scoring in this one. we’ll go under the total. Our model agrees.

UNDER 51