USC at Colorado
Colorado will host USC on Saturday in PAC-12 action. The visiting Trojans find themselves as a -7.5 point road favorite this week with a current total of 51. The game can be seen on on the PAC-12 Network with kickoff set for 2 PM EST.
The 2021 season isn’t going as planned for either of these teams. After opening 1-1 USC canned it’s coach and woke up in the 2nd half of game #3 to blow out Washington State. But they followed that up with a home loss last week to Oregon State.
Colorado can’t get off the ground. They opened the year with a win over Northern Arizona but have dropped three straight since. In losses to Texas A&M, Minnesota and Arizona State they scored just 20 points total (7, 0, 13)
head-to-head history (lined games): 10/25/2019 Southern Cal 35 -11.5 at Colorado 31 10/13/2018 Colorado 20 + 7.0 at Southern Cal 31 11/11/2017 Southern Cal 38 -13.5 at Colorado 24 10/ 8/2016 Colorado 17 + 5.5 at Southern Cal 21 11/13/2015 Southern Cal 27 -17.0 at Colorado 24 10/18/2014 Colorado 28 +20.0 at Southern Cal 56 11/23/2013 Southern Cal 47 -22.5 at Colorado 29 10/20/2012 Colorado 6 +40.5 at Southern Cal 50 11/ 4/2011 Southern Cal 42 -21.0 at Colorado 17 9/14/2002 Southern Cal 40 + 3.0 at Colorado 3 9/ 9/2000 Colorado 14 + 7.0 at Southern Cal 17 average outcome: Southern Cal 36.7 Colorado 19.4 margin = -17.36 time-weighted average outcome: Southern Cal 34.7 Colorado 23.8 margin = -10.90 average result when the home team is Colorado Southern Cal 38.2 Colorado 21.3 margin = -16.83 average result when the home team is Southern Cal Colorado 17.0 Southern Cal 35.0 margin = 18.00 36.36 % of games went Over 50.00 % went Over at Colorado average total points per game = 56.09 time-weighted average total = 58.52 the home team covered 54.55 % of the time the road team covered 45.45 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -0.77 the favorite covered 45.45 % of the time the underdog covered 54.55 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -4.68 the favorite won SU 90.91 % of the time Southern Cal covered 54.55 % of the time Colorado covered 45.45 % of the time Colorado covered 50.00 % of the time at home Colorado covered 60.00 % of the time as home underdogs
Recent history and the high expectations for this Colorado program coming into this season would normally have us looking to play the Buffs as a home dog here. But one lesson sports bettors should learn early in their careers is to never ask a bad team to win (or cover) for you.
Colorado simply can’t get anything going offensively. USC has the horses to score points in bunches if they can put it all together. With the potential for only one team doing the scoring in this one. we’ll go under the total. Our model agrees.