Utah State at Air Force Free College Football Pick ATS – 9/18/21

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utah state at air force pick
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Utah State at Air Force

Air Force will host Utah State on Saturday with kick off set for 7:30 PM EST. Air Force is favored by 9 with a current total of 54.5. This will be the first Mountain West Conference game of 2021 for both teams.

Both teams come into the game at 2-0. Air Force knocked off Navy and Lafayette while Utah State owns wins over Washington State and North Dakota. For Utah State, they’ve already surpassed last years win total.

Here’s a look at the history between Air Force and Utah State.

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/ 3/2020  Air Force                35  -10.0  at Utah State                7
10/26/2019  Utah State                7  + 3.5  at Air Force                31
 9/22/2018  Air Force                32  +10.0  at Utah State               42
11/25/2017  Utah State               35  + 1.5  at Air Force                38
 9/24/2016  Air Force                27  - 4.5  at Utah State               20
11/14/2015  Utah State               28  - 2.0  at Air Force                35
10/11/2014  Air Force                16  + 7.5  at Utah State               34
 9/ 7/2013  Utah State               52  - 9.5  at Air Force                20
  
   average outcome:
     Utah State              28.1  Air Force               29.3
     margin =   1.13
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Utah State              23.7  Air Force               31.3
     margin =   7.66
  
   average result when the home team is Air Force              
     Utah State              30.5  Air Force               31.0
     margin =   0.50
  
   average result when the home team is Utah State             
     Air Force               27.5  Utah State              25.8
     margin =  -1.75
  
    57.14 % of games went Over
    75.00 % went Over at Air Force              
  
   average total points per game =  57.38
   time-weighted average total   =  54.98
  
   the home team covered  57.14 % of the time
   the road team covered  42.86 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.21
  
   the favorite  covered  85.71 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  14.29 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  9.50
  
   the favorite won SU    87.50 % of the time
  
   Utah State              covered  28.57 % of the time
   Air Force               covered  71.43 % of the time
  
   Air Force               covered  75.00 % of the time at home
   Air Force               covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites

Utah State returns just about everyone who started last season while Air Force is intact defensively but returns just 4 to the defense.

We think that the Air Force defense could be the key to this game. Taking a quick look back to last season we see this Utah State offense scored 13, 7, 9, 16, 41 and 7. Before getting too excited about the 41, that was against New Mexico.

Defensively last year, Air Force gave up 7, 17, 49, 0, 7 and 10. The 49 came against Boise State. The Falcons had a yards per point number of 20.3 which was 3rd best in the nation. Sure, schedule strength is a factor. But regardless of who you play, 20.3 equals a legit defense.

Utah State is an improved team, but not too far removed from last years 1-5 team. The  total on this game moved from 50 to 54.5 so we think we have some added value on the under in a game that we were looking to go in that direction to begin with.

UNDER 54.5