Utah State at Air Force
Air Force will host Utah State on Saturday with kick off set for 7:30 PM EST. Air Force is favored by 9 with a current total of 54.5. This will be the first Mountain West Conference game of 2021 for both teams.
Both teams come into the game at 2-0. Air Force knocked off Navy and Lafayette while Utah State owns wins over Washington State and North Dakota. For Utah State, they’ve already surpassed last years win total.
Here’s a look at the history between Air Force and Utah State.
head-to-head history (lined games):
12/ 3/2020 Air Force 35 -10.0 at Utah State 7
10/26/2019 Utah State 7 + 3.5 at Air Force 31
9/22/2018 Air Force 32 +10.0 at Utah State 42
11/25/2017 Utah State 35 + 1.5 at Air Force 38
9/24/2016 Air Force 27 - 4.5 at Utah State 20
11/14/2015 Utah State 28 - 2.0 at Air Force 35
10/11/2014 Air Force 16 + 7.5 at Utah State 34
9/ 7/2013 Utah State 52 - 9.5 at Air Force 20
average outcome:
Utah State 28.1 Air Force 29.3
margin = 1.13
time-weighted average outcome:
Utah State 23.7 Air Force 31.3
margin = 7.66
average result when the home team is Air Force
Utah State 30.5 Air Force 31.0
margin = 0.50
average result when the home team is Utah State
Air Force 27.5 Utah State 25.8
margin = -1.75
57.14 % of games went Over
75.00 % went Over at Air Force
average total points per game = 57.38
time-weighted average total = 54.98
the home team covered 57.14 % of the time
the road team covered 42.86 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.21
the favorite covered 85.71 % of the time
the underdog covered 14.29 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 9.50
the favorite won SU 87.50 % of the time
Utah State covered 28.57 % of the time
Air Force covered 71.43 % of the time
Air Force covered 75.00 % of the time at home
Air Force covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites
Utah State returns just about everyone who started last season while Air Force is intact defensively but returns just 4 to the defense.
We think that the Air Force defense could be the key to this game. Taking a quick look back to last season we see this Utah State offense scored 13, 7, 9, 16, 41 and 7. Before getting too excited about the 41, that was against New Mexico.
Defensively last year, Air Force gave up 7, 17, 49, 0, 7 and 10. The 49 came against Boise State. The Falcons had a yards per point number of 20.3 which was 3rd best in the nation. Sure, schedule strength is a factor. But regardless of who you play, 20.3 equals a legit defense.
Utah State is an improved team, but not too far removed from last years 1-5 team. The total on this game moved from 50 to 54.5 so we think we have some added value on the under in a game that we were looking to go in that direction to begin with.