Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 5 NFL Pick – 10/10/21

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bills at chiefs pick
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In the biggest game on the Sunday docket the 3-1 Bills head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on a Chiefs’ team that snapped their two-game skid in their last game.

The Chiefs are a 2.5-point home favorite in this AFC contest with a total of 56.5 points. The public has backed Buffalo so far, as they opened as a 3-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 2.5-point dog.

After Week 4 the Bills are 3-1 and 3-1 ATS and the Chiefs are 2-2 and 1-3 ATS.

These teams met last season in the AFC title game in Kansas City where the Chiefs beat the Bills 38-24 and they also beat them on the road in the regular season.

In their last game the Bills won their third in a row with a 40-0 beat down over the Houston Texans. They rank tied for second in the NFL averaging 33.5 ppg and they have scored at least 40 points in each of their last two games.

The Chiefs got back in the win column in their last game where they were on the road and beat the Philadelphia Eagles 42-30. While they are the team the Bills are tied with averaging 33.5 ppg their defense ranks second to last in the league giving up an average of 31.3 ppg.

The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games facing the Bills including covering in both games facing them last season.

Not Just the Offnese

While the offense has been lighting it up for the Bills in the last three games the team also ranks first in the NFL in scoring defense (11 ppg). However, this game facing KC may be their first real test, as they have not played a tough schedule facing the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington Football Team, and the Texans, none of which have winning records.

Josh Allen has passed for 1,05 yards with 9 TD and only 2 INT but only ranks 18th in QBR. He has been ok but has not looked like the player that came in second in the MVP voting last season.

Stefon Diggs leads the team with 305 receiving yards and Emmanuel Sanders has 286 receiving yards. Devin Singletary (259 yards 1 TD) is averaging over 5 yards per carry and in the win over the Texans in the last game he rushed for 79 yards averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

The Kansas City defense has been torn apart this season and only ranks 27th in the NFL against the pass and 30th against the run. On top of that, their pass rush only has seven sacks through four games.

Mahomes Gets it Done

Patrick Mahomes passed for 5 TD in the win over the Eagles in the last game and leads the league in QBR and TD (14). He has had to play well with the major defensive issues the team has.

Tyreek Hill had a huge game against Philly with 186 receiving yards while the next leading target only had 23. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last two games and after a costly fumble in two straight games he did not have one in the last game.

Buffalo has the top ranked defense but they have not played a team with an explosive offense like the Chiefs have.

The Prediction 

The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games while the Chiefs have failed to cover in six of their last seven games as a home favorite. However, do not look for those trends to continue. KC’s defense has been bad but Mahomes has been great, as usual.

He will have another big game and while the Chiefs will give up a lot of points they will score more. They won and covered in both games facing Buffalo last season and they will do that in this game as well only giving 2.5 points at home.

PICK:  Chiefs -2.5