Free Pick – Wake Forest at North Carolina – CFB – 11/6/21

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wake forest at north carolina free cfb pick ats
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North Carolina will host Wake Forest in ACC college football action this Saturday. Kickoff is set for 12 noon EST. The Tar Heels opened as 1 point favorites and have been bet up to -2.5. The total is 76.5.

Wake Forest keeps finding ways to win. They come into this game undefeated at 8-0 overall and 5-0 in conference play. As impressive as that is, they can’t afford a slip up. NC State is right on their tail at 3-1 and Clemson is still lurking at 4-2.

The Tar Heels are 4-4 overall and 3-3 in conference play. With just 3 conference games remaining, North Carolina obviously needs to win out to have a shot at the conference championship game. But they do still have division leader Pitt on the dance card, next week.

Head to Head History – Wake Forest North Carolina

1/14/2020  Wake Forest              53  +13.5  at North Carolina           59
 9/13/2019  North Carolina           18  + 3.0  at Wake Forest              24
10/17/2015  Wake Forest              14  +17.0  at North Carolina           50
 9/ 8/2012  North Carolina           27  -10.5  at Wake Forest              28
10/29/2011  Wake Forest              24  + 7.0  at North Carolina           49
10/27/2007  North Carolina           10  + 7.0  at Wake Forest              37
10/28/2006  Wake Forest              24  - 8.0  at North Carolina           17
11/13/2004  North Carolina           31  + 6.0  at Wake Forest              24
11/ 8/2003  Wake Forest              34  - 6.5  at North Carolina           42
10/26/2002  North Carolina            0  + 5.5  at Wake Forest              31
11/10/2001  Wake Forest              32  +14.0  at North Carolina           31
 9/ 9/2000  North Carolina           35  -10.0  at Wake Forest              14
11/ 6/1999  Wake Forest              19  - 8.5  at North Carolina            3
10/24/1998  North Carolina           38  - 4.0  at Wake Forest              31
10/11/1997  Wake Forest              12  +22.0  at North Carolina           30
10/ 5/1996  North Carolina           45  -22.0  at Wake Forest               6
10/21/1995  Wake Forest               7  +23.5  at North Carolina           31
11/12/1994  North Carolina           50  -23.0  at Wake Forest               0
10/ 9/1993  Wake Forest              35  +22.0  at North Carolina           45
 9/ 5/1992  North Carolina           35  - 8.5  at Wake Forest              17
10/12/1991  Wake Forest              10  +20.5  at North Carolina           24
10/ 6/1990  North Carolina           31  + 5.0  at Wake Forest              24
  
   average outcome:
     Wake Forest             22.7  North Carolina          31.9
     margin =   9.14
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Wake Forest             33.2  North Carolina          40.2
     margin =   6.96
  
   average result when the home team is North Carolina         
     Wake Forest             24.0  North Carolina          34.6
     margin =  10.64
  
   average result when the home team is Wake Forest            
     North Carolina          29.1  Wake Forest             21.5
     margin =  -7.64
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
    80.00 % went Over at North Carolina         
    (since        2002 )
  
   average total points per game =  54.59
   time-weighted average total   =  73.44
  
   the home team covered  40.91 % of the time
   the road team covered  59.09 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.45
  
   the favorite  covered  54.55 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  45.45 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.91
  
   the favorite won SU    77.27 % of the time
  
   Wake Forest             covered  45.45 % of the time
   North Carolina          covered  54.55 % of the time
  
   North Carolina          covered  45.45 % of the time at home
   North Carolina          covered  37.50 % of the time as home favorites

Our model sees this game as a toss up, regardless of the time frame parameters used. Below are score predictions using full season data, the last 4 games and the last 7 games.

Wake Forest               76.5          38           
North Carolina            -2.5          38
  
Wake Forest               76.5          57           
North Carolina            -2.5          54
  
Wake Forest               76.5          44           
North Carolina            -2.5          43