Tulane hosts Houston on Thursday night as 6 point home underdogs, up from an opening line of 4, with a total of 59. The game kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.
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Tulane opened the season by going toe to toe with Oklahoma and followed that up by blowing out Morgan State. But they have since dropped 3 straight giving up buckets of points in two of those games.
Houston is off to a 4-1 start. However, as is so often the case early in the college football season, the quality of those 4 wins is suspect. Their toughest test to date came against Texas Tech in week one and that’s their lone loss, 38-21.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games):
10/ 8/2020 Tulane 31 + 4.5 at Houston 49
9/19/2019 Houston 31 + 5.0 at Tulane 38
11/15/2018 Tulane 17 + 8.5 at Houston 48
11/18/2017 Houston 17 - 9.0 at Tulane 20
11/12/2016 Tulane 18 +25.0 at Houston 30
10/16/2015 Houston 42 -21.0 at Tulane 7
11/ 8/2014 Tulane 31 +18.0 at Houston 24
11/24/2012 Tulane 17 +12.0 at Houston 40
11/10/2011 Houston 73 -35.0 at Tulane 17
9/25/2010 Tulane 23 +19.5 at Houston 42
10/17/2009 Houston 44 -17.0 at Tulane 16
11/ 8/2008 Tulane 14 +16.0 at Houston 42
9/15/2007 Houston 34 -12.5 at Tulane 10
9/ 9/2006 Tulane 7 +14.0 at Houston 45
10/ 8/2005 Tulane 14 + 0.0 vs Houston 35
10/30/2004 Tulane 3 +10.0 at Houston 24
10/11/2003 Houston 45 - 1.0 at Tulane 42
9/ 7/2002 Tulane 34 + 3.0 at Houston 13
11/ 4/2000 Houston 23 + 2.0 at Tulane 41
11/ 6/1999 Tulane 31 +12.5 at Houston 36
11/21/1998 Houston 20 +15.5 at Tulane 48
11/22/1997 Tulane 44 - 7.0 at Houston 10
11/ 2/1996 Houston 20 + 1.5 at Tulane 17
average outcome:
Houston 34.2 Tulane 23.5
margin = -10.74
time-weighted average outcome:
Houston 36.1 Tulane 24.4
margin = -11.72
average result when the home team is Tulane
Houston 34.9 Tulane 25.6
margin = -9.30
average result when the home team is Houston
Tulane 22.5 Houston 33.6
margin = 11.08
38.89 % of games went Over
42.86 % went Over at Tulane
(since 2002 )
average total points per game = 57.70
time-weighted average total = 60.53
the home team covered 45.45 % of the time
the road team covered 54.55 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.16
the favorite covered 68.18 % of the time
the underdog covered 31.82 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 6.61
the favorite won SU 81.82 % of the time
Houston covered 56.52 % of the time
Tulane covered 43.48 % of the time
Tulane covered 40.00 % of the time at home
Tulane covered 16.67 % of the time as home underdogs
Certainly on paper, Houston comes up as the right side. Our model likes the Cougars in blowout fashion, by 20. They are simply doing everything better, and appear to be the better team. Hence, the 2 point line move off the openers from 4 to 6.
But we’d tread lightly here for a couple of reasons. The first being the aforementioned strength of opponent of Houston. The 2nd reason being the familiarity of the two teams with each other.
Our Pick
While Houston holds the upper hand in the series, they have taken turns winning over the last couple of years. It’s not as if there’s a built in talent gap as we so often see in some series.
Certainly nothing strong here, but we’ll buck the early money and lean towards Tulane. The number is likely to keep rising and at +7 we’d give it more consideration. We’ll also lean towards the over as neither of these teams plays much defense.