Houston at Tulane – College Football – 10/7/21

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houston at tulane cfb pick ats
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Tulane hosts Houston on Thursday night as 6 point home underdogs, up from an opening line of 4, with a total of 59. The game kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

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Tulane opened the season by going toe to toe with Oklahoma and followed that up by blowing out Morgan State. But they have since dropped 3 straight giving up buckets of points in two of those games.

Houston is off to a 4-1 start. However, as is so often the case early in the college football season, the quality of those 4 wins is suspect. Their toughest test to date came against Texas Tech in week one and that’s their lone loss, 38-21.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/ 8/2020  Tulane                   31  + 4.5  at Houston                  49
 9/19/2019  Houston                  31  + 5.0  at Tulane                   38
11/15/2018  Tulane                   17  + 8.5  at Houston                  48
11/18/2017  Houston                  17  - 9.0  at Tulane                   20
11/12/2016  Tulane                   18  +25.0  at Houston                  30
10/16/2015  Houston                  42  -21.0  at Tulane                    7
11/ 8/2014  Tulane                   31  +18.0  at Houston                  24
11/24/2012  Tulane                   17  +12.0  at Houston                  40
11/10/2011  Houston                  73  -35.0  at Tulane                   17
 9/25/2010  Tulane                   23  +19.5  at Houston                  42
10/17/2009  Houston                  44  -17.0  at Tulane                   16
11/ 8/2008  Tulane                   14  +16.0  at Houston                  42
 9/15/2007  Houston                  34  -12.5  at Tulane                   10
 9/ 9/2006  Tulane                    7  +14.0  at Houston                  45
10/ 8/2005  Tulane                   14  + 0.0  vs Houston                  35
10/30/2004  Tulane                    3  +10.0  at Houston                  24
10/11/2003  Houston                  45  - 1.0  at Tulane                   42
 9/ 7/2002  Tulane                   34  + 3.0  at Houston                  13
11/ 4/2000  Houston                  23  + 2.0  at Tulane                   41
11/ 6/1999  Tulane                   31  +12.5  at Houston                  36
11/21/1998  Houston                  20  +15.5  at Tulane                   48
11/22/1997  Tulane                   44  - 7.0  at Houston                  10
11/ 2/1996  Houston                  20  + 1.5  at Tulane                   17
  
   average outcome:
     Houston                 34.2  Tulane                  23.5
     margin = -10.74
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Houston                 36.1  Tulane                  24.4
     margin = -11.72
  
   average result when the home team is Tulane                 
     Houston                 34.9  Tulane                  25.6
     margin =  -9.30
  
   average result when the home team is Houston                
     Tulane                  22.5  Houston                 33.6
     margin =  11.08
  
    38.89 % of games went Over
    42.86 % went Over at Tulane                 
    (since        2002 )
  
   average total points per game =  57.70
   time-weighted average total   =  60.53
  
   the home team covered  45.45 % of the time
   the road team covered  54.55 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.16
  
   the favorite  covered  68.18 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  31.82 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  6.61
  
   the favorite won SU    81.82 % of the time
  
   Houston                 covered  56.52 % of the time
   Tulane                  covered  43.48 % of the time
  
   Tulane                  covered  40.00 % of the time at home
   Tulane                  covered  16.67 % of the time as home underdogs

Certainly on paper, Houston comes up as the right side. Our model likes the Cougars in blowout fashion, by 20. They are simply doing everything better, and appear to be the better team. Hence, the 2 point line move off the openers from 4 to 6.

But we’d tread lightly here for a couple of reasons. The first being the aforementioned strength of opponent of Houston. The 2nd reason being the familiarity of the two teams with each other.

Our Pick

While Houston holds the upper hand in the series, they have taken turns winning over the last couple of years. It’s not as if there’s a built in talent gap as we so often see in some series.

Certainly nothing strong here, but we’ll buck the early money and lean towards Tulane. The number is likely to keep rising and at +7 we’d give it more consideration. We’ll also lean towards the over as neither of these teams plays much defense.

Tulane +6 or more
OVER 59