Houston vs. Cincinnati – AAC Championship Pick – 12/4/21

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houston vs. cincinnati aac championship pick
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Cincinnati will host Houston for all the marbles in the AAC. Not only that, but a win here likely puts the Bearcats in the final 4 and would make them the first group of 5 team to make the college football playoff.

Cincinnati opened as a 10 point favorite and is now -10.5 at most shops with a few 11’s as well. The current posted total is 53, down from an opener of 55.

Houston – Cincinnati Head to Head

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
11/ 7/2020  Houston                  10  +13.0  at Cincinnati               38
10/12/2019  Cincinnati               38  - 9.5  at Houston                  23
 9/15/2016  Houston                  40  - 7.5  at Cincinnati               16
11/ 7/2015  Cincinnati               30  + 9.0  at Houston                  33
12/ 6/2014  Houston                  31  + 7.0  at Cincinnati               38
11/23/2013  Cincinnati               24  + 2.5  at Houston                  17
11/16/2002  Houston                  14  +16.0  at Cincinnati               47
10/20/2001  Cincinnati               29  -11.0  at Houston                  28
10/ 7/2000  Houston                  31  + 4.5  at Cincinnati               48
10/ 9/1999  Cincinnati               20  + 6.5  at Houston                  23
11/14/1998  Houston                  43  -10.0  at Cincinnati               44
10/18/1997  Cincinnati               38  - 7.0  at Houston                  41
10/19/1996  Houston                  20  + 1.0  at Cincinnati               31
11/13/1993  Cincinnati               41  - 1.0  at Houston                  17
  
   average outcome:
     Houston                 26.5  Cincinnati              34.4
     margin =   7.93
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Houston                 23.7  Cincinnati              32.6
     margin =   8.90
  
   average result when the home team is Cincinnati             
     Houston                 27.0  Cincinnati              37.4
     margin =  10.43
  
   average result when the home team is Houston                
     Cincinnati              31.4  Houston                 26.0
     margin =  -5.43
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Cincinnati             
    (since        2001 )
  
   average total points per game =  60.93
   time-weighted average total   =  56.37
  
   the home team covered  53.85 % of the time
   the road team covered  46.15 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.65
  
   the favorite  covered  53.85 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  46.15 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.81
  
   the favorite won SU    78.57 % of the time
  
   Houston                 covered  23.08 % of the time
   Cincinnati              covered  76.92 % of the time
  
   Cincinnati              covered  83.33 % of the time at home
   Cincinnati              covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here’s how our model sees the AAC Championship game.

Houston                   55.5          17           
Cincinnati               -10.0          35 using full season data
  
Houston                   55.5          14           
Cincinnati               -10.0          32 data from last 4 games 
  
Houston                   55.5          21           
Cincinnati               -10.0          39 data from last 7 games

Our Pick

Make no mistake, the Bearcats want to leave nothing to chance in 2021. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulders on Saturday when they take on Houston for the Title.

A year ago, Cincinnati finished the season undefeated at 9-0 and beat Tulsa in the AAC Title game. They were then snubbed for a shot at the playoffs and went on to go toe to toe with Georgia in one of the most entertaining Bowl games of 2020.

While they likely would not have been considered regardless of the score in their win over Tulsa in last years Title game, they didn’t do themselves any favors by squeaking by 27-24. A 27-24 type of an outcome on Saturday will likely get them snubbed again.

We agree with the models predictions above. Expect the Bearcats to not only win this game but to do so with an exclamation point leaving no doubt about their legitimacy.

There are a few 10’s on the board with juice and the number is not likely to come back down off the current -10.5 at most shops. In fact, it’s likely to rise.

Cincinnati -10 -117