Cincinnati will host Houston for all the marbles in the AAC. Not only that, but a win here likely puts the Bearcats in the final 4 and would make them the first group of 5 team to make the college football playoff.
Cincinnati opened as a 10 point favorite and is now -10.5 at most shops with a few 11’s as well. The current posted total is 53, down from an opener of 55.
Houston – Cincinnati Head to Head
head-to-head history (lined games):
11/ 7/2020 Houston 10 +13.0 at Cincinnati 38
10/12/2019 Cincinnati 38 - 9.5 at Houston 23
9/15/2016 Houston 40 - 7.5 at Cincinnati 16
11/ 7/2015 Cincinnati 30 + 9.0 at Houston 33
12/ 6/2014 Houston 31 + 7.0 at Cincinnati 38
11/23/2013 Cincinnati 24 + 2.5 at Houston 17
11/16/2002 Houston 14 +16.0 at Cincinnati 47
10/20/2001 Cincinnati 29 -11.0 at Houston 28
10/ 7/2000 Houston 31 + 4.5 at Cincinnati 48
10/ 9/1999 Cincinnati 20 + 6.5 at Houston 23
11/14/1998 Houston 43 -10.0 at Cincinnati 44
10/18/1997 Cincinnati 38 - 7.0 at Houston 41
10/19/1996 Houston 20 + 1.0 at Cincinnati 31
11/13/1993 Cincinnati 41 - 1.0 at Houston 17
average outcome:
Houston 26.5 Cincinnati 34.4
margin = 7.93
time-weighted average outcome:
Houston 23.7 Cincinnati 32.6
margin = 8.90
average result when the home team is Cincinnati
Houston 27.0 Cincinnati 37.4
margin = 10.43
average result when the home team is Houston
Cincinnati 31.4 Houston 26.0
margin = -5.43
50.00 % of games went Over
50.00 % went Over at Cincinnati
(since 2001 )
average total points per game = 60.93
time-weighted average total = 56.37
the home team covered 53.85 % of the time
the road team covered 46.15 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.65
the favorite covered 53.85 % of the time
the underdog covered 46.15 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.81
the favorite won SU 78.57 % of the time
Houston covered 23.08 % of the time
Cincinnati covered 76.92 % of the time
Cincinnati covered 83.33 % of the time at home
Cincinnati covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites
Here’s how our model sees the AAC Championship game.
Houston 55.5 17 Cincinnati -10.0 35 using full season data Houston 55.5 14 Cincinnati -10.0 32 data from last 4 games Houston 55.5 21 Cincinnati -10.0 39 data from last 7 games
Our Pick
Make no mistake, the Bearcats want to leave nothing to chance in 2021. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulders on Saturday when they take on Houston for the Title.
A year ago, Cincinnati finished the season undefeated at 9-0 and beat Tulsa in the AAC Title game. They were then snubbed for a shot at the playoffs and went on to go toe to toe with Georgia in one of the most entertaining Bowl games of 2020.
While they likely would not have been considered regardless of the score in their win over Tulsa in last years Title game, they didn’t do themselves any favors by squeaking by 27-24. A 27-24 type of an outcome on Saturday will likely get them snubbed again.
We agree with the models predictions above. Expect the Bearcats to not only win this game but to do so with an exclamation point leaving no doubt about their legitimacy.
There are a few 10’s on the board with juice and the number is not likely to come back down off the current -10.5 at most shops. In fact, it’s likely to rise.