Oregon vs. Utah – Pac 12 Championship Pick – 12/3/21

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oregon at utah pac 12 championship pick
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Oregon and Utah will play for the PAC 12 Championship on Friday night December 3rd. These two teams played just a couple of weeks ago with Utah coming out on top 38-7 as -3 point home favorites.

This time around, the Utes are once again a short priced favorite, -2.5 or -3 depending on the sportsbook, with a total of 58. Only this time, the game will take place at a neutral site, Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

Oregon – Utah Head to Head

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
11/20/2021  Oregon                    7  + 3.0  at Utah                     38
12/ 6/2019  Utah                     15  - 6.5  vs Oregon                   37
11/10/2018  Oregon                   25  + 4.0  at Utah                     32
10/28/2017  Utah                     20  - 3.0  at Oregon                   41
11/19/2016  Oregon                   30  +14.0  at Utah                     28
 9/26/2015  Utah                     62  +10.5  at Oregon                   20
11/ 8/2014  Oregon                   51  - 9.0  at Utah                     27
11/16/2013  Utah                     21  +28.0  at Oregon                   44
 9/19/2009  Utah                     24  + 5.0  at Oregon                   31
10/ 3/2003  Oregon                   13  - 1.5  at Utah                     17
 9/ 8/2001  Utah                     10  +18.5  at Oregon                   24
10/18/1997  Utah                     13  + 7.5  at Oregon                   31
 9/ 2/1995  Oregon                   27  - 7.0  at Utah                     20
 9/17/1994  Utah                     34  + 3.0  at Oregon                   16
 9/21/1991  Oregon                   17  -12.5  at Utah                     24
  
   average outcome:
     Oregon                  27.6  Utah                    25.7
     margin =  -1.93
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Oregon                  27.9  Utah                    30.0
     margin =   2.09
  
   average result when the home team is Utah                   
     Oregon                  24.3  Utah                    26.6
     margin =   2.29
  
   average result when the home team is Oregon                 
     Utah                    26.3  Oregon                  29.6
     margin =   3.29
  
    63.64 % of games went Over
    40.00 % went Over at Utah                   
    (since        2001 )
  
   average total points per game =  53.27
   time-weighted average total   =  57.84
  
   the home team covered  53.85 % of the time
   the road team covered  46.15 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.54
  
   the favorite  covered  35.71 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  64.29 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -8.43
  
   the favorite won SU    53.33 % of the time
  
   Oregon                  covered  42.86 % of the time
   Utah                    covered  57.14 % of the time
  
   Utah                    covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Utah                    covered  66.67 % of the time as home favorites

Here is the way our model sees the PAC 12 Championship game.

Oregon                    59.5          25   NEUTRAL 
Utah                      -2.5          29 using full season data
  
Oregon                    59.5          20   NEUTRAL 
Utah                      -2.5          30 data from last 4 games
  
Oregon                    59.5          24   NEUTRAL 
Utah                      -2.5          34 data from last 7 games

Our Pick

Statistically, Utah is the better team. Not by much, but they’ve done everything a little better than Oregon here in 2021. Obviously, the model picks up on those statistical edges and forecasts a Utah win and cover in all three predictions above, using different time frame parameters.

But one thing no model can account for is emotion. It’s rare for a college football team to get a shot at revenge a mere 13 days later, but that’s exactly what the Ducks have here. That embarrassing and season ruining 38-7 loss is still fresh.

As the first score prediction above suggests, there’s not much separating these teams. The Ducks are obviously a talented team capable of playing with just about any team in the nation.

Expect a much closer game this time around. There a couple of +3’s on the board with juice, otherwise it’s all +2.5’s, but this is certainly a game the Ducks can win. We’ll call for the upset.

Oregon +3 -118 (betonline)