Oregon and Utah will play for the PAC 12 Championship on Friday night December 3rd. These two teams played just a couple of weeks ago with Utah coming out on top 38-7 as -3 point home favorites.
This time around, the Utes are once again a short priced favorite, -2.5 or -3 depending on the sportsbook, with a total of 58. Only this time, the game will take place at a neutral site, Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Oregon – Utah Head to Head
head-to-head history (lined games):
11/20/2021 Oregon 7 + 3.0 at Utah 38
12/ 6/2019 Utah 15 - 6.5 vs Oregon 37
11/10/2018 Oregon 25 + 4.0 at Utah 32
10/28/2017 Utah 20 - 3.0 at Oregon 41
11/19/2016 Oregon 30 +14.0 at Utah 28
9/26/2015 Utah 62 +10.5 at Oregon 20
11/ 8/2014 Oregon 51 - 9.0 at Utah 27
11/16/2013 Utah 21 +28.0 at Oregon 44
9/19/2009 Utah 24 + 5.0 at Oregon 31
10/ 3/2003 Oregon 13 - 1.5 at Utah 17
9/ 8/2001 Utah 10 +18.5 at Oregon 24
10/18/1997 Utah 13 + 7.5 at Oregon 31
9/ 2/1995 Oregon 27 - 7.0 at Utah 20
9/17/1994 Utah 34 + 3.0 at Oregon 16
9/21/1991 Oregon 17 -12.5 at Utah 24
average outcome:
Oregon 27.6 Utah 25.7
margin = -1.93
time-weighted average outcome:
Oregon 27.9 Utah 30.0
margin = 2.09
average result when the home team is Utah
Oregon 24.3 Utah 26.6
margin = 2.29
average result when the home team is Oregon
Utah 26.3 Oregon 29.6
margin = 3.29
63.64 % of games went Over
40.00 % went Over at Utah
(since 2001 )
average total points per game = 53.27
time-weighted average total = 57.84
the home team covered 53.85 % of the time
the road team covered 46.15 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.54
the favorite covered 35.71 % of the time
the underdog covered 64.29 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -8.43
the favorite won SU 53.33 % of the time
Oregon covered 42.86 % of the time
Utah covered 57.14 % of the time
Utah covered 66.67 % of the time at home
Utah covered 66.67 % of the time as home favorites
Here is the way our model sees the PAC 12 Championship game.
Oregon 59.5 25 NEUTRAL Utah -2.5 29 using full season data Oregon 59.5 20 NEUTRAL Utah -2.5 30 data from last 4 games Oregon 59.5 24 NEUTRAL Utah -2.5 34 data from last 7 games
Our Pick
Statistically, Utah is the better team. Not by much, but they’ve done everything a little better than Oregon here in 2021. Obviously, the model picks up on those statistical edges and forecasts a Utah win and cover in all three predictions above, using different time frame parameters.
But one thing no model can account for is emotion. It’s rare for a college football team to get a shot at revenge a mere 13 days later, but that’s exactly what the Ducks have here. That embarrassing and season ruining 38-7 loss is still fresh.
As the first score prediction above suggests, there’s not much separating these teams. The Ducks are obviously a talented team capable of playing with just about any team in the nation.
Expect a much closer game this time around. There a couple of +3’s on the board with juice, otherwise it’s all +2.5’s, but this is certainly a game the Ducks can win. We’ll call for the upset.