Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh – ACC Championship CFB Pick – 12/4/21

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pitt vs. wake forest pick - acc cfb championship
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Wake Forest and Pitt will duke it out for the ACC Title at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday nigh. Kickoff is set for 8 pm EST with Pitt currently favored by -3 and growing. The total is a whopping 71.

Pitt – Wake Forest Head to Head (1 meeting)

11/17/2018  Pittsburgh               34  - 6.0  at Wake Forest              13
  
   average outcome:
     Wake Forest             13.0  Pittsburgh              34.0
     margin =  21.00
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Wake Forest             13.0  Pittsburgh              34.0
     margin =  21.00
  
   average result when the home team is Wake Forest            
     Pittsburgh              34.0  Wake Forest             13.0
     margin = -21.00
  
     0.00 % of games went Over
  
   average total points per game =  47.00
   time-weighted average total   =  47.00
  
   the home team covered   0.00 % of the time
   the road team covered 100.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =-15.00
  
   the favorite  covered 100.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered   0.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = 15.00
  
   the favorite won SU   100.00 % of the time
  
   Wake Forest             covered   0.00 % of the time
   Pittsburgh              covered 100.00 % of the time

Last 8 games for each team

   11/27  Pittsburgh               31  at  Syracuse                 14    UN  57.0
   11/20  Virginia                 38  at  Pittsburgh               48    OV  66.0
   11/11  North Carolina           23  at  Pittsburgh               30    UN  73.5
   11/ 6  Pittsburgh               54  at  Duke                     29    OV  64.0
   10/30  Miami                    38  at  Pittsburgh               34    OV  60.5
   10/23  Clemson                  17  at  Pittsburgh               27    UN  47.5
   10/16  Pittsburgh               28  at  Virginia Tech             7    UN  55.5
   10/ 2  Pittsburgh               52  at  Georgia Tech             21    OV  58.5
  
   ***
  
   11/27  Wake Forest              41  at  Boston College           10    UN  64.0
   11/20  Wake Forest              27  at  Clemson                  48    OV  54.5
   11/13  North Carolina State     42  at  Wake Forest              45    OV  64.0
   11/ 6  Wake Forest              55  at  North Carolina           58    OV  77.5
   10/30  Duke                      7  at  Wake Forest              45    UN  71.0
   10/23  Wake Forest              70  at  Army                     56    OV  52.0
   10/ 9  Wake Forest              40  at  Syracuse                 37    OV  58.0
   10/ 2  Louisville               34  at  Wake Forest              37    OV  62.5

 

Score Predictions from our model

Wake Forest               72.0          37   NEUTRAL 
Pittsburgh                -3.0          41 full season data
  
Wake Forest               72.0          37   NEUTRAL 
Pittsburgh                -3.0          39 data from last 4 games
  
Wake Forest               72.0          40   NEUTRAL 
Pittsburgh                -3.0          47 data from last 7 games

Our Pick

No surprise from our model. As you can see, the model predicts a close game with a lot of points being scored, regardless of what time frame parameters used. It’s also predicts a Pitt cover, albeit barely, in two of the 3 predictions.

At one point, there were -2.5’s on the board. Now most of the 3’s are disappearing as the Pitt money continues to flow in the day before the game.

We’d be lying if we said there was a huge edge to be had in this game either way. Frankly, in games like this, we generally lean heavily towards the dog. You’re getting a solid football team plus points in a game for all the marbles which they could very well win outright. Not a bad deal.

But we think Pitt may be the right side here. There’s no big edge, but there’s lots of little ones that add up.

One in particular is the yards per play stat. Pitt’s yards per play differential is +1.1. Wake Forest’s differential is +0.2. Now, that may not seem like much, but in fact, it’s significant. Pitt’s +1.1 is good for 22nd in the country. Wake Forests number puts them middle of the pack.

We also think the Clemson game for both teams is telling. Clemson wasn’t exactly an offensive power house this year but they managed to hang 48 on Wake Forest while Pitt held them to 17.

PITT -3