Wake Forest and Pitt will duke it out for the ACC Title at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday nigh. Kickoff is set for 8 pm EST with Pitt currently favored by -3 and growing. The total is a whopping 71.
Pitt – Wake Forest Head to Head (1 meeting)
11/17/2018 Pittsburgh 34 - 6.0 at Wake Forest 13
average outcome:
Wake Forest 13.0 Pittsburgh 34.0
margin = 21.00
time-weighted average outcome:
Wake Forest 13.0 Pittsburgh 34.0
margin = 21.00
average result when the home team is Wake Forest
Pittsburgh 34.0 Wake Forest 13.0
margin = -21.00
0.00 % of games went Over
average total points per game = 47.00
time-weighted average total = 47.00
the home team covered 0.00 % of the time
the road team covered 100.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential =-15.00
the favorite covered 100.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 0.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 15.00
the favorite won SU 100.00 % of the time
Wake Forest covered 0.00 % of the time
Pittsburgh covered 100.00 % of the time
Last 8 games for each team
11/27 Pittsburgh 31 at Syracuse 14 UN 57.0 11/20 Virginia 38 at Pittsburgh 48 OV 66.0 11/11 North Carolina 23 at Pittsburgh 30 UN 73.5 11/ 6 Pittsburgh 54 at Duke 29 OV 64.0 10/30 Miami 38 at Pittsburgh 34 OV 60.5 10/23 Clemson 17 at Pittsburgh 27 UN 47.5 10/16 Pittsburgh 28 at Virginia Tech 7 UN 55.5 10/ 2 Pittsburgh 52 at Georgia Tech 21 OV 58.5 *** 11/27 Wake Forest 41 at Boston College 10 UN 64.0 11/20 Wake Forest 27 at Clemson 48 OV 54.5 11/13 North Carolina State 42 at Wake Forest 45 OV 64.0 11/ 6 Wake Forest 55 at North Carolina 58 OV 77.5 10/30 Duke 7 at Wake Forest 45 UN 71.0 10/23 Wake Forest 70 at Army 56 OV 52.0 10/ 9 Wake Forest 40 at Syracuse 37 OV 58.0 10/ 2 Louisville 34 at Wake Forest 37 OV 62.5
Score Predictions from our model
Wake Forest 72.0 37 NEUTRAL Pittsburgh -3.0 41 full season data Wake Forest 72.0 37 NEUTRAL Pittsburgh -3.0 39 data from last 4 games Wake Forest 72.0 40 NEUTRAL Pittsburgh -3.0 47 data from last 7 games
Our Pick
No surprise from our model. As you can see, the model predicts a close game with a lot of points being scored, regardless of what time frame parameters used. It’s also predicts a Pitt cover, albeit barely, in two of the 3 predictions.
At one point, there were -2.5’s on the board. Now most of the 3’s are disappearing as the Pitt money continues to flow in the day before the game.
We’d be lying if we said there was a huge edge to be had in this game either way. Frankly, in games like this, we generally lean heavily towards the dog. You’re getting a solid football team plus points in a game for all the marbles which they could very well win outright. Not a bad deal.
But we think Pitt may be the right side here. There’s no big edge, but there’s lots of little ones that add up.
One in particular is the yards per play stat. Pitt’s yards per play differential is +1.1. Wake Forest’s differential is +0.2. Now, that may not seem like much, but in fact, it’s significant. Pitt’s +1.1 is good for 22nd in the country. Wake Forests number puts them middle of the pack.
We also think the Clemson game for both teams is telling. Clemson wasn’t exactly an offensive power house this year but they managed to hang 48 on Wake Forest while Pitt held them to 17.