If you like defensive football this game might be a good one to tune in to as Wisconsin hosts Iowa on Saturday at 12 noon EST. The Badgers are favored by -3.5 with a current posted total of 36.5.
After a shaky start to their season Wisconsin has now won 3 in a row. They sit a 4-3 overall and are very much alive in the Big 10 West division at 2-2. No one should be surprised as the Badgers were winning games “statistically” early in the season, just not on the scoreboard.
Iowa, once ranked #2 in the nation, comes in at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play. That 3-1 mark is good for 2nd in the Big 10 West making this a huge game with Wisconsin right on their tails in 3rd.
Head to Head History Iowa – Wisconsin
12/12/2020 Wisconsin 7 - 1.0 at Iowa 28
11/ 9/2019 Iowa 22 + 8.5 at Wisconsin 24
9/22/2018 Wisconsin 28 - 3.0 at Iowa 17
11/11/2017 Iowa 14 +12.0 at Wisconsin 38
10/22/2016 Wisconsin 17 - 4.0 at Iowa 9
10/ 3/2015 Iowa 10 + 5.0 at Wisconsin 6
11/22/2014 Wisconsin 26 -10.0 at Iowa 24
11/ 2/2013 Wisconsin 28 - 9.5 at Iowa 9
10/23/2010 Wisconsin 31 + 6.5 at Iowa 30
10/17/2009 Iowa 20 + 2.5 at Wisconsin 10
10/18/2008 Wisconsin 16 + 4.0 at Iowa 38
9/22/2007 Iowa 13 + 9.5 at Wisconsin 17
11/11/2006 Wisconsin 24 + 1.0 at Iowa 21
11/12/2005 Iowa 20 + 3.0 at Wisconsin 10
11/20/2004 Wisconsin 7 + 3.0 at Iowa 30
11/22/2003 Iowa 27 + 2.0 at Wisconsin 21
11/ 2/2002 Wisconsin 3 + 9.5 at Iowa 20
11/ 3/2001 Iowa 28 + 1.0 at Wisconsin 34
10/28/2000 Wisconsin 13 -16.0 at Iowa 7
11/13/1999 Iowa 3 +31.5 at Wisconsin 41
10/24/1998 Wisconsin 31 - 6.5 at Iowa 0
11/ 8/1997 Iowa 10 - 8.5 at Wisconsin 13
11/16/1996 Wisconsin 0 + 2.5 at Iowa 31
11/18/1995 Iowa 33 + 7.0 at Wisconsin 20
10/10/1992 Wisconsin 22 + 9.5 at Iowa 23
10/12/1991 Iowa 10 -19.0 at Wisconsin 6
10/13/1990 Wisconsin 10 +19.0 at Iowa 30
average outcome:
Iowa 19.5 Wisconsin 18.6
margin = -0.89
time-weighted average outcome:
Iowa 18.4 Wisconsin 20.8
margin = 2.39
average result when the home team is Wisconsin
Iowa 17.5 Wisconsin 20.0
margin = 2.50
average result when the home team is Iowa
Wisconsin 17.5 Iowa 21.1
margin = 3.60
40.91 % of games went Over
50.00 % went Over at Wisconsin
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 38.15
time-weighted average total = 39.22
the home team covered 48.15 % of the time
the road team covered 51.85 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.91
the favorite covered 44.44 % of the time
the underdog covered 55.56 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.61
the favorite won SU 66.67 % of the time
Iowa covered 55.56 % of the time
Wisconsin covered 44.44 % of the time
Wisconsin covered 41.67 % of the time at home
Wisconsin covered 30.00 % of the time as home favorites
This is an interesting game in that Wisconsin has been underrated and not playing up to their potential while Iowa has been overrated and not quite as good as they have seemed. Certainly no one really believed the Hawkeyes were the 2nd best college football team in the nation. But they are a good football team.
Our Pick
It should come as no surprise that our model sees this as a close, low scoring game that goes way under the current total of 36.5. But we’d be cautious playing this one under.
These low scoring games also tend to present some value with the underdog getting anything more than a field goal but that’s not where we’re going with this one.
We think this spot sets up nicely for the Badgers. After a slow start, they have a chance to really make some noise this year in the Big 10 and if that’s to happen, it has to start this week at home with a win over Iowa.
If that’s not motivation enough, this is also a revenge spot for Wisconsin for last last years 28-7 loss at Iowa. Look for Wisconsin to return the favor this year and to do so with an exclamation point.