Kentucky at South Carolina – SEC College Football Pick – 9/25/21

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kentucky at south carolina ncaaf pick
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Kentucky at South Carolina

South Carolina will host Kentucky on Saturday the 25th of September. Kentucky is favored on the road by -5.5 with a total of 49 at Betonline. The game can be seen on ESPN2 with kickoff set for 7 PM EST.

Kentucky comes into the game undefeated at 3-0 with their most notable win a 35-28 decision over Missouri.

The Gamecocks are 2-1, beating Eastern Illinois and East Carolina but getting their doors blown off when they stepped up in class to face Georgia, 40-13.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/ 5/2020  South Carolina           18  +11.5  at Kentucky                 41
 9/28/2019  Kentucky                  7  + 3.0  at South Carolina           24
 9/29/2018  South Carolina           10  - 2.5  at Kentucky                 24
 9/16/2017  Kentucky                 23  + 6.0  at South Carolina           13
 9/24/2016  South Carolina           10  + 2.5  at Kentucky                 17
 9/12/2015  Kentucky                 26  + 7.0  at South Carolina           22
10/ 4/2014  South Carolina           38  - 4.0  at Kentucky                 45
10/ 5/2013  Kentucky                 28  +21.5  at South Carolina           35
 9/29/2012  South Carolina           38  -20.5  at Kentucky                 17
10/ 8/2011  Kentucky                  3  +21.0  at South Carolina           54
10/16/2010  South Carolina           28  - 5.0  at Kentucky                 31
10/10/2009  Kentucky                 26  + 9.5  at South Carolina           28
10/11/2008  South Carolina           24  - 3.0  at Kentucky                 17
10/ 4/2007  Kentucky                 23  + 4.0  at South Carolina           38
10/ 7/2006  South Carolina           24  - 3.5  at Kentucky                 17
10/ 8/2005  Kentucky                 16  +12.5  at South Carolina           44
10/16/2004  South Carolina           12  - 9.5  at Kentucky                  7
10/ 9/2003  Kentucky                 21  + 6.5  at South Carolina           27
10/12/2002  South Carolina           16  + 5.5  at Kentucky                 12
10/ 6/2001  Kentucky                  6  +22.5  at South Carolina           42
10/ 7/2000  South Carolina           20  - 2.0  at Kentucky                 17
10/ 9/1999  Kentucky                 30  - 8.0  at South Carolina           10
10/10/1998  South Carolina           28  +14.0  at Kentucky                 33
10/11/1997  Kentucky                 24  + 1.5  at South Carolina           38
10/12/1996  South Carolina           25  - 7.0  at Kentucky                 14
 9/23/1995  Kentucky                 35  +13.5  at South Carolina           30
 9/24/1994  South Carolina           23  - 7.0  at Kentucky                  9
 9/23/1993  Kentucky                 21  +11.0  at South Carolina           17
 9/26/1992  South Carolina            9  +10.5  at Kentucky                 13
  
   average outcome:
     Kentucky                20.8  South Carolina          25.7
     margin =   4.90
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Kentucky                24.8  South Carolina          19.5
     margin =  -5.31
  
   average result when the home team is South Carolina         
     Kentucky                20.6  South Carolina          30.1
     margin =   9.50
  
   average result when the home team is Kentucky               
     South Carolina          21.5  Kentucky                20.9
     margin =  -0.60
  
    57.14 % of games went Over
    70.00 % went Over at South Carolina         
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  46.48
   time-weighted average total   =  44.28
  
   the home team covered  41.38 % of the time
   the road team covered  58.62 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.43
  
   the favorite  covered  51.72 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  48.28 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.12
  
   the favorite won SU    72.41 % of the time
  
   Kentucky                covered  48.28 % of the time
   South Carolina          covered  51.72 % of the time
  
   South Carolina          covered  42.86 % of the time at home
   South Carolina          covered   0.00 % of the time as home underdogs

 

Coaching Edge to Kentucky

We think this game may come down to a coaching edge. Mark Stoops has been the head coach at Kentucky since 2013. After 3 seasons below .500 he rattled off 4 consecutive winning seasons including 10-3 in 2018. In the 2020 covid year he was 5-6.

Shane Beamer took over at South Carolina this season. While he’s the son of a coaching legend, this is his first head coaching gig. He inherited a team which saw players opt out when the coaching change was made and the team has issues at QB.

It really comes down to Stoops knowing exactly what he has to work with. It’s his team. His players and he’s done a fine job in finding ways to win since he’s been there.

For Beamer, it’s not his team. Not his players. He has to make the best with what was left to him. It will take a few years for him to put his stamp on this team through recruiting and getting his systems in place.

The coaching edge should be enough to get the win and the cover here for Kentucky.

Kentucky -5