Miami at North Carolina ACC College Football Pick – 10/16/21

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miami at north carolina cfb pick ats
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North Carolina will host Miami Florida in ACC action this week. The Tar Heels opened up as -6 point favorites and the early money has pushed that number to -7 as of Monday afternoon. The total is 62.5.

Miami is 2-3 overall and they have only played one conference game to date, losing to Virginia, which makes them 0-1 in the conference and still very much in the race. When this game kicks off on Saturday it will be Miami’s first game in 16 days.

North Carolina has already played 5 conference games. They sit at 2-3 in the conference and 3-3 overall. It would appear as though the Heels have dug themselves a hole in terms of the conference race. However, with just 3 losses to date, a high profile Bowl game could still be on the table.

Head to Head History

12/12/2020  North Carolina           62  + 4.0  at Miami                    26
 9/ 7/2019  Miami                    25  - 5.0  at North Carolina           28
 9/27/2018  North Carolina           10  +18.5  at Miami                    47
10/28/2017  Miami                    24  -21.0  at North Carolina           19
10/15/2016  North Carolina           20  + 7.0  at Miami                    13
11/14/2015  Miami                    21  +12.5  at North Carolina           59
11/ 1/2014  North Carolina           20  +15.0  at Miami                    47
10/17/2013  Miami                    27  - 9.5  at North Carolina           23
10/13/2012  North Carolina           18  - 7.5  at Miami                    14
10/15/2011  Miami                    30  + 2.5  at North Carolina           24
10/23/2010  North Carolina           10  + 6.5  at Miami                    33
11/14/2009  Miami                    24  - 3.0  at North Carolina           33
 9/27/2008  North Carolina           28  + 7.5  at Miami                    24
10/ 6/2007  Miami                    27  - 7.5  at North Carolina           33
10/ 7/2006  North Carolina            7  +17.5  at Miami                    27
10/29/2005  North Carolina           16  +19.5  at Miami                    34
10/30/2004  Miami                    28  -21.0  at North Carolina           31

At this point in the season North Carolina would appear to be the better team. Certainly they have the potential to be explosive offensively, however it’s been kind of a Jekyll and Hyde year as to when that offense shows up.

Here’s the way our model sees this one.

Miami                     61.5          30           
North Carolina            -6.5          33
  
Miami                     61.5          34           
North Carolina            -6.5          27

The first score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from just the last 4 games.

Either way, as you can see, the model likes Miami getting a full touchdown and we have to agree. This is a big spot in conference play for Miami. Furthermore they were scorched for 62 points in last years loss to the Tar Heels (62-26).

It’s not uncommon for a defense to bounce back the following year after being humiliated by a team the way Miami was last season. Both teams are mostly intact from a year ago and that score no doubt has been locker room material for the past 16 days, since Miami last played.

Miami +7