North Carolina will host Miami Florida in ACC action this week. The Tar Heels opened up as -6 point favorites and the early money has pushed that number to -7 as of Monday afternoon. The total is 62.5.
Miami is 2-3 overall and they have only played one conference game to date, losing to Virginia, which makes them 0-1 in the conference and still very much in the race. When this game kicks off on Saturday it will be Miami’s first game in 16 days.
North Carolina has already played 5 conference games. They sit at 2-3 in the conference and 3-3 overall. It would appear as though the Heels have dug themselves a hole in terms of the conference race. However, with just 3 losses to date, a high profile Bowl game could still be on the table.
Head to Head History
12/12/2020 North Carolina 62 + 4.0 at Miami 26 9/ 7/2019 Miami 25 - 5.0 at North Carolina 28 9/27/2018 North Carolina 10 +18.5 at Miami 47 10/28/2017 Miami 24 -21.0 at North Carolina 19 10/15/2016 North Carolina 20 + 7.0 at Miami 13 11/14/2015 Miami 21 +12.5 at North Carolina 59 11/ 1/2014 North Carolina 20 +15.0 at Miami 47 10/17/2013 Miami 27 - 9.5 at North Carolina 23 10/13/2012 North Carolina 18 - 7.5 at Miami 14 10/15/2011 Miami 30 + 2.5 at North Carolina 24 10/23/2010 North Carolina 10 + 6.5 at Miami 33 11/14/2009 Miami 24 - 3.0 at North Carolina 33 9/27/2008 North Carolina 28 + 7.5 at Miami 24 10/ 6/2007 Miami 27 - 7.5 at North Carolina 33 10/ 7/2006 North Carolina 7 +17.5 at Miami 27 10/29/2005 North Carolina 16 +19.5 at Miami 34 10/30/2004 Miami 28 -21.0 at North Carolina 31
At this point in the season North Carolina would appear to be the better team. Certainly they have the potential to be explosive offensively, however it’s been kind of a Jekyll and Hyde year as to when that offense shows up.
Here’s the way our model sees this one.
Miami 61.5 30 North Carolina -6.5 33 Miami 61.5 34 North Carolina -6.5 27
The first score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from just the last 4 games.
Either way, as you can see, the model likes Miami getting a full touchdown and we have to agree. This is a big spot in conference play for Miami. Furthermore they were scorched for 62 points in last years loss to the Tar Heels (62-26).
It’s not uncommon for a defense to bounce back the following year after being humiliated by a team the way Miami was last season. Both teams are mostly intact from a year ago and that score no doubt has been locker room material for the past 16 days, since Miami last played.