Pitt Panthers at Virginia Tech – Free College Football Pick – 10/16/21

18
pitt at virginia tech free cfb pick against the spread
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Virginia Tech will host Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon in Blacksburg. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST with the Pitt Panthers favored on the road by 5. The current posted total is 58.

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Both teams come into this game at 1-0 in conference play and tied for 1st place in the ACC Coastal division, adding to the importance of the matchup.

Virginia Tech is 3-2 overall. Their two losses came by 6 at West Virginia and then last weeks heartbreaker by 3 at home to Notre Dame, a game in which they held an 8 point lead with 3:55 to go in the game.

Pitt comes into this game flying high with an offense that’s clicking on all cylinders. This Pitt team has scored at least 41 points in every game so far in 2021. The Panthers are 4-1 overall with their lone loss coming at the hands of Western Michigan.

Head to Head History

11/21/2020  Virginia Tech            14  - 3.5  at Pittsburgh               47
11/23/2019  Pittsburgh                0  + 3.5  at Virginia Tech            28
11/10/2018  Virginia Tech            22  + 3.0  at Pittsburgh               52
11/18/2017  Pittsburgh               14  +14.0  at Virginia Tech            20
10/27/2016  Virginia Tech            39  - 3.5  at Pittsburgh               36
10/ 3/2015  Pittsburgh               17  + 3.5  at Virginia Tech            13
10/16/2014  Virginia Tech            16  + 1.0  at Pittsburgh               21
10/12/2013  Pittsburgh                9  + 8.5  at Virginia Tech            19
 9/15/2012  Virginia Tech            17  -10.5  at Pittsburgh               35
11/ 8/2003  Virginia Tech            28  - 3.5  at Pittsburgh               31
11/ 2/2002  Pittsburgh               28  +12.5  at Virginia Tech            21
11/ 3/2001  Virginia Tech             7  -17.5  at Pittsburgh               38
10/28/2000  Pittsburgh               34  +16.0  at Virginia Tech            37
10/30/1999  Virginia Tech            30  -22.0  at Pittsburgh               17
 9/26/1998  Pittsburgh                7  +14.0  at Virginia Tech            27
11/22/1997  Virginia Tech            23  -10.5  at Pittsburgh               30
10/26/1996  Pittsburgh               17  +31.0  at Virginia Tech            34
 9/30/1995  Virginia Tech            26  - 2.5  at Pittsburgh               16
10/22/1994  Pittsburgh                7  +18.5  at Virginia Tech            45
 9/11/1993  Virginia Tech            63  + 0.0  at Pittsburgh               21
  
   average outcome:
     Pittsburgh              23.9  Virginia Tech           26.4
     margin =   2.60
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Pittsburgh              27.3  Virginia Tech           21.9
     margin =  -5.46
  
   average result when the home team is Virginia Tech          
     Pittsburgh              14.8  Virginia Tech           27.1
     margin =  12.33
  
   average result when the home team is Pittsburgh             
     Virginia Tech           25.9  Pittsburgh              31.3
     margin =   5.36
  
    53.85 % of games went Over
    33.33 % went Over at Virginia Tech          
    (since        2000 )
  
   average total points per game =  50.30
   time-weighted average total   =  49.19
  
   the home team covered  65.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  35.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  5.90
  
   the favorite  covered  36.84 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  63.16 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -8.47
  
   the favorite won SU    63.16 % of the time
  
   Pittsburgh              covered  70.00 % of the time
   Virginia Tech           covered  30.00 % of the time
  
   Virginia Tech           covered  44.44 % of the time at home

Is the Virginia Tech offense up for the challenge this week facing this high powered Pitt offense? It’s notable that Pitt scored 47 in 2020 and 52 in 2018 with both of those games being at Pitt. Yet in 2019, the Panthers were shut out 28-0 in Blacksburg. So which Tech defense shows up?

Bettors Beware

Our number on this game is Pitt by 3. That would appear to give a slight lean towards the Hokies at home in this big spot. However, there are a few things bettors need to be aware of before pulling the trigger.

The Hokies will be without top linebacker Dax Hollifield for the 1st half Saturday. He was ejected for targeting last week against the Irish. Also, QB Braxton Burmeister left the game last week due to a right shoulder injury. He was forced back into the game when backup Connor Blumrick was also knocked out of the game with an injury.

Finally, Pitt was off last week. They come into this key game rested and having had two weeks to prepare for the Hokies who are coming of such a huge emotionally draining loss. The situation favors Pitt here.

Here’s a quote from a local Tech writer. “The Hokies under Fuente have struggled to bounce back after an emotionally-draining performance such as Saturday’s loss.”

There are so many opportunities on the betting board each week that sometimes you simply have to pass a game when things don’t line up. There’s enough uncertainty here, particularly from an emotional standpoint, for us to pass.

Lean Towards Virginia Tech +5