Minnesota at Iowa Big 10 CFB Pick ATS – 11/13/21

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minnesota at iowa cfb pick
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Iowa will host Minnesota on Saturday in a crucial Big 10 West game. Iowa opened as -6.5 point favorites but the majority of the tickets being written on this game have been on the Gophers. The line now sits at 5.5 at most shops. The total is 37.

Both of these teams sit at 4-2 in the Big 10 West Division along with Wisconsin and Purdue in a 4 way tie. After this game, both teams have two games left. Needless to say, this game is huge.

Minnesota – Iowa Head to Head

11/13/2020  Iowa                     35  - 3.5  at Minnesota                 7
11/16/2019  Minnesota                19  + 3.0  at Iowa                     23
10/ 6/2018  Iowa                     48  - 7.0  at Minnesota                31
10/28/2017  Minnesota                10  + 7.0  at Iowa                     17
10/ 8/2016  Iowa                     14  + 2.5  at Minnesota                 7
11/14/2015  Minnesota                35  + 9.5  at Iowa                     40
11/ 8/2014  Iowa                     14  + 0.0  at Minnesota                51
 9/28/2013  Iowa                     23  - 2.0  at Minnesota                 7
 9/29/2012  Minnesota                13  + 6.5  at Iowa                     31
10/29/2011  Iowa                     21  -16.0  at Minnesota                22
11/27/2010  Iowa                     24  -15.5  at Minnesota                27
11/21/2009  Minnesota                 0  +10.0  at Iowa                     12
11/22/2008  Iowa                     55  - 6.0  at Minnesota                 0
11/10/2007  Minnesota                16  +13.5  at Iowa                     21
11/18/2006  Iowa                     24  + 3.0  at Minnesota                34
11/19/2005  Minnesota                28  + 4.0  at Iowa                     52
11/13/2004  Iowa                     29  + 4.0  at Minnesota                27
11/15/2003  Minnesota                22  + 5.5  at Iowa                     40
11/16/2002  Iowa                     45  - 8.5  at Minnesota                21
11/17/2001  Minnesota                24  +11.5  at Iowa                     42
11/18/2000  Iowa                     24  +14.0  at Minnesota                27
11/20/1999  Minnesota                25  -20.0  at Iowa                     21
11/21/1998  Iowa                      7  + 7.0  at Minnesota                49
11/22/1997  Minnesota                 0  +20.0  at Iowa                     31
11/23/1996  Iowa                     43  -11.0  at Minnesota                24
11/25/1995  Minnesota                 3  +10.0  at Iowa                     45
11/19/1994  Iowa                     49  + 1.0  at Minnesota                42
11/20/1993  Minnesota                 3  + 6.5  at Iowa                     21
11/21/1992  Iowa                     13  -10.0  at Minnesota                28
11/23/1991  Minnesota                 8  +26.0  at Iowa                     23
11/24/1990  Iowa                     24  -13.0  at Minnesota                31
  
   average outcome:
     Minnesota               20.7  Iowa                    29.4
     margin =   8.71
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Minnesota               18.9  Iowa                    28.7
     margin =   9.74
  
   average result when the home team is Iowa                   
     Minnesota               14.7  Iowa                    29.9
     margin =  15.21
  
   average result when the home team is Minnesota              
     Iowa                    28.9  Minnesota               25.6
     margin =  -3.35
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
    44.44 % went Over at Iowa                   
    (since        1996 )
  
   average total points per game =  50.06
   time-weighted average total   =  47.58
  
   the home team covered  56.67 % of the time
   the road team covered  43.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.47
  
   the favorite  covered  58.62 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  41.38 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  5.28
  
   the favorite won SU    76.67 % of the time
  
   Minnesota               covered  33.33 % of the time
   Iowa                    covered  66.67 % of the time
  
   Iowa                    covered  76.92 % of the time at home
   Iowa                    covered  75.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here are 3 score predictions from our model. The 1st score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from the last 4 games and the 3rd score uses data from the last 7 games.

Minnesota                 37.0          12           
Iowa                      -5.5          19
  
Minnesota                 37.0          15           
Iowa                      -5.5           8
  
Minnesota                 37.0          11           
Iowa                      -5.5          14

With the game predicted to be such a low scoring affair we’d favor the underdog Gophers. Early bettors were able to grab +7 and +6.5. We’d lay Minnesota at +6 or better but not as the current number of +5.5.

Also some value with the under here.

UNDER 37.5