Iowa will host Minnesota on Saturday in a crucial Big 10 West game. Iowa opened as -6.5 point favorites but the majority of the tickets being written on this game have been on the Gophers. The line now sits at 5.5 at most shops. The total is 37.
Both of these teams sit at 4-2 in the Big 10 West Division along with Wisconsin and Purdue in a 4 way tie. After this game, both teams have two games left. Needless to say, this game is huge.
Minnesota – Iowa Head to Head
11/13/2020 Iowa 35 - 3.5 at Minnesota 7
11/16/2019 Minnesota 19 + 3.0 at Iowa 23
10/ 6/2018 Iowa 48 - 7.0 at Minnesota 31
10/28/2017 Minnesota 10 + 7.0 at Iowa 17
10/ 8/2016 Iowa 14 + 2.5 at Minnesota 7
11/14/2015 Minnesota 35 + 9.5 at Iowa 40
11/ 8/2014 Iowa 14 + 0.0 at Minnesota 51
9/28/2013 Iowa 23 - 2.0 at Minnesota 7
9/29/2012 Minnesota 13 + 6.5 at Iowa 31
10/29/2011 Iowa 21 -16.0 at Minnesota 22
11/27/2010 Iowa 24 -15.5 at Minnesota 27
11/21/2009 Minnesota 0 +10.0 at Iowa 12
11/22/2008 Iowa 55 - 6.0 at Minnesota 0
11/10/2007 Minnesota 16 +13.5 at Iowa 21
11/18/2006 Iowa 24 + 3.0 at Minnesota 34
11/19/2005 Minnesota 28 + 4.0 at Iowa 52
11/13/2004 Iowa 29 + 4.0 at Minnesota 27
11/15/2003 Minnesota 22 + 5.5 at Iowa 40
11/16/2002 Iowa 45 - 8.5 at Minnesota 21
11/17/2001 Minnesota 24 +11.5 at Iowa 42
11/18/2000 Iowa 24 +14.0 at Minnesota 27
11/20/1999 Minnesota 25 -20.0 at Iowa 21
11/21/1998 Iowa 7 + 7.0 at Minnesota 49
11/22/1997 Minnesota 0 +20.0 at Iowa 31
11/23/1996 Iowa 43 -11.0 at Minnesota 24
11/25/1995 Minnesota 3 +10.0 at Iowa 45
11/19/1994 Iowa 49 + 1.0 at Minnesota 42
11/20/1993 Minnesota 3 + 6.5 at Iowa 21
11/21/1992 Iowa 13 -10.0 at Minnesota 28
11/23/1991 Minnesota 8 +26.0 at Iowa 23
11/24/1990 Iowa 24 -13.0 at Minnesota 31
average outcome:
Minnesota 20.7 Iowa 29.4
margin = 8.71
time-weighted average outcome:
Minnesota 18.9 Iowa 28.7
margin = 9.74
average result when the home team is Iowa
Minnesota 14.7 Iowa 29.9
margin = 15.21
average result when the home team is Minnesota
Iowa 28.9 Minnesota 25.6
margin = -3.35
50.00 % of games went Over
44.44 % went Over at Iowa
(since 1996 )
average total points per game = 50.06
time-weighted average total = 47.58
the home team covered 56.67 % of the time
the road team covered 43.33 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.47
the favorite covered 58.62 % of the time
the underdog covered 41.38 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 5.28
the favorite won SU 76.67 % of the time
Minnesota covered 33.33 % of the time
Iowa covered 66.67 % of the time
Iowa covered 76.92 % of the time at home
Iowa covered 75.00 % of the time as home favorites
Here are 3 score predictions from our model. The 1st score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from the last 4 games and the 3rd score uses data from the last 7 games.
Minnesota 37.0 12 Iowa -5.5 19 Minnesota 37.0 15 Iowa -5.5 8 Minnesota 37.0 11 Iowa -5.5 14
With the game predicted to be such a low scoring affair we’d favor the underdog Gophers. Early bettors were able to grab +7 and +6.5. We’d lay Minnesota at +6 or better but not as the current number of +5.5.
Also some value with the under here.