NC State at Wake Forest ACC Football Pick – 11/13/21

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nc state at wake forest acc football pick
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Wake Forest will host NC State in a huge ACC Atlantic game on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST. Wake Forest opened as a -3 point favorite and has been bet down to -2, 1.5 in spots. The current posted total is 66.5.

Wake Forest is 8-1 overall and 5-0 in conference play. The Demon Deacons suffered their only loss of the season last week at the hands of North Carolina, 58-55.

NC State comes into this game at 7-2 overall and 4-1 in conference play. Their losses came to Miami by 1 and to Miss State earlier in the season.

NC State – Wake Forest Head to Head

11/ 2/2019  North Carolina State     10  + 8.0  at Wake Forest              44
11/ 8/2018  Wake Forest              27  +19.0  at North Carolina State     23
11/18/2017  North Carolina State     24  + 2.5  at Wake Forest              30
10/ 1/2016  Wake Forest              16  +14.0  at North Carolina State     33
10/24/2015  North Carolina State     35  - 9.0  at Wake Forest              17
11/15/2014  Wake Forest              13  +16.5  at North Carolina State     42
10/ 5/2013  North Carolina State     13  - 7.5  at Wake Forest              28
11/10/2012  Wake Forest               6  + 8.0  at North Carolina State     37
 9/10/2011  North Carolina State     27  - 1.5  at Wake Forest              34
11/13/2010  Wake Forest               3  +18.5  at North Carolina State     38
10/ 3/2009  North Carolina State     24  + 3.0  at Wake Forest              30
11/15/2008  Wake Forest              17  - 3.5  at North Carolina State     21
11/17/2007  North Carolina State     18  + 6.5  at Wake Forest              38
10/14/2006  Wake Forest              25  + 3.0  at North Carolina State     23
10/22/2005  North Carolina State     19  - 2.0  at Wake Forest              27
10/ 2/2004  Wake Forest              21  + 8.5  at North Carolina State     27
 9/ 6/2003  North Carolina State     24  - 8.5  at Wake Forest              38
 9/14/2002  Wake Forest              13  +14.5  at North Carolina State     32
10/ 6/2001  North Carolina State     17  - 3.5  at Wake Forest              14
11/25/2000  Wake Forest              14  +17.5  at North Carolina State     32
 9/25/1999  North Carolina State      7  - 6.5  at Wake Forest              31
11/ 7/1998  Wake Forest              27  +14.0  at North Carolina State     38
 9/25/1997  North Carolina State     18  - 4.5  at Wake Forest              19
11/23/1996  Wake Forest              22  +14.0  at North Carolina State     37
11/18/1995  North Carolina State     52  - 6.0  at Wake Forest              23
10/15/1994  Wake Forest               3  +26.5  at North Carolina State     34
 9/11/1993  North Carolina State     34  -11.0  at Wake Forest              16
11/21/1992  Wake Forest              14  + 9.5  at North Carolina State     42
 9/21/1991  North Carolina State     30  -13.0  at Wake Forest               3
 9/15/1990  Wake Forest              15  +14.0  at North Carolina State     20
  
   average outcome:
     North Carolina State    28.3  Wake Forest             21.6
     margin =  -6.65
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     North Carolina State    28.5  Wake Forest             29.5
     margin =   1.00
  
   average result when the home team is Wake Forest            
     North Carolina State    23.5  Wake Forest             26.1
     margin =   2.67
  
   average result when the home team is North Carolina State   
     Wake Forest             17.4  North Carolina State    32.8
     margin =  15.38
  
    45.45 % of games went Over
    45.45 % went Over at Wake Forest            
    (since        1997 )
  
   average total points per game =  49.87
   time-weighted average total   =  58.01
  
   the home team covered  70.97 % of the time
   the road team covered  29.03 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  4.73
  
   the favorite  covered  54.84 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  45.16 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.92
  
   the favorite won SU    67.74 % of the time
  
   North Carolina State    covered  48.39 % of the time
   Wake Forest             covered  51.61 % of the time
  
   Wake Forest             covered  73.33 % of the time at home
   Wake Forest             covered 100.00 % of the time as home favorites

Here are 3 score predictions from our model. The 1st score uses season to date data. The 2nd score uses data from the last 4 games and the 3rd score uses data from the last 7 games.

North Carolina State      66.5          29           
Wake Forest               -2.0          24
  
North Carolina State      66.5          45           
Wake Forest               -2.0          36
  
North Carolina State      66.5          34           
Wake Forest               -2.0          30

As you can see, the model predicts an upset and agrees with the line move on this game and we agree.

NC State +2