NC State at Miami – Free College Football Pick – 10/23/21

Miami will host NC State on Saturday as a +3.5 home underdog. The current total is 53 and the game can be seen on ESPN2 at 7:30 pm est.

NC State is rolling along at 5-1, 2-0 in conference play. That 2-0 mark puts them in 2nd place behind 4-0 Wake Forest who has 2 games in hand. The Wolfpack’s only loss this year came to Miss State, 24-10.

Miami finds themselves a disappointing 2-4, 0-2 in conference play. Their last two losses came by 2 and 3 points to Virginia and UNC.

Head to Head History

11/ 6/2020  Miami                    44  - 9.5  at North Carolina State     41
11/19/2016  Miami                    27  - 2.5  at North Carolina State     13
 9/29/2012  North Carolina State     37  + 2.5  at Miami                    44
11/29/2008  Miami                    28  - 1.5  at North Carolina State     38
11/ 3/2007  North Carolina State     19  +13.5  at Miami                    16
10/23/2004  Miami                    45  - 7.5  at North Carolina State     31
12/29/1998  North Carolina State     23  + 7.0  ~@ Miami                    46
  
   average outcome:
     North Carolina State    28.9  Miami                   35.7
     margin =   6.86
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     North Carolina State    31.3  Miami                   38.2
     margin =   6.91
  
   average result when the home team is Miami                  
     North Carolina State    28.0  Miami                   30.0
     margin =   2.00
  
   average result when the home team is North Carolina State   
     Miami                   36.0  North Carolina State    30.8
     margin =  -5.25
  
    71.43 % of games went Over
    50.00 % went Over at Miami                  
  
   average total points per game =  64.57
   time-weighted average total   =  69.52
  
   the home team covered  57.14 % of the time
   the road team covered  42.86 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.57
  
   the favorite  covered  57.14 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  42.86 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.57
  
   the favorite won SU    71.43 % of the time
  
   North Carolina State    covered  42.86 % of the time
   Miami                   covered  57.14 % of the time
  
   Miami                   covered  50.00 % of the time at home

Predicted score from our model. First score uses full season data, 2nd score uses last 4 games only.

North Carolina State      -3.5          26           
Miami                     52.5          19
  
North Carolina State      -3.5          33           
Miami                     52.5          27

Here are the yards per point numbers for both teams. First number is offense, 2nd defense. The lower the offensive number, the more efficient the offense. The higher the 2nd number, the better the defense.

NC State has simply been the better team on both sides of the ball this year. We agree with the model here. We’ll lay the small spot.

NC State -3.5