Stanford at Arizona State PAC-12 CFB Free Pick ATS – 10/8/21

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stanford at arizona state cfb pick
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Arizona State hosts Stanford in PAC-12 action on Friday night in what will be the 2nd game of an ESPN double header. The game kicks off at 10:30 PM EST with Arizona State currently favored by -11.5, up from an opener of -9. The total is 52.

Arizona State was pegged by many to be a contender this year. They come into this game at 4-1 with their only loss at the hands of undefeated BYU.

Stanford comes into the game at 3-2. They are fresh off of an OT upset win over #8 Oregon last week, 31-24.

Head to Head History

10/18/2018  Stanford                 20  - 2.5  at Arizona State            13
 9/30/2017  Arizona State            24  +17.0  at Stanford                 34
10/18/2014  Stanford                 10  - 3.5  at Arizona State            26
12/ 7/2013  Stanford                 38  + 3.0  at Arizona State            14
 9/21/2013  Arizona State            28  + 6.5  at Stanford                 42
11/13/2010  Stanford                 17  - 5.0  at Arizona State            13
10/24/2009  Arizona State            14  + 6.5  at Stanford                 33
 9/ 6/2008  Stanford                 17  +13.5  at Arizona State            41
 9/29/2007  Arizona State            41  -15.0  at Stanford                  3
10/21/2006  Stanford                  3  +23.5  at Arizona State            38
10/22/2005  Arizona State            35  - 9.5  at Stanford                 45
11/ 6/2004  Stanford                 31  +10.5  at Arizona State            34
11/ 8/2003  Arizona State            27  - 2.5  at Stanford                 38
 9/28/2002  Stanford                 24  + 1.0  at Arizona State            65
 9/22/2001  Arizona State            28  + 3.5  at Stanford                 51
11/11/2000  Arizona State             7  + 2.5  at Stanford                 29
11/13/1999  Stanford                 50  + 3.0  at Arizona State            30
10/22/1998  Stanford                 38  +15.5  at Arizona State            44
10/18/1997  Arizona State            31  + 1.5  at Stanford                 14
10/26/1996  Arizona State            41  -14.5  at Stanford                  9
10/ 7/1995  Stanford                 30  - 3.0  at Arizona State            28
10/ 8/1994  Stanford                 35  - 1.5  at Arizona State            36
10/23/1993  Arizona State            38  +10.5  at Stanford                 30
  
   average outcome:
     Stanford                27.9  Arizona State           30.3
     margin =   2.39
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Stanford                26.8  Arizona State           20.9
     margin =  -5.85
  
   average result when the home team is Arizona State          
     Stanford                26.1  Arizona State           31.8
     margin =   5.75
  
   average result when the home team is Stanford               
     Arizona State           28.5  Stanford                29.8
     margin =   1.27
  
    52.63 % of games went Over
    54.55 % went Over at Arizona State          
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  58.13
   time-weighted average total   =  47.70
  
   the home team covered  56.52 % of the time
   the road team covered  43.48 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.96
  
   the favorite  covered  43.48 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  56.52 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.09
  
   the favorite won SU    65.22 % of the time
  
   Stanford                covered  47.83 % of the time
   Arizona State           covered  52.17 % of the time
  
   Arizona State           covered  58.33 % of the time at home
   Arizona State           covered  42.86 % of the time as home favorites

Our Pick

Both teams are looking good in conference play. Stanford, in the PAC-12 North division, sits at 2-1 and in 2nd place. Arizona State is 2-0 which places them in 1st in the PAC-12 South.

These teams haven’t met since 2018 but a quick look at their history shows us some competitive games with each team doing their fair share of winning.

Arizona State looks to be the better football team at this point. However, we’re not so sure they are 12 points better. This is a big game in terms of conference play and the Cardinal has shown it can compete.

We’ll take advantage of the line move (bonus points) and take Stanford in this spot as a live dog.

Stanford +12