Tennessee at Kentucky SEC CFB Pick ATS – 11/6/21

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tennessee vs. kentucky sec football pick
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Kentucky will host Tennessee in SEC college football action on Saturday in a game that kicks off at 7 PM EST. Kentucky opened as high as -4 in spots and has since been bet all the way down to pick. The total is 57.

Kentucky comes in at 6-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play. With just two conference games left, it’s extremely unlikely that we’ll see Kentucky in the conference championship game. A high profile bowl game of course, is still on the table.

The Vols come in at 4-4 overall and 2-3 in conference play. Tennessee has 3 games left after this week, with Georgia up next. No room for error for the Vols if they plan on going bowling this year.

Head to Head – Tennessee – Kentucky

10/17/2020  Kentucky                 34  + 6.5  at Tennessee                 7
11/ 9/2019  Tennessee                17  + 1.5  at Kentucky                 13
11/10/2018  Kentucky                  7  - 5.0  at Tennessee                24
10/28/2017  Tennessee                26  + 5.0  at Kentucky                 29
11/12/2016  Kentucky                 36  +14.0  at Tennessee                49
10/31/2015  Tennessee                52  - 9.0  at Kentucky                 21
11/15/2014  Kentucky                 16  +11.0  at Tennessee                50
11/30/2013  Tennessee                27  - 4.0  at Kentucky                 14
11/24/2012  Kentucky                 17  +13.5  at Tennessee                37
11/26/2011  Tennessee                 7  - 7.5  at Kentucky                 10
11/27/2010  Kentucky                 14  + 2.5  at Tennessee                24
11/28/2009  Tennessee                30  - 3.0  at Kentucky                 24
11/29/2008  Kentucky                 10  + 4.5  at Tennessee                28
11/24/2007  Tennessee                52  + 1.5  at Kentucky                 50
11/25/2006  Kentucky                 12  +20.5  at Tennessee                17
11/26/2005  Tennessee                27  -11.0  at Kentucky                  8
11/27/2004  Kentucky                 31  +23.5  at Tennessee                37
11/29/2003  Tennessee                20  -10.0  at Kentucky                  7
11/30/2002  Kentucky                  0  + 7.0  at Tennessee                24
11/17/2001  Tennessee                38  -16.0  at Kentucky                 35
11/18/2000  Kentucky                 20  +20.0  at Tennessee                59
11/20/1999  Tennessee                56  -12.5  at Kentucky                 21
11/21/1998  Kentucky                 21  +11.0  at Tennessee                59
11/22/1997  Tennessee                59  -14.5  at Kentucky                 31
11/23/1996  Kentucky                 10  +27.0  at Tennessee                56
11/18/1995  Tennessee                34  -24.5  at Kentucky                 31
11/19/1994  Kentucky                  0  +25.0  at Tennessee                52
11/20/1993  Tennessee                48  -16.0  at Kentucky                  0
11/21/1992  Kentucky                 13  +18.5  at Tennessee                34
11/23/1991  Tennessee                16  -19.0  at Kentucky                  7
11/24/1990  Kentucky                 28  +27.0  at Tennessee                42
  
   average outcome:
     Tennessee               35.7  Kentucky                18.4
     margin = -17.35
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Tennessee               27.5  Kentucky                21.8
     margin =  -5.73
  
   average result when the home team is Kentucky               
     Tennessee               33.9  Kentucky                20.1
     margin = -13.87
  
   average result when the home team is Tennessee              
     Kentucky                16.8  Tennessee               37.4
     margin =  20.63
  
    52.17 % of games went Over
    58.33 % went Over at Kentucky               
    (since        1997 )
  
   average total points per game =  54.13
   time-weighted average total   =  49.31
  
   the home team covered  48.39 % of the time
   the road team covered  51.61 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.11
  
   the favorite  covered  58.06 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  41.94 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.44
  
   the favorite won SU    83.87 % of the time
  
   Tennessee               covered  70.97 % of the time
   Kentucky                covered  29.03 % of the time
  
   Kentucky                covered  26.67 % of the time at home
   Kentucky                covered   0.00 % of the time as home favorites

Our model’s predictions for the game

Tennessee                 58.0          25           
Kentucky                  -3.0          28
  
Tennessee                 58.0          28           
Kentucky                  -3.0          32
  
Tennessee                 58.0          27           
Kentucky                  -3.0          28

Sharp bettors jumped on Tennessee early in the week, taking as many as +4 points on the openers and they kept betting the Vols all week. As you can see from our model’s take on  the game, it appears those early bettors were correct.

However, after such a swing in the number, the value then shifts to the other side. Here, we just need the home team Kentucky to win the game straight up.

To be clear, sports betting is a numbers game. Had we been offering our opinion on this game on Sunday when the lines were posted, we would have advised taking the points. Here, later in the week, we’re going with the value which lies with Kentucky.

Kentucky PK