Kentucky will host Tennessee in SEC college football action on Saturday in a game that kicks off at 7 PM EST. Kentucky opened as high as -4 in spots and has since been bet all the way down to pick. The total is 57.
Kentucky comes in at 6-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play. With just two conference games left, it’s extremely unlikely that we’ll see Kentucky in the conference championship game. A high profile bowl game of course, is still on the table.
The Vols come in at 4-4 overall and 2-3 in conference play. Tennessee has 3 games left after this week, with Georgia up next. No room for error for the Vols if they plan on going bowling this year.
Head to Head – Tennessee – Kentucky
10/17/2020 Kentucky 34 + 6.5 at Tennessee 7
11/ 9/2019 Tennessee 17 + 1.5 at Kentucky 13
11/10/2018 Kentucky 7 - 5.0 at Tennessee 24
10/28/2017 Tennessee 26 + 5.0 at Kentucky 29
11/12/2016 Kentucky 36 +14.0 at Tennessee 49
10/31/2015 Tennessee 52 - 9.0 at Kentucky 21
11/15/2014 Kentucky 16 +11.0 at Tennessee 50
11/30/2013 Tennessee 27 - 4.0 at Kentucky 14
11/24/2012 Kentucky 17 +13.5 at Tennessee 37
11/26/2011 Tennessee 7 - 7.5 at Kentucky 10
11/27/2010 Kentucky 14 + 2.5 at Tennessee 24
11/28/2009 Tennessee 30 - 3.0 at Kentucky 24
11/29/2008 Kentucky 10 + 4.5 at Tennessee 28
11/24/2007 Tennessee 52 + 1.5 at Kentucky 50
11/25/2006 Kentucky 12 +20.5 at Tennessee 17
11/26/2005 Tennessee 27 -11.0 at Kentucky 8
11/27/2004 Kentucky 31 +23.5 at Tennessee 37
11/29/2003 Tennessee 20 -10.0 at Kentucky 7
11/30/2002 Kentucky 0 + 7.0 at Tennessee 24
11/17/2001 Tennessee 38 -16.0 at Kentucky 35
11/18/2000 Kentucky 20 +20.0 at Tennessee 59
11/20/1999 Tennessee 56 -12.5 at Kentucky 21
11/21/1998 Kentucky 21 +11.0 at Tennessee 59
11/22/1997 Tennessee 59 -14.5 at Kentucky 31
11/23/1996 Kentucky 10 +27.0 at Tennessee 56
11/18/1995 Tennessee 34 -24.5 at Kentucky 31
11/19/1994 Kentucky 0 +25.0 at Tennessee 52
11/20/1993 Tennessee 48 -16.0 at Kentucky 0
11/21/1992 Kentucky 13 +18.5 at Tennessee 34
11/23/1991 Tennessee 16 -19.0 at Kentucky 7
11/24/1990 Kentucky 28 +27.0 at Tennessee 42
average outcome:
Tennessee 35.7 Kentucky 18.4
margin = -17.35
time-weighted average outcome:
Tennessee 27.5 Kentucky 21.8
margin = -5.73
average result when the home team is Kentucky
Tennessee 33.9 Kentucky 20.1
margin = -13.87
average result when the home team is Tennessee
Kentucky 16.8 Tennessee 37.4
margin = 20.63
52.17 % of games went Over
58.33 % went Over at Kentucky
(since 1997 )
average total points per game = 54.13
time-weighted average total = 49.31
the home team covered 48.39 % of the time
the road team covered 51.61 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.11
the favorite covered 58.06 % of the time
the underdog covered 41.94 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.44
the favorite won SU 83.87 % of the time
Tennessee covered 70.97 % of the time
Kentucky covered 29.03 % of the time
Kentucky covered 26.67 % of the time at home
Kentucky covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites
Our model’s predictions for the game
Tennessee 58.0 25 Kentucky -3.0 28 Tennessee 58.0 28 Kentucky -3.0 32 Tennessee 58.0 27 Kentucky -3.0 28
Sharp bettors jumped on Tennessee early in the week, taking as many as +4 points on the openers and they kept betting the Vols all week. As you can see from our model’s take on the game, it appears those early bettors were correct.
However, after such a swing in the number, the value then shifts to the other side. Here, we just need the home team Kentucky to win the game straight up.
To be clear, sports betting is a numbers game. Had we been offering our opinion on this game on Sunday when the lines were posted, we would have advised taking the points. Here, later in the week, we’re going with the value which lies with Kentucky.