UCLA at Stanford College Football Free Pick with Stats – 9/25/21

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ucla at stanford cfb pick ats
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UCLA at Stanford

Stanford will host UCLA on Saturday with kickoff set for 6 PM EST. The game can be seen on the PAC-12 Network. Currently Stanford is a 4 point home underdog with a total of 58.5.

Both teams come into this game at 2-1. Stanford is 1-0 in conference play with a win over USC while this is the first PAC-12 game for the Bruins. Stanford lost to Kansas State in week 1. UCLA lost to Fresno last week.

These two teams play every year and there have been no shortages of exciting games over the years. Here’s a look at the last 30 years.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
12/19/2020  Stanford                 48  + 6.5  at UCLA                     47
10/17/2019  UCLA                     34  + 3.5  at Stanford                 16
11/24/2018  Stanford                 49  - 7.0  at UCLA                     42
 9/23/2017  UCLA                     34  + 7.0  at Stanford                 58
 9/24/2016  Stanford                 22  - 3.0  at UCLA                     13
10/15/2015  UCLA                     35  + 7.0  at Stanford                 56
11/28/2014  Stanford                 31  + 6.0  at UCLA                     10
10/19/2013  UCLA                     10  + 4.5  at Stanford                 24
11/30/2012  UCLA                     24  + 9.0  at Stanford                 27
11/24/2012  Stanford                 35  - 3.0  at UCLA                     17
10/ 1/2011  UCLA                     19  +21.5  at Stanford                 45
 9/11/2010  Stanford                 35  - 6.5  at UCLA                      0
10/ 3/2009  UCLA                     16  + 5.0  at Stanford                 24
10/18/2008  Stanford                 20  - 2.5  at UCLA                     23
 9/ 1/2007  UCLA                     45  -14.0  at Stanford                 17
 9/30/2006  Stanford                  0  +23.5  at UCLA                     31
10/29/2005  UCLA                     30  - 7.0  at Stanford                 27
10/30/2004  Stanford                  0  + 6.0  at UCLA                     21
11/ 1/2003  UCLA                     14  - 5.5  at Stanford                 21
10/26/2002  Stanford                 18  + 8.5  at UCLA                     28
10/27/2001  UCLA                     28  - 7.5  at Stanford                 38
11/ 4/2000  Stanford                 35  + 8.0  at UCLA                     37
 9/25/1999  UCLA                     32  - 1.0  at Stanford                 42
10/31/1998  Stanford                 24  +28.5  at UCLA                     28
11/ 1/1997  UCLA                     27  - 6.0  at Stanford                  7
11/ 2/1996  Stanford                 21  +13.0  at UCLA                     20
10/21/1995  UCLA                     42  - 3.0  at Stanford                 28
10/29/1994  Stanford                 30  + 1.5  at UCLA                     31
 9/25/1993  UCLA                     28  + 4.0  at Stanford                 25
10/10/1992  Stanford                 19  - 3.0  at UCLA                      7
11/ 9/1991  UCLA                     10  - 4.0  at Stanford                 27
 9/15/1990  Stanford                 31  + 5.0  at UCLA                     32
  
   average outcome:
     UCLA                    25.5  Stanford                28.1
     margin =   2.66
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     UCLA                    32.0  Stanford                38.2
     margin =   6.17
  
   average result when the home team is Stanford               
     UCLA                    26.8  Stanford                30.1
     margin =   3.38
  
   average result when the home team is UCLA                   
     Stanford                26.1  UCLA                    24.2
     margin =  -1.94
  
    50.00 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Stanford               
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  53.59
   time-weighted average total   =  70.23
  
   the home team covered  45.16 % of the time
   the road team covered  54.84 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.32
  
   the favorite  covered  48.39 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  51.61 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.65
  
   the favorite won SU    68.75 % of the time
  
   UCLA                    covered  32.26 % of the time
   Stanford                covered  67.74 % of the time
  
   Stanford                covered  62.50 % of the time at home
   Stanford                covered  62.50 % of the time as home underdogs

Our Pick

Our model makes a case for backing the home dog here. It calls for a game right around the posted number and we always love a good home dog that has the potential to win a game outright.

But one of the first things any handicapper should look for when backing a dog is the running game on both sides of the ball. An underdog that runs the ball and stops the run better than their opponent is always worth a strong look.

That’s not the case here. So far this year, Stanford can’t do either. They rank towards the bottom of the pack on both sides of the ball against the run.

UCLA on the other hand, does both well, ranking towards the top on both sides of the ball. College football in most cases is still very elementary and the ability to run the ball and stop the run better than your opponent wins many games.

UCLA -4.5