UCLA at Stanford
Stanford will host UCLA on Saturday with kickoff set for 6 PM EST. The game can be seen on the PAC-12 Network. Currently Stanford is a 4 point home underdog with a total of 58.5.
Both teams come into this game at 2-1. Stanford is 1-0 in conference play with a win over USC while this is the first PAC-12 game for the Bruins. Stanford lost to Kansas State in week 1. UCLA lost to Fresno last week.
These two teams play every year and there have been no shortages of exciting games over the years. Here’s a look at the last 30 years.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games):
12/19/2020 Stanford 48 + 6.5 at UCLA 47
10/17/2019 UCLA 34 + 3.5 at Stanford 16
11/24/2018 Stanford 49 - 7.0 at UCLA 42
9/23/2017 UCLA 34 + 7.0 at Stanford 58
9/24/2016 Stanford 22 - 3.0 at UCLA 13
10/15/2015 UCLA 35 + 7.0 at Stanford 56
11/28/2014 Stanford 31 + 6.0 at UCLA 10
10/19/2013 UCLA 10 + 4.5 at Stanford 24
11/30/2012 UCLA 24 + 9.0 at Stanford 27
11/24/2012 Stanford 35 - 3.0 at UCLA 17
10/ 1/2011 UCLA 19 +21.5 at Stanford 45
9/11/2010 Stanford 35 - 6.5 at UCLA 0
10/ 3/2009 UCLA 16 + 5.0 at Stanford 24
10/18/2008 Stanford 20 - 2.5 at UCLA 23
9/ 1/2007 UCLA 45 -14.0 at Stanford 17
9/30/2006 Stanford 0 +23.5 at UCLA 31
10/29/2005 UCLA 30 - 7.0 at Stanford 27
10/30/2004 Stanford 0 + 6.0 at UCLA 21
11/ 1/2003 UCLA 14 - 5.5 at Stanford 21
10/26/2002 Stanford 18 + 8.5 at UCLA 28
10/27/2001 UCLA 28 - 7.5 at Stanford 38
11/ 4/2000 Stanford 35 + 8.0 at UCLA 37
9/25/1999 UCLA 32 - 1.0 at Stanford 42
10/31/1998 Stanford 24 +28.5 at UCLA 28
11/ 1/1997 UCLA 27 - 6.0 at Stanford 7
11/ 2/1996 Stanford 21 +13.0 at UCLA 20
10/21/1995 UCLA 42 - 3.0 at Stanford 28
10/29/1994 Stanford 30 + 1.5 at UCLA 31
9/25/1993 UCLA 28 + 4.0 at Stanford 25
10/10/1992 Stanford 19 - 3.0 at UCLA 7
11/ 9/1991 UCLA 10 - 4.0 at Stanford 27
9/15/1990 Stanford 31 + 5.0 at UCLA 32
average outcome:
UCLA 25.5 Stanford 28.1
margin = 2.66
time-weighted average outcome:
UCLA 32.0 Stanford 38.2
margin = 6.17
average result when the home team is Stanford
UCLA 26.8 Stanford 30.1
margin = 3.38
average result when the home team is UCLA
Stanford 26.1 UCLA 24.2
margin = -1.94
50.00 % of games went Over
66.67 % went Over at Stanford
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 53.59
time-weighted average total = 70.23
the home team covered 45.16 % of the time
the road team covered 54.84 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.32
the favorite covered 48.39 % of the time
the underdog covered 51.61 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.65
the favorite won SU 68.75 % of the time
UCLA covered 32.26 % of the time
Stanford covered 67.74 % of the time
Stanford covered 62.50 % of the time at home
Stanford covered 62.50 % of the time as home underdogs
Our Pick
Our model makes a case for backing the home dog here. It calls for a game right around the posted number and we always love a good home dog that has the potential to win a game outright.
But one of the first things any handicapper should look for when backing a dog is the running game on both sides of the ball. An underdog that runs the ball and stops the run better than their opponent is always worth a strong look.
That’s not the case here. So far this year, Stanford can’t do either. They rank towards the bottom of the pack on both sides of the ball against the run.
UCLA on the other hand, does both well, ranking towards the top on both sides of the ball. College football in most cases is still very elementary and the ability to run the ball and stop the run better than your opponent wins many games.