The Miami Hurricanes will host Virginia in ACC College football action Thursday Night on ESPN. Miami is listed as a -4 point favorite with a total of 62 as of Monday afternoon.
Neither team is off to a good start thus far in 2021. Miami has already dropped two home games and barely got by App State, also at home. Last week they beat up on Central Connecticut.
Virginia started out 2-0 but the Cavs have dropped their last two games, one to North Carolina and last week to Wake Forest.
Head to Head History
head-to-head history (lined games): 10/24/2020 Virginia 14 +14.0 at Miami 19 10/11/2019 Virginia 9 + 2.5 at Miami 17 10/13/2018 Miami 13 - 7.0 at Virginia 16 11/18/2017 Virginia 28 +20.0 at Miami 44 11/12/2016 Miami 34 -10.5 at Virginia 14 11/ 7/2015 Virginia 21 + 6.5 at Miami 27 11/22/2014 Miami 13 - 6.0 at Virginia 30 11/23/2013 Virginia 26 +20.0 at Miami 45 11/10/2012 Miami 40 + 1.5 at Virginia 41 10/27/2011 Virginia 28 +14.0 at Miami 21 10/30/2010 Miami 19 -15.0 at Virginia 24 11/ 7/2009 Virginia 17 +13.5 at Miami 52 11/ 1/2008 Miami 24 + 2.5 at Virginia 17 11/10/2007 Virginia 48 + 4.0 at Miami 0 11/18/2006 Miami 7 - 3.0 at Virginia 17 11/26/2005 Virginia 17 +18.5 at Miami 25 11/13/2004 Miami 31 + 3.5 at Virginia 21 12/27/1996 Virginia 21 + 3.5 [email protected] Miami 31 average outcome: Virginia 22.7 Miami 25.7 margin = 2.94 time-weighted average outcome: Virginia 18.2 Miami 24.6 margin = 6.41 average result when the home team is Miami Virginia 23.1 Miami 27.8 margin = 4.67 average result when the home team is Virginia Miami 22.6 Virginia 22.5 margin = -0.13 44.44 % of games went Over 55.56 % went Over at Miami average total points per game = 48.39 time-weighted average total = 42.83 the home team covered 38.89 % of the time the road team covered 61.11 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -1.75 the favorite covered 22.22 % of the time the underdog covered 77.78 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -8.03 the favorite won SU 55.56 % of the time Virginia covered 61.11 % of the time Miami covered 38.89 % of the time Miami covered 22.22 % of the time at home Miami covered 22.22 % of the time as home favorites
While each team has lost a couple of games, this game is a must win for Virginia in terms of conference play. The Cavs are already 0-2 in conference play and a loss here would pretty much do them in.
The Hurricanes on the other hand, have yet to play a conference game. They have a clean slate and are very much in the picture.
Virginia is ranked 119th out of the 130 college football teams we track in yards given up per rush attempt at 6. You won’t win many football games giving up that type of yardage on the ground.
Offensively, the Cavs are going to throw, throw and throw some more. It’s not a balanced attack and it’s going to hurt them long term. It just doesn’t work.
Miami has played the tougher schedule. The Hurricanes should be able to move the ball with ease in this game. They have yet to leave Miami for a game, this being their 5th straight home game and last week against Central Connecticut was essentially a practice scrimmage.
We’ll take a Miami team that should be well rested and in much better shape to get the win here, at home, to start conference play 1-0.