Free Pick – Virginia at Miami Florida – College Football – 9/30/21

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virginia at miami college football pick ats
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The Miami Hurricanes will host Virginia in ACC College football action Thursday Night on ESPN. Miami is listed as a -4 point favorite with a total of 62 as of Monday afternoon.

Neither team is off to a good start thus far in 2021. Miami has already dropped two home games and barely got by App State, also at home. Last week they beat up on Central Connecticut.

Virginia started out 2-0 but the Cavs have dropped their last two games, one to North Carolina and last week to Wake Forest.

Head to Head History

head-to-head history (lined games):
  
10/24/2020  Virginia                 14  +14.0  at Miami                    19
10/11/2019  Virginia                  9  + 2.5  at Miami                    17
10/13/2018  Miami                    13  - 7.0  at Virginia                 16
11/18/2017  Virginia                 28  +20.0  at Miami                    44
11/12/2016  Miami                    34  -10.5  at Virginia                 14
11/ 7/2015  Virginia                 21  + 6.5  at Miami                    27
11/22/2014  Miami                    13  - 6.0  at Virginia                 30
11/23/2013  Virginia                 26  +20.0  at Miami                    45
11/10/2012  Miami                    40  + 1.5  at Virginia                 41
10/27/2011  Virginia                 28  +14.0  at Miami                    21
10/30/2010  Miami                    19  -15.0  at Virginia                 24
11/ 7/2009  Virginia                 17  +13.5  at Miami                    52
11/ 1/2008  Miami                    24  + 2.5  at Virginia                 17
11/10/2007  Virginia                 48  + 4.0  at Miami                     0
11/18/2006  Miami                     7  - 3.0  at Virginia                 17
11/26/2005  Virginia                 17  +18.5  at Miami                    25
11/13/2004  Miami                    31  + 3.5  at Virginia                 21
12/27/1996  Virginia                 21  + 3.5  [email protected] Miami                    31
  
   average outcome:
     Virginia                22.7  Miami                   25.7
     margin =   2.94
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Virginia                18.2  Miami                   24.6
     margin =   6.41
  
   average result when the home team is Miami                  
     Virginia                23.1  Miami                   27.8
     margin =   4.67
  
   average result when the home team is Virginia               
     Miami                   22.6  Virginia                22.5
     margin =  -0.13
  
    44.44 % of games went Over
    55.56 % went Over at Miami                  
  
   average total points per game =  48.39
   time-weighted average total   =  42.83
  
   the home team covered  38.89 % of the time
   the road team covered  61.11 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.75
  
   the favorite  covered  22.22 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  77.78 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -8.03
  
   the favorite won SU    55.56 % of the time
  
   Virginia                covered  61.11 % of the time
   Miami                   covered  38.89 % of the time
  
   Miami                   covered  22.22 % of the time at home
   Miami                   covered  22.22 % of the time as home favorites

While each team has lost a couple of games, this game is a must win for Virginia in terms of conference play. The Cavs are already 0-2 in conference play and a loss here would pretty much do them in.

The Hurricanes on the other hand, have yet to play a conference game. They have a clean slate and are very much in the picture.

Virginia is ranked 119th out of the 130 college football teams we track in yards given up per rush attempt at 6. You won’t win many football games giving up that type of yardage on the ground.

Offensively, the Cavs are going to throw, throw and throw some more. It’s not a balanced attack and it’s going to hurt them long term. It just doesn’t work.

Miami has played the tougher schedule. The Hurricanes should be able to move the ball with ease in this game. They have yet to leave Miami for a game, this being their 5th straight home game and last week against Central Connecticut was essentially a practice scrimmage.

We’ll take a Miami team that should be well rested and in much better shape to get the win here, at home, to start conference play 1-0.

3* Miami -4

1* Miami/Virginia UNDER 62