Baylor at Iowa State CFB Pick ATS – 9-24

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Iowa State will host Baylor on Saturday September 24th with kickoff scheduled for 12 noon est. The game opened at pk at CIRCA las Vegas and now sits at Iowa State -2.5 across the board. The total at betonline is 46.

Very similar situation for these two teams in that both were tested once this year while also playing two cupcakes. Baylor’s test came against BYU in a game they lost on the road in OT, 26-20. Iowa State’s test also came on the road, at Iowa, however in the Cyclones case, they came away with a 10-7 win.

Historically Close

There’s been no shortage of close games in the recent history of this series with 4 of the last 6 decided by 7 points or less and 3 of the last 6 decided by 3 points or less. Last year was one such game with Baylor coming away with a 31-29 home win.

Iowa State scored first last year but Baylor tIed it and then pulled ahead and never looked back. The Bears led at one point by a score of 28-16. The Cyclones fought back and scored with 24 seconds remaining to come within two but they were stopped on the two point conversion.

While the score was close on the scoreboard it wasn’t all that close statistically. It was actually Iowa State who won the stat battle. Total yardage favored Iowa State 479 to 282. Yards per play 6.6 to 5.4. First downs 27 to 15. Time of possession 36 to 24. Not the kind of statistical edge you’d expect from the team that lost.

Here is a look at the recent history between these two teams.

head-to-head history (lined games):
 9/25/2021  Iowa State               29  - 7.0  at Baylor                   31
11/ 7/2020  Baylor                   31  +14.0  at Iowa State               38
 9/28/2019  Iowa State               21  - 2.5  at Baylor                   23
11/10/2018  Baylor                   14  +16.5  at Iowa State               28
11/18/2017  Iowa State               23  - 7.5  at Baylor                   13
10/ 1/2016  Baylor                   45  -17.0  at Iowa State               42
10/24/2015  Iowa State               27  +37.0  at Baylor                   45
 9/27/2014  Baylor                   49  -21.5  at Iowa State               28
10/19/2013  Iowa State                7  +33.0  at Baylor                   71
10/27/2012  Baylor                   21  + 2.5  at Iowa State               35
10/ 8/2011  Iowa State               26  +15.5  at Baylor                   49
10/17/2009  Baylor                   10  + 1.0  at Iowa State               24
10/11/2008  Iowa State               10  + 4.5  at Baylor                   38
10/ 8/2005  Baylor                   23  + 9.0  at Iowa State               13
10/23/2004  Iowa State               26  - 8.0  at Baylor                   25
 9/29/2001  Baylor                    0  +14.5  at Iowa State               41
 9/30/2000  Iowa State               31  -12.0  at Baylor                   17
10/25/1997  Baylor                   17  - 6.0  at Iowa State               24
10/26/1996  Iowa State               21  + 7.5  at Baylor                   49

Our model is not going to be much help for another couple of weeks. Again, we need a minimum 4 games worth of data. At the moment, we are mixing in data from last year with this years stats.

Nonetheless, we’ll take a look at the prediction.

Baylor                     46.          19           
Iowa State                -2.5          22
Baylor                     46.          11           
Iowa State                -2.5          20
Baylor                     46.          19           
Iowa State                -2.5          17

As you can see, a close low scoring game is predicted. Makes sense. Both of these defenses have been playing great while both teams had to replace QB’s and RB’s on the offense.

These teams have traded wins the last 4 times they have played with the home team coming away with the win in each instance. Historically the home team has covered at a 68% clip in this series and we see no reason for that not to continue here.

A little revenge motive never hurts either. We have the home team with a small spot to cover in what is likely a game that goes to the wire.

Iowa State -2.5


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