Unranked Florida State will host undefeated and 4th ranked Clemson on Saturday in ACC college football action. The Tigers are currently -3.5 point road favorites with a total of 51 at GTBets.
This game of course has national title implications because of 6-0 Clemson. As far as the ACC race goes, Clemson is 4-0 in conference play, a full two games ahead of the Seminoles at 2-2. A win keeps hopes alive for FSU while a loss likely knocks them out of contention.
Clemson has had the recent edge in this series winning the last 6. Only one of those 6 wins was by less than 10 points, a 37-34 win in 2016. Last year Clemson won 30-20.
Head to Head
10/30/2021 Florida State 20 + 9.5 at Clemson 30
10/12/2019 Florida State 14 +26.0 at Clemson 45
10/27/2018 Clemson 59 -17.5 at Florida State 10
11/11/2017 Florida State 14 +16.0 at Clemson 31
10/29/2016 Clemson 37 - 4.5 at Florida State 34
11/ 7/2015 Florida State 13 +10.5 at Clemson 23
9/20/2014 Clemson 17 +14.5 at Florida State 23
10/19/2013 Florida State 51 - 3.0 at Clemson 14
9/22/2012 Clemson 37 +14.0 at Florida State 49
9/24/2011 Florida State 30 + 2.5 at Clemson 35
11/13/2010 Clemson 13 + 5.5 at Florida State 16
11/ 7/2009 Florida State 24 + 9.5 at Clemson 40
11/ 8/2008 Clemson 27 + 4.0 at Florida State 41
9/ 3/2007 Florida State 18 - 1.5 at Clemson 24
9/16/2006 Clemson 27 + 4.5 at Florida State 20
11/12/2005 Florida State 14 - 3.0 at Clemson 35
9/25/2004 Clemson 22 +18.0 at Florida State 41
11/ 8/2003 Florida State 10 -17.0 at Clemson 26
10/ 3/2002 Clemson 31 +17.5 at Florida State 48
11/ 3/2001 Florida State 41 - 7.5 at Clemson 27
11/ 4/2000 Clemson 7 +18.5 at Florida State 54
10/23/1999 Florida State 17 -16.0 at Clemson 14
10/17/1998 Clemson 0 +27.0 at Florida State 48
9/20/1997 Florida State 35 -20.0 at Clemson 28
10/ 5/1996 Clemson 3 +29.5 at Florida State 34
9/ 9/1995 Florida State 45 -20.5 at Clemson 26
10/22/1994 Clemson 0 +30.0 at Florida State 17
9/11/1993 Clemson 0 +23.0 at Florida State 57
9/12/1992 Florida State 24 - 6.5 at Clemson 20
average outcome:
Clemson 24.1 Florida State 29.7
margin = 5.66
time-weighted average outcome:
Clemson 35.9 Florida State 19.1
margin = -16.75
average result when the home team is Florida State
Clemson 20.0 Florida State 35.1
margin = 15.14
average result when the home team is Clemson
Florida State 24.7 Clemson 27.9
margin = 3.20
65.22 % of games went Over
80.00 % went Over at Florida State
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 53.79
time-weighted average total = 55.03
the home team covered 65.52 % of the time
the road team covered 34.48 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 3.34
the favorite covered 48.28 % of the time
the underdog covered 51.72 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.69
the favorite won SU 86.21 % of the time
Clemson covered 65.52 % of the time
Florida State covered 34.48 % of the time
Florida State covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Florida State covered 50.00 % of the time as home underdogs
While Clemson is undefeated at 6-0 they’ve yet to establish themselves as a dominant force. You have to toss out games against Boston College, La Tech, Furman and even Georgia Tech. That leaves a 30-20 win over NC State and a 51-45 win over Wake Forest. Neither of those two wins were overly impressive.
But caution should definitely be used when considering wagering against Clemson. One stat that’s dominant despite the weak opposition is their running game. Their rushing yards per attempt differential is +2.6 which ranks 5th in the nation. The teams above them are Alabama, Michigan, TCU and James Madison. One team below them is Georgia.
So they keep good company in that category. What those teams have in common is that they win AND cover frequently.
But we can’t ignore Clemson’s lack of legit opponents and the results in the two games when they faced teams with a pulse. Florida State has played LSU, NC State and Wake Forest to go along with a couple of cupcake blowouts of their own. This isn’t the Clemson of old with Trevor Lawrence.
We like our chances here with Florida State at home to take this game to the wire. Our model agrees calling for a 2 to 3 point Clemson win. No big edge but we’ll grab the +3.5 here.