Clemson at Florida State ACC Football Pick – 10-15

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clemson at florida state acc cfb pick
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Unranked Florida State will host undefeated and 4th ranked Clemson on Saturday in ACC college football action. The Tigers are currently -3.5 point road favorites with a total of 51 at GTBets.

This game of course has national title implications because of 6-0 Clemson. As far as the ACC race goes, Clemson is 4-0 in conference play, a full two games ahead of the Seminoles at 2-2. A win keeps hopes alive for FSU while a loss likely knocks them out of contention.

Clemson has had the recent edge in this series winning the last 6. Only one of those 6 wins was by less than 10 points, a 37-34 win in 2016. Last year Clemson won 30-20.

Head to Head

10/30/2021  Florida State            20  + 9.5  at Clemson                  30
10/12/2019  Florida State            14  +26.0  at Clemson                  45
10/27/2018  Clemson                  59  -17.5  at Florida State            10
11/11/2017  Florida State            14  +16.0  at Clemson                  31
10/29/2016  Clemson                  37  - 4.5  at Florida State            34
11/ 7/2015  Florida State            13  +10.5  at Clemson                  23
 9/20/2014  Clemson                  17  +14.5  at Florida State            23
10/19/2013  Florida State            51  - 3.0  at Clemson                  14
 9/22/2012  Clemson                  37  +14.0  at Florida State            49
 9/24/2011  Florida State            30  + 2.5  at Clemson                  35
11/13/2010  Clemson                  13  + 5.5  at Florida State            16
11/ 7/2009  Florida State            24  + 9.5  at Clemson                  40
11/ 8/2008  Clemson                  27  + 4.0  at Florida State            41
 9/ 3/2007  Florida State            18  - 1.5  at Clemson                  24
 9/16/2006  Clemson                  27  + 4.5  at Florida State            20
11/12/2005  Florida State            14  - 3.0  at Clemson                  35
 9/25/2004  Clemson                  22  +18.0  at Florida State            41
11/ 8/2003  Florida State            10  -17.0  at Clemson                  26
10/ 3/2002  Clemson                  31  +17.5  at Florida State            48
11/ 3/2001  Florida State            41  - 7.5  at Clemson                  27
11/ 4/2000  Clemson                   7  +18.5  at Florida State            54
10/23/1999  Florida State            17  -16.0  at Clemson                  14
10/17/1998  Clemson                   0  +27.0  at Florida State            48
 9/20/1997  Florida State            35  -20.0  at Clemson                  28
10/ 5/1996  Clemson                   3  +29.5  at Florida State            34
 9/ 9/1995  Florida State            45  -20.5  at Clemson                  26
10/22/1994  Clemson                   0  +30.0  at Florida State            17
 9/11/1993  Clemson                   0  +23.0  at Florida State            57
 9/12/1992  Florida State            24  - 6.5  at Clemson                  20
  
   average outcome:
     Clemson                 24.1  Florida State           29.7
     margin =   5.66
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Clemson                 35.9  Florida State           19.1
     margin = -16.75
  
   average result when the home team is Florida State          
     Clemson                 20.0  Florida State           35.1
     margin =  15.14
  
   average result when the home team is Clemson                
     Florida State           24.7  Clemson                 27.9
     margin =   3.20
  
    65.22 % of games went Over
    80.00 % went Over at Florida State          
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  53.79
   time-weighted average total   =  55.03
  
   the home team covered  65.52 % of the time
   the road team covered  34.48 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  3.34
  
   the favorite  covered  48.28 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  51.72 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.69
  
   the favorite won SU    86.21 % of the time
  
   Clemson                 covered  65.52 % of the time
   Florida State           covered  34.48 % of the time
  
   Florida State           covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Florida State           covered  50.00 % of the time as home underdogs

While Clemson is undefeated at 6-0 they’ve yet to establish themselves as a dominant force. You have to toss out games against Boston College, La Tech, Furman and even Georgia Tech. That leaves a 30-20 win over NC State and a 51-45 win over Wake Forest. Neither of those two wins were overly impressive.

But caution should definitely be used when considering wagering against Clemson. One stat that’s dominant despite the weak opposition is their running game. Their rushing yards per attempt differential is +2.6 which ranks 5th in the nation. The teams above them are Alabama, Michigan, TCU and James Madison. One team below them is Georgia.

So they keep good company in that category. What those teams have in common is that they win AND cover frequently.

But we can’t ignore Clemson’s lack of legit opponents and the results in the two games when they faced teams with a pulse. Florida State has played LSU, NC State and Wake Forest to go along with a couple of cupcake blowouts of their own. This isn’t the Clemson of old with Trevor Lawrence.

We like our chances here with Florida State at home to take this game to the wire. Our model agrees calling for a 2 to 3 point Clemson win. No big edge but we’ll grab the +3.5 here.

Florida State +3.5