Here we’ll take a look at each and every NFL game on the betting board for week 6. After 5 weeks of play playoff and Super Bowl contenders have clearly started to emerge. Lots of mediocrity in the NFL but the top 8 teams or so should provide us with plenty of excitement. Starting this week with a couple of fantastic matchups.
Bucs at Steelers – Bucs are a popular teaser pick this week and why not. You can bring them down to -2 and pick up the key #’s of 3 and 7 along the way. They should win, obviously. It’s Kenny Pickett vs. Tom Brady. Or, actually, it’s Pickett and the 30th ranked yards per point offense vs. the Bucs and their 5th ranked ypp defense. Bucs -8
Bengals at Saints – Saints have received some sharp action this week off last weeks win over Seattle. But we’re not going to bite. In a game where we essentially just need to pick a winner, we’ll take the team with the better QB as well as the 7th best yards per point defense to beat the team whose defense ranks 31st out of 32 teams (ypp). Bengals -2
Jaguars at Colts – One would think Matt Ryan would be able to add some spark to this anemic Colts offense at some point. But the Jags have the Colts number (13-1) and the numbers suggest the wrong team is favored. Jags a viable teaser option at +8. 4th best in the NFL in points allowed. Jags +2
Patriots at Browns – Pats sent a message last week by shutting out what was the highest scoring team in the NFL, the Lions. Browns similar in that their offense can move it but the defense lacks. Our numbers have NE by 3. Patriots +2.5
Jets at Packers – Jets a hot play this week by some sharp handicappers. We agree. This line is inflated based on who the Packers WERE, not who they ARE. The GB offense ranks 27th in the NFL using yards per point to rank. To date, not the type of offense you want to be laying a TD+ with. (Also note Rodgers thumb injury) Jets +7.5
Ravens at Giants – How bout these Giants?! 4-1 and in contention in what looks like a very tough NFC East. Both of these teams are sound defensively but it’s on the offensive side of the ball that there’s a big gap between these two. Ravens -5.5
Vikings at Dolphins – Can’t get involved with the Dolphins starting a rookie QB against the solid defense of the Vikings. Vikings -3
49ers at Falcons – Falcons are a surprise thus far however the 49ers are a legit Super Bowl contender. They are #2 in the NFL in yards per play offensively and #1 in yards per play given up defensively. This spot is reasonable. 49ers -5
Panthers at Rams – The Rams have already played Dallas, Buffalo and and San Fran, 3 of the best in the NFL this year. Hence, their numbers don’t look so hot. Yet even against Atlanta they only scored 20. Laying double digits with this Rams team is risky. Yes, big trouble in Carolina, Rhule gone, but we’ll take the big spot here. Panthers +10
Cardinals at Seahawks – Some sharp bettors we respect grabbed Seattle early in the week at +3. Probably because the Cards yards per play differential of -1 ranks 30th of 32 NFL teams, suggesting they have no business being favored on the road. But those bettors are sharp for a reason. They grabbed +3. There’s a big difference between +3 and +2.5 in the NFL. At +2.5, more of a lean. Seattle +2.5
Bills at Chiefs – What a game! Chiefs are vulnerable on defense. They gave up 60 points the past two weeks. Their defense ranks 27th in the NFL using yards per point. The offense, which ranks #1 using the same stat can overcome that weakness most weeks. Maybe not this week though. The Bills defense ranks 2nd and we know what they can do offensively. Plus the Bills have a score to settle. Bills -2.5
Cowboys at Eagles – The NFL has outdone themselves with the Chiefs/Bills followed by Dallas and Philly. Four of the best teams, back to back. The Cowboys defense looks to be the real deal and Cooper Rush has Cowboys fans wondering if maybe Dak Prescott should stay on the bench. Not a bad problem to have. Cowboys +6.5
Broncos at Chargers – This game is a letdown after that Sunday afternoon, Sunday night double dip featuring the leagues best. Broncos can’t score but their defense is stout. We’ll go under the total here. Under 46