LSU at Florida SEC Football Pick – 10-15

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lsu at florida sec football pick
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LSU will look to bounce back from their embarrassing 40-13 home loss to Tennessee last week when they head to Florida to take on the Gators. Florida is currently favored by 2.5 with a total of 50.5 at GTBets.

LSU has held the upper hand in this serries recently going 7-2 over the last 9 games. During that stretch every game but one was decided by one score with the average score 28-25 in favor of LSU. The margin in games at Florida was 26-26.

Head to Head

10/16/2021  Florida                  42  -12.0  at L.S.U.                   49
12/12/2020  L.S.U.                   37  +23.0  at Florida                  34
10/12/2019  Florida                  28  +14.0  at L.S.U.                   42
10/ 6/2018  L.S.U.                   19  - 2.0  at Florida                  27
10/ 7/2017  L.S.U.                   17  + 2.0  at Florida                  16
11/19/2016  Florida                  16  +14.5  at L.S.U.                   10
10/17/2015  Florida                  28  + 7.0  at L.S.U.                   35
10/11/2014  L.S.U.                   30  - 2.0  at Florida                  27
10/12/2013  Florida                   6  + 7.5  at L.S.U.                   17
10/ 6/2012  L.S.U.                    6  - 2.5  at Florida                  14
10/ 8/2011  Florida                  11  +13.5  at L.S.U.                   41
10/ 9/2010  L.S.U.                   33  + 6.5  at Florida                  29
10/10/2009  Florida                  13  - 8.0  at L.S.U.                    3
10/11/2008  L.S.U.                   21  + 6.0  at Florida                  51
10/ 6/2007  Florida                  24  + 9.0  at L.S.U.                   28
10/ 7/2006  L.S.U.                   10  + 2.5  at Florida                  23
10/15/2005  Florida                  17  + 6.5  at L.S.U.                   21
10/ 9/2004  L.S.U.                   24  + 4.0  at Florida                  21
10/11/2003  Florida                  19  + 9.0  at L.S.U.                    7
10/12/2002  L.S.U.                   36  + 9.5  at Florida                   7
10/ 6/2001  Florida                  44  -12.0  at L.S.U.                   15
10/ 7/2000  L.S.U.                    9  +15.0  at Florida                  41
10/ 9/1999  Florida                  31  -14.0  at L.S.U.                   10
10/10/1998  L.S.U.                   10  +12.5  at Florida                  22
10/11/1997  Florida                  21  -14.0  at L.S.U.                   28
10/12/1996  L.S.U.                   13  +19.5  at Florida                  56
10/ 7/1995  Florida                  28  - 8.0  at L.S.U.                   10
10/ 8/1994  L.S.U.                   18  +26.5  at Florida                  42
10/ 9/1993  Florida                  58  -14.0  at L.S.U.                    3
10/10/1992  L.S.U.                   21  +14.5  at Florida                  28
10/ 5/1991  Florida                  16  -22.0  at L.S.U.                    0
10/ 6/1990  L.S.U.                    8  +12.0  at Florida                  34
  
   average outcome:
     L.S.U.                  19.7  Florida                 27.3
     margin =   7.59
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     L.S.U.                  31.5  Florida                 28.8
     margin =  -2.72
  
   average result when the home team is Florida                
     L.S.U.                  19.5  Florida                 29.5
     margin =  10.00
  
   average result when the home team is L.S.U.                 
     Florida                 25.1  L.S.U.                  19.9
     margin =  -5.19
  
    44.44 % of games went Over
    46.15 % went Over at Florida                
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  47.03
   time-weighted average total   =  60.26
  
   the home team covered  40.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.57
  
   the favorite  covered  43.33 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  56.67 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.80
  
   the favorite won SU    65.63 % of the time
  
   L.S.U.                  covered  46.67 % of the time
   Florida                 covered  53.33 % of the time
  
   Florida                 covered  43.75 % of the time at home
   Florida                 covered  38.46 % of the time as home favorites

 

Despite last weeks loss to the Vols, LSU is still in the thick of things in the SEC West with a 2-1 record, trailing only Alabama and Ole Miss who are both undefeated. The Gators on the other hand have their backs against the wall. They sit at 1-2 in the SEC East and a loss here would likely be the final nail in the coffin for Florida. As it is, there’s no way they’re catching Georgia or Tennessee anyways.

Our Pick

We expect a much better effort from the Tigers this week. This LSU team isn’t as bad as they looked last week. There’s some desperation here on both sides. At this point, neither one of them is going to factor into the SEC title picture so it amounts to both teams jockeying for the best bowl birth they can get with both teams sitting at 4-2.

There’s no shortage of close games between these two teams and for that matter there’s no shortage of close games this year when these two play legitimate opponents. Heck, the Gators played a close game with South Florida.

Our model has it tight as well so we’ll  grab +3 and lay a little extra juice if we can’t get a straight 3.

LSU +3 -115 or better