Duke will hit the road to take on Pitt this week in ACC college football action. Pitt is currently a -7.5 point favorite with a total of 50.5. Both teams will be looking to set themselves up for better bowl games with a win. Only two games remain for both.
Duke is currently 4-2 in conference play and 7-3 overall. The Panthers are 6-4 overall and 3-3 in conference play. These two teams have had similar results against common opponents though Pitt has played a more difficult schedule by 4 or 5 points.
The recent history in this series dates back to 2013 and Pitt has held the upper hand going 7-1 in that time span. Pitt has won 6 in a row including last years 54-29 beat down.
Here’s a look at the head to head.
Head to Head
11/ 6/2021 Pittsburgh 54 -21.0 at Duke 29 10/ 5/2019 Pittsburgh 33 + 4.0 at Duke 30 10/27/2018 Duke 45 - 2.5 at Pittsburgh 54 10/21/2017 Pittsburgh 24 + 8.0 at Duke 17 11/19/2016 Duke 14 + 7.5 at Pittsburgh 56 11/14/2015 Pittsburgh 31 + 2.5 at Duke 13 11/ 1/2014 Duke 51 + 3.0 at Pittsburgh 48 9/21/2013 Pittsburgh 58 - 4.0 at Duke 55 average outcome: Duke 31.8 Pittsburgh 44.8 margin = 13.00 time-weighted average outcome: Duke 29.1 Pittsburgh 44.1 margin = 14.97 average result when the home team is Pittsburgh Duke 36.7 Pittsburgh 52.7 margin = 16.00 average result when the home team is Duke Pittsburgh 40.0 Duke 28.8 margin = -11.20 75.00 % of games went Over 100.00 % went Over at Pittsburgh average total points per game = 76.50 time-weighted average total = 73.24 the home team covered 37.50 % of the time the road team covered 62.50 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -0.69 the favorite covered 25.00 % of the time the underdog covered 75.00 % of the time Ave ATS differential = -2.81 the favorite won SU 37.50 % of the time Duke covered 25.00 % of the time Pittsburgh covered 75.00 % of the time Pittsburgh covered 66.67 % of the time at home Pittsburgh covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
Our model has Pitt winning this game but not covering the number. Here are three score predictions using data from the entire season, only that last 4 games and then only the last 7 games.
Duke 0.0 22 Pittsburgh -7.5 28 Duke 0.0 19 Pittsburgh -7.5 25 Duke 0.0 24 Pittsburgh -7.5 28
We agree with the model as far as Duke being the right side here but we think it could be even closer. Duke has had a fine year. They have the better defense and running game in this matchup and will be looking to turn the tables in this lopsided series.
We’ve played on Duke several times this year including last weeks win and cover over Virginia Tech. The numbers dictate what we do and in this case the numbers suggest Duke plus the points is the right side.