Duke at Pitt ACC Football Pick – 11-19

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duke at pitt acc football pick
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Duke will hit the road to take on Pitt this week in ACC college football action. Pitt is currently a -7.5 point favorite with a total of 50.5. Both teams will be looking to set themselves up for better bowl games with a win. Only two games remain for both.

Duke is currently 4-2 in conference play and 7-3 overall. The Panthers are 6-4 overall and 3-3 in conference play. These two teams have had similar results against common opponents though Pitt has played a more difficult schedule by 4 or 5 points.

The recent history in this series dates back to 2013 and Pitt has held the upper hand going 7-1 in that time span. Pitt has won 6 in a row including last years 54-29 beat down.

Here’s a look at the head to head.

Head to Head

11/ 6/2021  Pittsburgh               54  -21.0  at Duke                     29
10/ 5/2019  Pittsburgh               33  + 4.0  at Duke                     30
10/27/2018  Duke                     45  - 2.5  at Pittsburgh               54
10/21/2017  Pittsburgh               24  + 8.0  at Duke                     17
11/19/2016  Duke                     14  + 7.5  at Pittsburgh               56
11/14/2015  Pittsburgh               31  + 2.5  at Duke                     13
11/ 1/2014  Duke                     51  + 3.0  at Pittsburgh               48
 9/21/2013  Pittsburgh               58  - 4.0  at Duke                     55
  
   average outcome:
     Duke                    31.8  Pittsburgh              44.8
     margin =  13.00
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Duke                    29.1  Pittsburgh              44.1
     margin =  14.97
  
   average result when the home team is Pittsburgh             
     Duke                    36.7  Pittsburgh              52.7
     margin =  16.00
  
   average result when the home team is Duke                   
     Pittsburgh              40.0  Duke                    28.8
     margin = -11.20
  
    75.00 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at Pittsburgh             
  
   average total points per game =  76.50
   time-weighted average total   =  73.24
  
   the home team covered  37.50 % of the time
   the road team covered  62.50 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.69
  
   the favorite  covered  25.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  75.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.81
  
   the favorite won SU    37.50 % of the time
  
   Duke                    covered  25.00 % of the time
   Pittsburgh              covered  75.00 % of the time
  
   Pittsburgh              covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Pittsburgh              covered  50.00 % of the time as home favorites

Our model has Pitt winning this game but not covering the number. Here are three score predictions using data from the entire season, only that last 4 games and then only the last 7 games.

Duke                       0.0          22           
Pittsburgh                -7.5          28
  
Duke                       0.0          19           
Pittsburgh                -7.5          25
  
Duke                       0.0          24           
Pittsburgh                -7.5          28

We agree with the model as far as Duke being the right side here but we think it could be even closer. Duke has had a fine year. They have the better defense and running game in this matchup and will be looking to turn the tables in this lopsided series.

We’ve played on Duke several times this year including last weeks win and cover over Virginia Tech. The numbers dictate what we do and in this case the numbers suggest Duke plus the points is the right side.

Duke +7.5