NFL ATS Picks for Week 8 – 11-13

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Here we’ll take a look at every NFL game on the board this week and offer a selection on either the side or the total. If you’re interested in the plays of several of the top handicappers in the country for the rest of the football season with hoops thrown in as a bonus you can subscribe here!

 

Seahawks at Bucs – There’s a good chance Tom Brady and the Bucs offense improves significantly down the stretch as that unit gets more in sync. But we can’t guess when that will be. Based on results so far the wrong team is favored here. Seahawks +2.5

 

Jaguars at Chiefs – Some of our numbers favor the Jags plus the points here, but we just can’t. If the Colts and Broncos can hang 34 and 31 points on the board against the Jags, two of the worst offenses in the NFL, imagine what the Chefs can do? Chiefs -9.

 

Texans at Giants – The Giants are 6-2 and probably not as good as their record suggests. The Texans are 1-6 and likely not as bad as their record suggests. Of the many ways we have of making a line on an NFL game, most are right around the current number of -4.5. However, our model is heating up now and disagrees. It has the Giants by 13. We’ll ride the model here. Giants -4.5

 

Saints at Steelers – Short week for Saints having played Monday, looking pathetic in the process. Neither team going anywhere this year. When a team (the Saints) does a good job preventing opponents from gaining yards it should show up on the scoreboard. But the Saints rank dead last in defensive yards per point and 29th in points allowed. Our model has this game A toss up so the Steelers +7.5 in a teaser may be a viable option.

 

Lions at Bears – More NFL mediocrity on display here. Running our model with data from the entire season thus far has this game a toss up. However when we start to drop games from the beginning of the year out of the equation, the Bears margins increase. Based on current form we’ll lay the short price with Chicago. Bears -2.5 -115

 

Browns at Dolphins – The Browns are trying to hold on a few more weeks as they await Deshaun Watson to take them to the promised land. But the Dolphins are 6-3 and in the playoff hunt. More importantly they are 6-0 when Tua starts. Pick the straight up winner of an NFL game and you have a good chance to also cover the number. The straight up winner here is the Dolphins, so we’ll lay it. Miami -3.5

 

Vikings at Bills – As of Saturday it’s looking more and more like Josh Allen will play. The line at this writing is -6.5. With Allen, we’ll lay the spot and look for the Bills to get back in the win column after last weeks upset. Bills -6.5

 

Broncos at Titans – Using yards per point to rank, the Broncos have the worst offense in the NFL. Also using yards per point to rank, the Titans defense ranks 3rd. A long day for the Broncos? It’s a small spot at -2.5. This one belongs to the Titans. Titans -2.5.

 

Colts at Raiders – Two bad teams in desperate need of a win. Gotta take any points available which in this case is +4.5. Colts +4.5

 

Cardinals at Rams – Revenge not as strong of a motivator in the NFL as it is in college. However. this may be a spot where it works. Cards we’re embarrassed last year in this building in the playoffs. Especially Kyler Murray who as of this writing is questionable to play. If he plays, we’ll back the cards. Cardinals +3

 

Cowboys at Packers – The Packers offense continues to struggle. Here they face one of the better defenses in the league. The Cowboys are likely the right side in this one but it could be tight. The total is the better way to go as our model has this a 17-14 game with the Cowboys on top. Dallas/Green Bay UNDER 44.5

 

Chargers at 49ers – The yards per play line for this game is San Fran -13.5. Our model has the 49ers by 7 to 9. We’re not crazy about laying a TD or more in NFL games. But the 49ers would be a good candidate to use in a teaser in this spot.

 

Commanders at Eagles  – A big spot to cover for the Eagles (-11) under the Monday night lights. But then, the Commanders might not score! Two plays for us here. Eagles -11 and UNDER 44