Illinois at Nebraska Big 10 Football Pick – 10-29

illinois at nebraska big 10 football pick
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Nebraska will host Illinois in Big 10 football action this Saturday in a game that kicks off at 3:30 pm est. Illinois opened as low as -5 and the early bettors hammered the Illini all the way up to as high as -8. As of Tuesday there’s a mix of 7’s on up to 8 on the board. The total is 50.5 at GTBets.

Illinois is one of those teams that everyone is rooting for this year due to their historical  lack of success. Here they are in 1st place in the Big 10 West with a defense that’s playing like the 85 Bears.

While Illinois lacks recent success, that hasn’t been apparent in this series with Nebraska as you’ll see in the head to head listings below.

Head Head

 8/28/2021  Nebraska                 22  - 6.5  at Illinois                 30
11/21/2020  Illinois                 41  +15.5  at Nebraska                 23
 9/21/2019  Nebraska                 42  -13.0  at Illinois                 38
11/10/2018  Illinois                 35  +17.5  at Nebraska                 54
 9/29/2017  Nebraska                 28  - 6.0  at Illinois                  6
10/ 1/2016  Illinois                 16  +20.5  at Nebraska                 31
10/ 3/2015  Nebraska                 13  - 3.5  at Illinois                 14
 9/27/2014  Illinois                 14  +21.0  at Nebraska                 45
10/ 5/2013  Illinois                 19  + 8.5  at Nebraska                 39
   average outcome:
     Illinois                23.7  Nebraska                33.0
     margin =   9.33
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Illinois                27.9  Nebraska                31.8
     margin =   3.89
   average result when the home team is Nebraska               
     Illinois                25.0  Nebraska                38.4
     margin =  13.40
   average result when the home team is Illinois               
     Nebraska                26.3  Illinois                22.0
     margin =  -4.25
    33.33 % of games went Over
    40.00 % went Over at Nebraska               
   average total points per game =  56.67
   time-weighted average total   =  59.76
   the home team covered  66.67 % of the time
   the road team covered  33.33 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.44
   the favorite  covered  44.44 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  55.56 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.11
   the favorite won SU    66.67 % of the time
   Illinois                covered  55.56 % of the time
   Nebraska                covered  44.44 % of the time
   Nebraska                covered  60.00 % of the time at home

The Illinois defense is #1 in the Nation in Yards given up per game, #1 in yards per play given up, #2 in rushing yards given up, #5 in passing yards given up and so on. We could go on and on. Bottom line is, this is a legit defense.

The offense isn’t exactly lighting it up but QB Tommy Devito definitely adds a spark to the unit and their yards per rush attempt differential ranks among the best in the nation.

Nebraska has put some points on the board this year at times but not against a defense like the one they’ll see this week.

We think Illinois comes away with the win in this game. We’re not crazy about laying a TD or more and think the early bettors grabbing -5 and -6 had the right idea. However, we do like the total here. We could see this playing out like the Nebraska/Rutgers game, a 14-13 score, but with Illinois extending the margin a bit.

Our model has Nebraska scoring 10 points and Illinois in the 24 to 30 range.

UNDER 50.5

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