TCU at West Virginia CFB Pick ATS – 10-29

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tcu at west virginia pick ats
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West Virginia will host TCU Saturday in a game that kicks off at 12 Noon EST. TCU is currently favored by anywhere from -7 to -8 with a total of 69 at GTBets Sportsbook.

Historically speaking West Virginia holds the upper hand in this series going 6-4 over the last 10 games. In fact the Mountaineers have won 4 straight in the series and 3 of the 4 weren’t close. 2019 was the only close one, a 3 point decision.

Here’s a look at the head to head matchups.

Head to Head

10/23/2021  West Virginia            29  + 4.5  at T.C.U.                   17
11/14/2020  T.C.U.                    6  + 3.0  at West Virginia            24
11/29/2019  West Virginia            20  +13.5  at T.C.U.                   17
11/10/2018  T.C.U.                   10  +11.5  at West Virginia            47
10/ 7/2017  West Virginia            24  +13.0  at T.C.U.                   31
10/22/2016  T.C.U.                   10  + 6.0  at West Virginia            34
10/29/2015  West Virginia            10  +14.0  at T.C.U.                   40
11/ 1/2014  T.C.U.                   31  - 4.0  at West Virginia            30
11/ 2/2013  West Virginia            30  +12.0  at T.C.U.                   27
11/ 3/2012  T.C.U.                   39  + 3.5  at West Virginia            38
  
   average outcome:
     T.C.U.                  22.8  West Virginia           28.6
     margin =   5.80
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     T.C.U.                  17.5  West Virginia           27.8
     margin =  10.35
  
   average result when the home team is West Virginia          
     T.C.U.                  19.2  West Virginia           34.6
     margin =  15.40
  
   average result when the home team is T.C.U.                 
     West Virginia           22.6  T.C.U.                  26.4
     margin =   3.80
  
    30.00 % of games went Over
    40.00 % went Over at West Virginia          
  
   average total points per game =  51.40
   time-weighted average total   =  45.29
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.90
  
   the favorite  covered  40.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  1.30
  
   the favorite won SU    60.00 % of the time
  
   T.C.U.                  covered  20.00 % of the time
   West Virginia           covered  80.00 % of the time
  
   West Virginia           covered  80.00 % of the time at home
   West Virginia           covered 100.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Last year West Virginia won 29-17. In that game they outgained TCU on the ground and through the air with 487 yards of total offense. They won the fist down battle as well as the time of possession battle. They led 20-17 at the half and shut out the Horned Frogs in the 2nd half.

We’d be very surprised if the roles weren’t reversed this year. TCU is the superior unit by far. They should have their way with the Mountaineers offensively.

Of all the teams in action this week, TCU ranks 4th in the all important stat of rushing yards per attempt. The only teams ahead of them are Michigan, Ohio State and Georgia. They rank 8th in offensive yards per point and again trail teams like offensive powerhouses Tennessee and Ohio State.

On the flip side West Virginia ranks 89th out of 94 teams in action this weekend in defensive yards per point (11.6). They narrowly beat out Akron, BC, Tulsa, Rice and UMASS. A couple of teams that have BETTER defensive ypp numbers than WVA are Florida International, Akron and Colorado. Yikes!!

Our Pick

Again, TCU should have their way with this West Virginia team and should control the game offensively from the get go. Throw in the revenge angle and not just for last year but the last 4 years and combine that with our model’s prediction which has TCU winning this one by anywhere from 14 to 23 points. Looks like TCU is the way to go in this one.

The one thing that could get in the way of a TCU romp would be their motivation. They’ve had a few tough games in a row and it’s not easy to continue to get sky high. This would be a natural let down spot but the revenge motive should keep the let down at bay.

There re a couple of -7’s left on the board but they likely won’t be there much longer.

TCU -7

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