NFL Week 7 Picks ATS – 10-23

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Lions at Cowboys – We have this right around the number although our model has a predicted score favoring Dallas by 16! We’ll buck the model here though as we wouldn’t be surprised to see Dak Prescott struggle in his first game back. QB controversy? Lions +6.5


Giants at Jags – Most of our numbers have this game dead even. Our model has a 3 point game. However, one method of making a line is using yards per play. The Jags have a big edge there favoring them by more than a TD. Jaguars -3


Colts at Titans – Another game where our numbers are all over the place. Some favor one side. Others favor the other. Once again we’ll go with the yards per play line which favors the Colts. Besides, our hunch is that the Colts and Matt Ryan have finally woken up offensively. Colts +2.5


Falcons at Bengals – Falcons are playing some good football. We use several different handicapping methods to get a number on a game and they all say this line should be less the 6.5, including our model. Falcons +6.5


Browns at Ravens – Our numbers have Baltimore by -6.5 to 8 so right around the current line with a strong lean to the Ravens. However our model has this game as one of the largest margins of the weekend with the Ravens cruising to an easy double digit win. Lay it! Ravens -6.5.


Bucs at Panthers – with the Christian McCaffrey trade, the firing of head coach Matt Rhule and all that’s going on in Carolina, we have to steer clear of this one. The numbers say the line is too high but that’s because all of the recent happenings are factored into the current line. PASS


Packers at Commanders – We warned everyone last week that these Packers were overvalued because of who they used to be. One would think that Rodgers could have a break out game at any moment. But the numbers suggest this game is a toss up placing the value with the home dog. Commanders +4.5


Jets at Broncos – Who owns the least efficient offense in the NFL? Right the Broncos. But they do have a defense. Probably why the under has been a hot play all week. We’ll tag along. Under 37


Texans at Raiders – Not much interest in this one. Model says Raiders by 10 but not interested in laying points here. Texans defense not to shabby. Texans +7


Chiefs at 49ers – We were high on the 49ers. But then last week happened. They certainly didn’t look like the legit Super Bowl contender we thought they were. The addition of Christian McCaffrey should give the 49ers a boost. Both of these teams are in off a loss. We’ll make a play on Mahomes and the Chiefs offense here which should be the best unit on the field. Chiefs -1


Seahawks at Chargers – Another game between mediocre teams with very little appeal. Our model has the Chargers by 9. Chargers -4.5


Steelers at Dolphins – Speaking of lack of appeal. Tua Tagovailoa is set to return so all eyes will be on the Dolphin QB to see how he responds. He’ll face rookie Kenny Pickett who also just cleared concussion protocol. If Tua is back to his old self Miami should take this. But the cover is another story. Number seems too high. Steelers +7.5.


Bears at Patriots – The Bears offense is one of the worst in the league and they’ll face a pretty good Patriots defense here. The model says the Pats take this by about 10 points in a low scoring affair. Sounds about right. The under may be the stronger of the two plays. Patriots -8 and Under 40.5.

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