Iowa at Ohio State Big 10 Pick ATS – 10-22

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Iowa at Ohio State cfb pick
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The mighty Ohio State Buckeyes, ranked #2 in the nation will host Iowa on Saturday with kickoff set for 12 noon est. The Buckeyes opened as -27 point favorites but bettors felt that was too low and have hammered this number up to -30 as of Friday. The total is 50.

These two teams don’t play every year. They have played 9 times since 2000 with Ohio State holding a 7-2 series edge in that time span. The last time they played was 2017, a game which Iowa won 55-24.

Head to Head

11/ 4/2017  Ohio State               24  -18.0  at Iowa                     55
10/19/2013  Iowa                     24  +18.0  at Ohio State               34
11/20/2010  Ohio State               20  - 3.0  at Iowa                     17
11/14/2009  Iowa                     24  +16.5  at Ohio State               27
 9/30/2006  Ohio State               38  - 3.0  at Iowa                     17
 9/24/2005  Iowa                      6  + 7.0  at Ohio State               31
10/16/2004  Ohio State                7  - 1.5  at Iowa                     33
10/18/2003  Iowa                     10  + 3.5  at Ohio State               19
10/21/2000  Ohio State               38  -18.0  at Iowa                     10
10/30/1999  Iowa                     11  +22.0  at Ohio State               41
11/14/1998  Ohio State               45  -25.0  at Iowa                     14
10/ 4/1997  Iowa                      7  + 4.0  at Ohio State               23
10/26/1996  Ohio State               38  -14.5  at Iowa                     26
10/28/1995  Iowa                     35  +17.5  at Ohio State               56
10/31/1992  Ohio State               38  - 3.0  at Iowa                     15
11/ 2/1991  Iowa                     16  + 1.0  at Ohio State                9
11/10/1990  Ohio State               27  + 5.5  at Iowa                     26
  
   average outcome:
     Iowa                    20.4  Ohio State              30.3
     margin =   9.94
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Iowa                    43.4  Ohio State              26.6
     margin = -16.80
  
   average result when the home team is Ohio State             
     Iowa                    16.6  Ohio State              30.0
     margin =  13.38
  
   average result when the home team is Iowa                   
     Ohio State              30.6  Iowa                    23.7
     margin =  -6.89
  
    60.00 % of games went Over
    40.00 % went Over at Ohio State             
    (since        1996 )
  
   average total points per game =  50.65
   time-weighted average total   =  70.05
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  2.25
  
   the favorite  covered  56.25 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  43.75 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.88
  
   the favorite won SU    76.47 % of the time
  
   Iowa                    covered  37.50 % of the time
   Ohio State              covered  62.50 % of the time
  
   Ohio State              covered  62.50 % of the time at home
   Ohio State              covered  62.50 % of the time as home favorites

 

The problem for Iowa in this spot of course is that they are only half a team. They have one of the best defensive units in the country but they also have one of the least productive offenses.

Here they go up against one of the most potent offenses in the land and there’s just no way they can keep up and exchange points with the Buckeyes. In fact, Once Ohio State puts 14 points on the board this game is likely over.

But can Iowa cover the number?

If you go back over the last 5 years and you gave Iowa +30 points in every game they played they would have gone 61-1 against the spread. The only game they lost by more than 30 was the Big 10 Championship to Michigan last year. By the way, that game was 14-3 at the half.

Iowa has only given up 30 points total to another team once in the last 3 years and again, same game, the Big 10 title game last year. The Iowa defense this year may very well be the best of the last 5 years.

Ohio State wins this game. They may very well hang 50+ On the board by the time all is said and done. But that usually happens in the 2nd half after they have worn the opponent out. We’d be surprised if they jumped all over Iowa right out of the gate.

Our model has Ohio State winning 18-7. Using only the data from the last 4 games for each team, our model has it 25-9 Ohio State. So yeah, Iowa isn’t going to score. But the model suggests Iowa has a chance to keep Ohio State under 30. If Iowa manages a TD and a FG, then keeping them under 40 gets the cover, and so on.

We like our chances early with Iowa so we’re going to play this game as follows. (plug your nose).

Iowa +18 1st half  2/3 unit

Iowa +30 For the full game 1/3 unit