The mighty Ohio State Buckeyes, ranked #2 in the nation will host Iowa on Saturday with kickoff set for 12 noon est. The Buckeyes opened as -27 point favorites but bettors felt that was too low and have hammered this number up to -30 as of Friday. The total is 50.
These two teams don’t play every year. They have played 9 times since 2000 with Ohio State holding a 7-2 series edge in that time span. The last time they played was 2017, a game which Iowa won 55-24.
Head to Head
11/ 4/2017 Ohio State 24 -18.0 at Iowa 55
10/19/2013 Iowa 24 +18.0 at Ohio State 34
11/20/2010 Ohio State 20 - 3.0 at Iowa 17
11/14/2009 Iowa 24 +16.5 at Ohio State 27
9/30/2006 Ohio State 38 - 3.0 at Iowa 17
9/24/2005 Iowa 6 + 7.0 at Ohio State 31
10/16/2004 Ohio State 7 - 1.5 at Iowa 33
10/18/2003 Iowa 10 + 3.5 at Ohio State 19
10/21/2000 Ohio State 38 -18.0 at Iowa 10
10/30/1999 Iowa 11 +22.0 at Ohio State 41
11/14/1998 Ohio State 45 -25.0 at Iowa 14
10/ 4/1997 Iowa 7 + 4.0 at Ohio State 23
10/26/1996 Ohio State 38 -14.5 at Iowa 26
10/28/1995 Iowa 35 +17.5 at Ohio State 56
10/31/1992 Ohio State 38 - 3.0 at Iowa 15
11/ 2/1991 Iowa 16 + 1.0 at Ohio State 9
11/10/1990 Ohio State 27 + 5.5 at Iowa 26
average outcome:
Iowa 20.4 Ohio State 30.3
margin = 9.94
time-weighted average outcome:
Iowa 43.4 Ohio State 26.6
margin = -16.80
average result when the home team is Ohio State
Iowa 16.6 Ohio State 30.0
margin = 13.38
average result when the home team is Iowa
Ohio State 30.6 Iowa 23.7
margin = -6.89
60.00 % of games went Over
40.00 % went Over at Ohio State
(since 1996 )
average total points per game = 50.65
time-weighted average total = 70.05
the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 2.25
the favorite covered 56.25 % of the time
the underdog covered 43.75 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.88
the favorite won SU 76.47 % of the time
Iowa covered 37.50 % of the time
Ohio State covered 62.50 % of the time
Ohio State covered 62.50 % of the time at home
Ohio State covered 62.50 % of the time as home favorites
The problem for Iowa in this spot of course is that they are only half a team. They have one of the best defensive units in the country but they also have one of the least productive offenses.
Here they go up against one of the most potent offenses in the land and there’s just no way they can keep up and exchange points with the Buckeyes. In fact, Once Ohio State puts 14 points on the board this game is likely over.
But can Iowa cover the number?
If you go back over the last 5 years and you gave Iowa +30 points in every game they played they would have gone 61-1 against the spread. The only game they lost by more than 30 was the Big 10 Championship to Michigan last year. By the way, that game was 14-3 at the half.
Iowa has only given up 30 points total to another team once in the last 3 years and again, same game, the Big 10 title game last year. The Iowa defense this year may very well be the best of the last 5 years.
Ohio State wins this game. They may very well hang 50+ On the board by the time all is said and done. But that usually happens in the 2nd half after they have worn the opponent out. We’d be surprised if they jumped all over Iowa right out of the gate.
Our model has Ohio State winning 18-7. Using only the data from the last 4 games for each team, our model has it 25-9 Ohio State. So yeah, Iowa isn’t going to score. But the model suggests Iowa has a chance to keep Ohio State under 30. If Iowa manages a TD and a FG, then keeping them under 40 gets the cover, and so on.
We like our chances early with Iowa so we’re going to play this game as follows. (plug your nose).
Iowa +18 1st half 2/3 unit
Iowa +30 For the full game 1/3 unit