#5 Clemson will host #14 Syracuse in a huge ACC matchup this week that has implications both in the ACC as well as nationally. Both teams are undefeated with Clemson favored by -13.5 at home and a current total of 49.5 at GTBets.
These two teams have played every year since 2013 with Clemson holding an 8-1 series edge. In that time frame Syracuse has had two teams with a winning record. All of the other teams were 5 wins or less.
Yet those 5 wins or less teams gave Clemson fits, beating them straight up in 2017 and playing them close in a handful more, including last years 17-14 loss.
Here’s a look.
Head to Head
10/15/2021 Clemson 17 -13.0 at Syracuse 14
10/24/2020 Syracuse 21 +47.5 at Clemson 47
9/14/2019 Clemson 41 -27.5 at Syracuse 6
9/29/2018 Syracuse 23 +24.5 at Clemson 27
10/13/2017 Clemson 24 -24.0 at Syracuse 27
11/ 5/2016 Syracuse 0 +28.0 at Clemson 54
11/14/2015 Clemson 37 -30.5 at Syracuse 27
10/25/2014 Syracuse 6 +14.5 at Clemson 16
10/ 5/2013 Clemson 49 -14.0 at Syracuse 14
1/ 1/1996 Syracuse 41 + 2.0 vs Clemson 0
average outcome:
Syracuse 17.9 Clemson 31.2
margin = 13.30
time-weighted average outcome:
Syracuse 16.0 Clemson 33.4
margin = 17.43
average result when the home team is Clemson
Syracuse 12.5 Clemson 36.0
margin = 23.50
average result when the home team is Syracuse
Clemson 33.6 Syracuse 17.6
margin = -16.00
20.00 % of games went Over
25.00 % went Over at Clemson
average total points per game = 49.10
time-weighted average total = 49.36
the home team covered 44.44 % of the time
the road team covered 55.56 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -3.83
the favorite covered 30.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 70.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -9.25
the favorite won SU 80.00 % of the time
Syracuse covered 70.00 % of the time
Clemson covered 30.00 % of the time
Clemson covered 25.00 % of the time at home
Clemson covered 25.00 % of the time as home favorites
| syr | 50 | 19 | 12.5 | 19.8 | 0.1 | |
| cle | 13- | 21 | 10.9 | 15.9 | 1.8 |
We used the above chart in our last article this week, the Kansas State vs. TCU game and we’ll do so again here. It simply shows some key stats to get a quick snapshot of this game.
The first column is the game line. Then in blue we have the predicted score from our model. Next is offensive yards per point followed by defensive yards per point. Finally, the rushing yards per attempt differential.
You can see the score prediction favores Syracuse getting +13.5. As do the yards per point numbers with Syracuse having the edge offensively but Syracuse having the edge defensively.
In fact Syracuse ranks 5th of all the teams in action this weekend in terms of yards per point defensively (19.8) and Clemson ranks 4th offensively using the same stat (10.8).
The yards per rush attempt differential favors Clemson significantly with a number of +1.8 to Syracuse’s 0.1. The team with the higher differential is more likely to control the flow of the game.
Our Pick
Clemson is the better team here. We know that just from historical recruiting. They are always going to get the better talent. But the better talent still has to show up and execute.
That historically better talent and the perception the betting public has of Clemson in general over the last several years is why this line is -13.5 (opened -14.5 in spots). It’s not -13.5 based on what has taken place on the field this year.
You can see in the chart above the score prediction shows an even game as do the yards per point numbers. Clemson has played the more difficult schedule, but not by much. By 3 or 4 points actually. Clemson also has a larger than normal home field edge. But even at up to a TD for home field there would still be some value left at +13.5.
The number looks like it will hit +14 or better So hold off a bit and watch the board if you are able and try to get +14 or better.
Syracuse +13.5