Syracuse at Clemson ACC Football Pick ATS – 10-22

syracuse at clemson cfb pick
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#5 Clemson will host #14 Syracuse in a huge ACC matchup this week that has implications both in the ACC as well as nationally. Both teams are undefeated with Clemson favored by -13.5 at home and a current total of 49.5 at GTBets.

These two teams have played every year since 2013 with Clemson holding an 8-1 series edge. In that time frame Syracuse has had two teams with a winning record. All of the other teams were 5 wins or less.

Yet those 5 wins or less teams gave Clemson fits, beating them straight up in 2017 and playing them close in a handful more, including last years 17-14 loss.

Here’s a look.

Head to Head

10/15/2021  Clemson                  17  -13.0  at Syracuse                 14
10/24/2020  Syracuse                 21  +47.5  at Clemson                  47
 9/14/2019  Clemson                  41  -27.5  at Syracuse                  6
 9/29/2018  Syracuse                 23  +24.5  at Clemson                  27
10/13/2017  Clemson                  24  -24.0  at Syracuse                 27
11/ 5/2016  Syracuse                  0  +28.0  at Clemson                  54
11/14/2015  Clemson                  37  -30.5  at Syracuse                 27
10/25/2014  Syracuse                  6  +14.5  at Clemson                  16
10/ 5/2013  Clemson                  49  -14.0  at Syracuse                 14
 1/ 1/1996  Syracuse                 41  + 2.0  vs Clemson                   0
   average outcome:
     Syracuse                17.9  Clemson                 31.2
     margin =  13.30
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Syracuse                16.0  Clemson                 33.4
     margin =  17.43
   average result when the home team is Clemson                
     Syracuse                12.5  Clemson                 36.0
     margin =  23.50
   average result when the home team is Syracuse               
     Clemson                 33.6  Syracuse                17.6
     margin = -16.00
    20.00 % of games went Over
    25.00 % went Over at Clemson                
   average total points per game =  49.10
   time-weighted average total   =  49.36
   the home team covered  44.44 % of the time
   the road team covered  55.56 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.83
   the favorite  covered  30.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  70.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -9.25
   the favorite won SU    80.00 % of the time
   Syracuse                covered  70.00 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  30.00 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  25.00 % of the time at home
   Clemson                 covered  25.00 % of the time as home favorites
syr 50 19 12.5 19.8 0.1
cle 13- 21 10.9 15.9 1.8


We used the above chart in our last article this week, the Kansas State vs. TCU game and we’ll do so again here. It simply shows some key stats to get a quick snapshot of this game.

The first column is the game line. Then in blue we have the predicted score from our model. Next is offensive yards per point followed by defensive yards per point. Finally, the rushing yards per attempt differential.

You can see the score prediction favores Syracuse getting +13.5. As do the yards per point numbers with Syracuse having the edge offensively but Syracuse having the edge defensively.

In fact Syracuse ranks 5th of all the teams in action this weekend in terms of yards per point defensively (19.8) and Clemson ranks 4th offensively using the same stat (10.8).

The yards per rush attempt differential favors Clemson significantly with a number of +1.8 to Syracuse’s 0.1. The team with the higher differential is more likely to control the flow of the game.

Our Pick

Clemson is the better team here. We know that just from historical recruiting. They are always going to get the better talent. But the better talent still has to show up and execute.

That historically better talent and the perception the betting public has of Clemson in general over the last several years is why this line is -13.5 (opened -14.5 in spots). It’s not -13.5 based on what has taken place on the field this year.

You can see in the chart above the score prediction shows an even game as do the yards per point numbers. Clemson has played the more difficult schedule, but not by much. By 3 or 4 points actually. Clemson also has a larger than normal home field edge. But even at up to a TD for home field there would still be some value left at +13.5.

The number looks like it will hit +14 or better So hold off a bit and watch the board if you are able and try to get +14 or better.

Syracuse +13.5


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