Kansas at Baylor Big 12 CFB Pick ATS – 10-22

kansas at baylor cfb pick
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Baylor will host Kansas in Big 12 action this week and while both of these teams are likely out of the running in the conference and certainly the national picture the game still holds plenty of intrigue. Baylor is favored by 10 with a total of 58.

The story of this game and the reason for the line move is that Baylor gets QB Blake Shapen back this week while Kansas will again be without QB Jalon Daniels. More on that below but first let’s take a look at the head to head.

Head to Head

 9/18/2021  Baylor                   45  -17.0  at Kansas                    7
 9/26/2020  Kansas                   14  +17.5  at Baylor                   47
11/30/2019  Baylor                   61  -14.0  at Kansas                    6
 9/22/2018  Kansas                    7  + 7.5  at Baylor                   26
11/ 4/2017  Baylor                   38  - 7.5  at Kansas                    9
10/15/2016  Kansas                    7  +34.5  at Baylor                   49
10/10/2015  Baylor                   66  -45.0  at Kansas                    7
11/ 1/2014  Kansas                   14  +35.5  at Baylor                   60
10/26/2013  Baylor                   59  -35.0  at Kansas                   14
11/ 3/2012  Kansas                   14  +17.0  at Baylor                   41
11/12/2011  Baylor                   31  -20.0  at Kansas                   30
10/ 2/2010  Kansas                    7  + 9.5  at Baylor                   55
10/13/2007  Baylor                   10  +23.5  at Kansas                   58
10/21/2006  Kansas                   35  + 3.0  at Baylor                   36
10/18/2003  Baylor                   21  +18.5  at Kansas                   28
10/ 5/2002  Kansas                   32  + 3.5  at Baylor                   35
11/ 6/1999  Baylor                   10  +14.0  at Kansas                   45
10/10/1998  Kansas                   24  + 6.0  at Baylor                   31

Every year in college football there’s a team or two we latch onto that starts the year somewhat under the radar. A team that historically has not won but this year has a combination of the ball bouncing their way along with better than usual talent and or coaching. Such is the case with Kansas this year.

If you gave me the stats we like to use to evaluate a team for Kansas and didn’t tell me who the team was, I’d say hey, this is a pretty good football team. If you then gave me the stats for their opponent, again, without mentioning the team and then told me that team was favored by 10 over the other, I’d take the +10 in a heartbeat.

Last week Kansas was in a bad spot against an Oklahoma team desperate for a win. But unlike Kansas teams of the past, this one hung around and competed for the full game.

Yes, there’s a QB issue here. Kansas without theirs and Baylor getting theirs back. But so often the markets overreact to QB situations. In college football, with a few exceptions, the QB position is the most overrated on the field.

But in this case Kansas QB Jason Bean was once the starter. He played last week as well as against TCU. Kansas won’t lose this game because of the guy behind center. There’s 11 guys on each side of the ball and this is a pretty good team that has no quit in them.

Baylor lost to West Virginia last week. Enough said.

Lastly, as we mentioned last week as well, when a team is beaten like a drum year after year by another team and they finally have a team that can compete, they have to take advantage of that because you just don’t know when that opportunity will arise again. Such is the case here. There are several veteran players on Kansas eager to turn the table on Baylor.

Kansas +10