Iowa will host in state rival Iowa State Saturday in a game scheduled to kick off at 4 PM EST. The Hawkeyes opened up as 3 point favorites and currently sit at -3.5. The total at betonline is 40.5, down from an opener of 41.5.
This rivalry more often than not produces close games. You can go back in time and look at years where Iowa State was terrible, winning only 2 or 3 games during the season, yet they showed up for this one, losing by 3 or even upsetting the Hawkeyes.
This year’s game presents somewhat of a challenge to handicappers due to the fact that there are so many new faces for the Cyclones. They return just 3 starters to the defense and 5 to the offense. They also lose star QB Brock Purdy to the NFL.
The Purdy Impact
You can’t expect to lose a QB like Purdy and not have it have a major impact. That wasn’t evident last week against SE Missouri State with the Cyclones winning 42-10 but figures to be evident this week against the legit defense of the Hawkeyes.
We’ll learn just how good of a coach Matt Campbell is going forward. He took over a losing program in 2016 and after an inaugural 3-9 season he won 7+ games every year since. It’s worth noting that he had Purdy in every one of those 7+ win seasons. With all of the new faces we’ll now see just how good of a recruiting job Campbell has done.
The Iowa Hawkeyes keep chugging along doing their thing. Head coach Kirk Ferentz wins 7+ games per year and goes to a bowl game with regularity. He’s been the head coach at Iowa since 1999 and has only had 4 losing seasons and two of those were 6-7 years.
Iowa Offense Anemic
Last week the Hawkeyes took the field and turned in one of the most pathetic offensive performances if not THE most pathetic in recent college football history. The Hawkeyes had just 166 yards of total offense, 57 on the ground, against South Dakota State. Fortunately the defense showed up. Iowa won 7-3 and those 7 points came by way of a field goal and two safeties!!
Here are the results from the last 20 years in this series.
9/11/2021 Iowa 27 + 5.0 at Iowa State 17 9/14/2019 Iowa 18 - 1.5 at Iowa State 17 9/ 8/2018 Iowa State 3 + 3.5 at Iowa 13 9/ 9/2017 Iowa 44 - 3.5 at Iowa State 41 9/10/2016 Iowa State 3 +15.5 at Iowa 42 9/12/2015 Iowa 31 - 3.0 at Iowa State 17 9/13/2014 Iowa State 20 +12.5 at Iowa 17 9/14/2013 Iowa 27 - 2.0 at Iowa State 21 9/ 8/2012 Iowa State 9 + 3.5 at Iowa 6 9/10/2011 Iowa 41 - 6.5 at Iowa State 44 9/11/2010 Iowa State 7 +13.5 at Iowa 35 9/12/2009 Iowa 35 - 6.0 at Iowa State 3 9/13/2008 Iowa State 5 +13.5 at Iowa 17 9/15/2007 Iowa 13 -14.0 at Iowa State 15 9/16/2006 Iowa State 17 +14.0 at Iowa 27 9/10/2005 Iowa 3 - 7.5 at Iowa State 23 9/11/2004 Iowa State 10 +23.0 at Iowa 17 9/13/2003 Iowa 40 - 4.0 at Iowa State 21 9/14/2002 Iowa State 36 + 4.0 at Iowa 31 11/24/2001 Iowa 14 - 4.0 at Iowa State 17 9/16/2000 Iowa State 24 - 2.5 at Iowa 14
Our Pick
While there’s been no shortage of close games in this series historically and recently, Iowa holds the edge in straight up wins. The Hawkeyes have won 7 straight in this series by an average score of 29-16 which is pretty close to the score of last year’s game, a 27-17 Iowa win.
Of note here is the fact that Iowa State not only lost 7 straight in the series but they also were unable to beat the Hawkeyes with Purdy behind center. Also of note is that only 2 of the last 6 games in this series were at Iowa. The last time was 2018, a 13-3 Iowa win. The other was 2016, a 42-3 Iowa win.
Iowa was booed at home last week. They have a legendary coach who produces results. They get to take on an Iowa State team with no Brock Purdy and a slew of new faces at key positions. We’d be shocked if the Iowa offense doesn’t show vast improvement this week and we expect the defense to be stout as always.
We’ll lay the -3.5 if we have to but we’re not crazy about the hook. We don’t buy points in college football, even on the 3. If the Cyclones couldn’t get it done against Iowa with some of the best teams they’ve ever had there’s no reason to expect that they’d get it done now.
We’ll also lean under.