Iowa State at Iowa College Football Score Prediction with Analysis – 9-10

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iowa state at iowa free college football pick
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Iowa will host in state rival Iowa State Saturday in a game scheduled to kick off at 4 PM EST. The Hawkeyes opened up as 3 point favorites and currently sit at -3.5. The total at betonline is 40.5, down from an opener of 41.5.

This rivalry more often than not produces close games. You can go back in time and look at years where Iowa State was terrible, winning only 2 or 3 games during the season, yet they showed up for this one, losing by 3 or even upsetting the Hawkeyes.

This year’s game presents somewhat of a challenge to handicappers due to the fact that there are so many new faces for the Cyclones. They return just 3 starters to the defense and 5 to the offense. They also lose star QB Brock Purdy to the NFL.

The Purdy Impact

You can’t expect to lose a QB like Purdy and not have it have a major impact. That wasn’t evident last week against SE Missouri State with the Cyclones winning 42-10 but figures to be evident this week against the legit defense of the Hawkeyes.

We’ll learn just how good of a coach Matt Campbell is going forward. He took over a losing program in 2016 and after an inaugural 3-9 season he won 7+ games every year since. It’s worth noting that he had Purdy in every one of those 7+ win seasons. With all of the new faces we’ll now see just how good of a recruiting job Campbell has done.

The Iowa Hawkeyes keep chugging along doing their thing. Head coach Kirk Ferentz wins 7+ games per year and goes to a bowl game with regularity. He’s been the head coach at Iowa since 1999 and has only had 4 losing seasons and two of those were 6-7 years.

Iowa Offense Anemic

Last week the Hawkeyes took the field and turned in one of the most pathetic offensive performances if not THE most pathetic in recent college football history. The Hawkeyes had just 166 yards of total offense, 57 on the ground, against South Dakota State. Fortunately the defense showed up. Iowa won 7-3 and those 7 points came by way of a field goal and two safeties!!

Here are the results from the last 20 years in this series.

 9/11/2021  Iowa                     27  + 5.0  at Iowa State               17
 9/14/2019  Iowa                     18  - 1.5  at Iowa State               17
 9/ 8/2018  Iowa State                3  + 3.5  at Iowa                     13
 9/ 9/2017  Iowa                     44  - 3.5  at Iowa State               41
 9/10/2016  Iowa State                3  +15.5  at Iowa                     42
 9/12/2015  Iowa                     31  - 3.0  at Iowa State               17
 9/13/2014  Iowa State               20  +12.5  at Iowa                     17
 9/14/2013  Iowa                     27  - 2.0  at Iowa State               21
 9/ 8/2012  Iowa State                9  + 3.5  at Iowa                      6
 9/10/2011  Iowa                     41  - 6.5  at Iowa State               44
 9/11/2010  Iowa State                7  +13.5  at Iowa                     35
 9/12/2009  Iowa                     35  - 6.0  at Iowa State                3
 9/13/2008  Iowa State                5  +13.5  at Iowa                     17
 9/15/2007  Iowa                     13  -14.0  at Iowa State               15
 9/16/2006  Iowa State               17  +14.0  at Iowa                     27
 9/10/2005  Iowa                      3  - 7.5  at Iowa State               23
 9/11/2004  Iowa State               10  +23.0  at Iowa                     17
 9/13/2003  Iowa                     40  - 4.0  at Iowa State               21
 9/14/2002  Iowa State               36  + 4.0  at Iowa                     31
11/24/2001  Iowa                     14  - 4.0  at Iowa State               17
 9/16/2000  Iowa State               24  - 2.5  at Iowa                     14

 

Our Pick

While there’s been no shortage of close games in this series historically and recently, Iowa holds the edge in straight up wins. The Hawkeyes have won 7 straight in this series by an average score of 29-16 which is pretty close to the score of last year’s game, a 27-17 Iowa win.

Of note here is the fact that Iowa State not only lost 7 straight in the series but they also were unable to beat the Hawkeyes with Purdy behind center. Also of note is that only 2 of the last 6 games in this series were at Iowa. The last time was 2018, a 13-3 Iowa win. The other was 2016, a 42-3 Iowa win.

Iowa was booed at home last week. They have a legendary coach who produces results. They get to take on an Iowa State team with no Brock Purdy and a slew of new faces at key positions. We’d be shocked if the Iowa offense doesn’t show vast improvement this week and we expect the defense to be stout as always.

We’ll lay the -3.5 if we have to but we’re not crazy about the hook. We don’t buy points in college football, even on the 3. If the Cyclones couldn’t get it done against Iowa with some of the best teams they’ve ever had there’s no reason to expect that they’d get it done now.

We’ll also lean under.

IOWA -3.5 (wait for possible 3’s to show up!)

Lean UNDER 40.5

Predicted Score Iowa 24 Iowa State 10

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