Kansas State at TCU Big 12 CFB Pick – 10-22

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kansas state at tcu cfb pick
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Though it starts sat 8 pm est. the first game on the rotation this week is a good one as #17 Kansas State visits #8 TCU. TCU is a -3.5 point favorite currently with a total of 55 at GTBets sportsbook.

These two teams have played every year since 2012. But prior to that there were only a handful of meetings, a few in the 80’s and one in 1922. So, not exactly a series with a rich history. Since 2012, Kansas State holds a 6-4 series edge and has won 3 straight.

Head to Head

10/30/2021  T.C.U.                   12  + 3.5  at Kansas State             31
10/10/2020  Kansas State             21  + 9.5  at T.C.U.                   14
10/19/2019  T.C.U.                   17  - 4.0  at Kansas State             24
11/ 3/2018  Kansas State             13  +10.0  at T.C.U.                   14
10/14/2017  T.C.U.                   26  - 7.5  at Kansas State              6
12/ 3/2016  Kansas State             30  + 3.5  at T.C.U.                    6
10/10/2015  T.C.U.                   52  -10.0  at Kansas State             45
11/ 8/2014  Kansas State             20  + 6.5  at T.C.U.                   41
11/16/2013  T.C.U.                   31  +11.0  at Kansas State             33
11/10/2012  Kansas State             23  - 6.5  at T.C.U.                   10
  
   average outcome:
     Kansas State            24.6  T.C.U.                  22.3
     margin =  -2.30
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Kansas State            23.4  T.C.U.                  18.8
     margin =  -4.57
  
   average result when the home team is T.C.U.                 
     Kansas State            21.4  T.C.U.                  17.0
     margin =  -4.40
  
   average result when the home team is Kansas State           
     T.C.U.                  27.6  Kansas State            27.8
     margin =   0.20
  
    30.00 % of games went Over
    20.00 % went Over at T.C.U.                 
  
   average total points per game =  46.90
   time-weighted average total   =  42.14
  
   the home team covered  40.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -3.70
  
   the favorite  covered  40.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  60.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.70
  
   the favorite won SU    70.00 % of the time
  
   Kansas State            covered  70.00 % of the time
   T.C.U.                  covered  30.00 % of the time
  
   T.C.U.                  covered  20.00 % of the time at home
   T.C.U.                  covered  25.00 % of the time as home favorites

As you can see not only does Kansas State hold a 6-4 edge in the series but they are also a 70% play against the spread.

kanst 55- 25 14.7 18.6 1.5
tcu 3- 26 11.7 14.8 2.9

 

Above is a simple chart we use to get a snapshot of every game on the board. It’s a starting point which shows us strengths and weaknesses at a glance and allows us to see which games we want to dig into further as potential plays for the week.

The first column is the current line. Next we have the score prediction from our model. Next is the offensive yards per point number. Then the defensive yards per point number. Finally, we have the rushing yards per attempt differential. Bold signifies an edge.

Since these teams have played the same strength of schedule we can use yards per point to make a line. Subtracting the offensive yards per point number from the defensive number for Kansas State gives us a +3.9 for Kansas State. Doing the same for TCU gives us a +3.1 for the Horned Frogs.

So the difference between the two is almost a point. Factor in home field edge for TCU and you have TCU by around a field goal. What do you know, right about the same as the oddsmakers!

Those numbers show us that the Kansas State defense gets the edge over TCU but the opposite is true offensively.

The final column is the rushing yards per attempt differential and the 2.9 number of TCU ranks 3rd in the nation behind only Alabama and Ohio State. Kansas State is no slouch either with a number of 1.5 which has them tied with a few other teams at #10.

That chart, giving a quick snapshot of the game is enough to tell you that when a couple of books opened this game TCU -6, you wanted to be grabbing the points. However, when the game settles in at TCU -3.5, it becomes less enticing.

Something else that always needs to be considered when handicapping a college football game is the situation. Situational handicapping is huge in college football.

In this instance, we have a TCU team that has been beaten by Kansas State 3 consecutive years in a row. This means most of the key veteran talent on the Horned Frogs has endured those losses. No player wants go to through his college career having never beaten a team they play every year.

It’s a triple revenge spot for TCU and that’s huge. In the previous years, TCU had 5 and 6 win teams. Yet 2 of the 3 games were decided by a TD or less. Here, they have their best team of the last 4 years and actually one of their best teams in many years. That alone is enough to keep us off Kansas State at the current number.

In fact, if the number were to dip below -3, we’d start to strongly consider TCU here as we think they win this game.

That’s just a quick look at how we approach the card each week and how we look at each game. In this particular game, at the current number, it’s a pass for us. This is a numbers game. The “right” side is depends on the number and it’s quite possible to have value on both sides of a game throughout the week as the numbers change!

Good luck if you play this game. Should be a good one to watch.