Louisville at Clemson ACC Football Free Pick ATS – 11-12

louisville at clemson cfb pick
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Clemson will host Louisville in ACC college football action this Saturday in a game that kicks off at 3:30 PM est. The Tigers are favored by -7 with a current posted total of 52.

These two teams have a short history. In 7 meetings starting in 2014, Clemson is 7-0. The first 3 games in the series were all decided by 6 points or less. Last years game was a 6 point game. 2017-2019 were all blowouts.

Clemson is cruising along at 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play and likely headed to an ACC Title game against North Carolina.

Louisville sits at 3-3 in conference play and 6-3 overall. So the Cards are playing for a better bowl game at this point.

Here’s a look at their head to head history.

Head to Head

11/ 6/2021  Clemson                  30  - 4.0  at Louisville               24
10/19/2019  Clemson                  45  -24.5  at Louisville               10
11/ 3/2018  Louisville               16  +39.0  at Clemson                  77
 9/16/2017  Clemson                  47  - 3.0  at Louisville               21
10/ 1/2016  Louisville               36  - 1.0  at Clemson                  42
 9/17/2015  Clemson                  20  - 5.0  at Louisville               17
10/11/2014  Louisville               17  + 9.5  at Clemson                  23
   average outcome:
     Louisville              20.1  Clemson                 40.6
     margin =  20.43
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Louisville              19.9  Clemson                 43.2
     margin =  23.33
   average result when the home team is Clemson                
     Louisville              23.0  Clemson                 47.3
     margin =  24.33
   average result when the home team is Louisville             
     Clemson                 35.5  Louisville              18.0
     margin = -17.50
    57.14 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Clemson                
   average total points per game =  60.71
   time-weighted average total   =  63.11
   the home team covered  42.86 % of the time
   the road team covered  57.14 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.14
   the favorite  covered  57.14 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  42.86 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  6.43
   the favorite won SU    85.71 % of the time
   Louisville              covered  28.57 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  71.43 % of the time
   Clemson                 covered  66.67 % of the time at home
   Clemson                 covered  50.00 % of the time as home favorites

The feeling here is that there is some line value here going against Clemson. It’s simply a matter of Louisville being better than the market thinks they are and Clemson not being as good as the market thinks.

Louisville has suffered from inconsistency this year. They lost to Boston College of all teams. Against common opponents with Clemson they are 1-3 to Clemson’s 4-0. At the same time though, they have some nice wins as well as a tight game against Florida State.

Clemson may be 8-1 but they have had some narrow escapes. Wake Forest took them to OT and Syracuse woulda coulda shoulda beat them at home. Then Notre Dame beat them 35-14 last week. Clemson is good. Not great.

Statistically these two are even and that’s against a schedule strength that’s the same. Here’s a quick little chart we often include in write ups.

prediction off ypp def ypp rypa-dif
LOU 52 21 14 17.7 1.3
CLE 7 24 11.9 14.5 0.9

Here you see the game line, the score prediction from our model, offensive and defensive yards per point and the rushing yards per attempt differential.

You can see the Cards actually have an edge in a couple of categories above (in bold). In fact when we run this game using several different time frame parameters through our model Louisville covers the +7 spot every time.

We’d like this play a lot more if Clemson didn’t lose to Notre Dame last week. They’re going to want a better showing this week. But at the same time, there’s no urgency. Neither team really needs the game.

This is just a play based on the numbers which suggest this has the potential to be a good football game making the +7 attractive.


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