Clemson will host Louisville in ACC college football action this Saturday in a game that kicks off at 3:30 PM est. The Tigers are favored by -7 with a current posted total of 52.
These two teams have a short history. In 7 meetings starting in 2014, Clemson is 7-0. The first 3 games in the series were all decided by 6 points or less. Last years game was a 6 point game. 2017-2019 were all blowouts.
Clemson is cruising along at 8-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play and likely headed to an ACC Title game against North Carolina.
Louisville sits at 3-3 in conference play and 6-3 overall. So the Cards are playing for a better bowl game at this point.
Here’s a look at their head to head history.
Head to Head
11/ 6/2021 Clemson 30 - 4.0 at Louisville 24
10/19/2019 Clemson 45 -24.5 at Louisville 10
11/ 3/2018 Louisville 16 +39.0 at Clemson 77
9/16/2017 Clemson 47 - 3.0 at Louisville 21
10/ 1/2016 Louisville 36 - 1.0 at Clemson 42
9/17/2015 Clemson 20 - 5.0 at Louisville 17
10/11/2014 Louisville 17 + 9.5 at Clemson 23
average outcome:
Louisville 20.1 Clemson 40.6
margin = 20.43
time-weighted average outcome:
Louisville 19.9 Clemson 43.2
margin = 23.33
average result when the home team is Clemson
Louisville 23.0 Clemson 47.3
margin = 24.33
average result when the home team is Louisville
Clemson 35.5 Louisville 18.0
margin = -17.50
57.14 % of games went Over
66.67 % went Over at Clemson
average total points per game = 60.71
time-weighted average total = 63.11
the home team covered 42.86 % of the time
the road team covered 57.14 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.14
the favorite covered 57.14 % of the time
the underdog covered 42.86 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 6.43
the favorite won SU 85.71 % of the time
Louisville covered 28.57 % of the time
Clemson covered 71.43 % of the time
Clemson covered 66.67 % of the time at home
Clemson covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
The feeling here is that there is some line value here going against Clemson. It’s simply a matter of Louisville being better than the market thinks they are and Clemson not being as good as the market thinks.
Louisville has suffered from inconsistency this year. They lost to Boston College of all teams. Against common opponents with Clemson they are 1-3 to Clemson’s 4-0. At the same time though, they have some nice wins as well as a tight game against Florida State.
Clemson may be 8-1 but they have had some narrow escapes. Wake Forest took them to OT and Syracuse woulda coulda shoulda beat them at home. Then Notre Dame beat them 35-14 last week. Clemson is good. Not great.
Statistically these two are even and that’s against a schedule strength that’s the same. Here’s a quick little chart we often include in write ups.
| prediction | off ypp | def ypp | rypa-dif | ||
| LOU | 52 | 21 | 14 | 17.7 | 1.3 |
| CLE | 7 | 24 | 11.9 | 14.5 | 0.9 |
Here you see the game line, the score prediction from our model, offensive and defensive yards per point and the rushing yards per attempt differential.
You can see the Cards actually have an edge in a couple of categories above (in bold). In fact when we run this game using several different time frame parameters through our model Louisville covers the +7 spot every time.
We’d like this play a lot more if Clemson didn’t lose to Notre Dame last week. They’re going to want a better showing this week. But at the same time, there’s no urgency. Neither team really needs the game.
This is just a play based on the numbers which suggest this has the potential to be a good football game making the +7 attractive.