Purdue at Illinois Big 10 Football Pick ATS – 11-12

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purdue at illinois cfb pick
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Illinois will host Purdue in a crucial Big 10 matchup on Saturday with kickoff set for 12 noon EST. The Illini are favored by 6.5 with a current posted total of 44.5. Note that the game opened Illinois -4 at Circa Las Vegas.

This game is huge for both teams. Illinois is in the thick of things in the Big 10 West division with record of 4-2. No less than 4 teams sit right behind them at 3-3. The Illini have Michigan on deck and finish up at Northwestern. There’s obviously no room for error.

Purdue sits at 5-4 and in need of one more win to become bowl eligible. After Illinois they have games remaining against Northwestern and Indiana.

Historically speaking this series goes back to 1892 and is tied 45-45 with an average score of 18-18. Can’t get much more even that that!

In more recent times, going back to 2010, Purdue holds an 8-4 edge. They have won the last two and 5 of the last 6.

Here’s a look at the series going back to 1990.

Head to Head

 9/25/2021  Illinois                  9  +11.0  at Purdue                   13
10/31/2020  Purdue                   31  - 7.0  at Illinois                 24
10/26/2019  Illinois                 24  + 9.5  at Purdue                    6
10/13/2018  Purdue                   46  -10.0  at Illinois                  7
11/ 4/2017  Illinois                 10  +14.0  at Purdue                   29
10/ 8/2016  Purdue                   34  + 9.0  at Illinois                 31
11/ 7/2015  Illinois                 48  - 4.0  at Purdue                   14
10/ 4/2014  Purdue                   38  + 9.0  at Illinois                 27
11/23/2013  Illinois                 20  - 6.5  at Purdue                   16
11/17/2012  Purdue                   20  - 6.0  at Illinois                 17
10/22/2011  Illinois                 14  - 4.0  at Purdue                   21
10/30/2010  Purdue                   10  +17.0  at Illinois                 44
10/24/2009  Illinois                 14  +11.0  at Purdue                   24
11/11/2006  Purdue                   42  - 1.0  at Illinois                 31
11/12/2005  Illinois                  3  +23.0  at Purdue                   37
 9/25/2004  Purdue                   38  -18.5  at Illinois                 30
10/ 4/2003  Illinois                 10  +14.0  at Purdue                   43
10/12/2002  Purdue                   31  - 3.0  at Illinois                 38
11/ 3/2001  Illinois                 38  + 3.0  at Purdue                   13
10/24/1998  Illinois                  9  +24.0  at Purdue                   42
10/25/1997  Purdue                   48  -12.5  at Illinois                  3
10/ 1/1994  Purdue                   22  +17.0  at Illinois                 16
10/ 2/1993  Illinois                 28  + 5.0  at Purdue                   10
11/ 7/1992  Purdue                   17  + 2.5  at Illinois                 20
11/ 9/1991  Illinois                 41  - 6.5  at Purdue                   14
10/13/1990  Purdue                    0  +18.5  at Illinois                 34
  
   average outcome:
     Purdue                  25.3  Illinois                22.7
     margin =  -2.65
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Purdue                  24.4  Illinois                19.6
     margin =  -4.87
  
   average result when the home team is Illinois               
     Purdue                  29.0  Illinois                24.8
     margin =  -4.23
  
   average result when the home team is Purdue                 
     Illinois                20.6  Purdue                  21.7
     margin =   1.08
  
    47.37 % of games went Over
    66.67 % went Over at Illinois               
    (since        2001 )
  
   average total points per game =  48.04
   time-weighted average total   =  44.01
  
   the home team covered  48.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  52.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -5.98
  
   the favorite  covered  48.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  52.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.82
  
   the favorite won SU    69.23 % of the time
  
   Purdue                  covered  48.00 % of the time
   Illinois                covered  52.00 % of the time
  
   Illinois                covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Illinois                covered  50.00 % of the time as home favorites

This week we’ll get to see if Illinois is a pretender or a contender. Way back on September 2nd they lost to Indiana. They responded with a 24-3 home win over Virginia. If the Illini are for real and are to be taken even a little bit seriously they’ll bounce back after last weeks disappointing showing and will win this game and they’ll do convincingly.

On paper they are the superior team. They rank 2nd in the nation of all teams in action this week in yards per point defensively. Purdue is 90th. They rank 22nd of all teams in action this week in yards per rush attempt differential at +1.2. Purdue ranks 78th with a negative differential of -0.5.

When we run the game through our model using 3 different time frame parameters, full season data, last 4 games and last 7 games it’s an across the board sweep for the Illini as you’ll see below.

Purdue                    44.5          10           
Illinois                  -6.5          23 full season data
  
Purdue                    44.5          11           
Illinois                  -6.5          26 last 4
  
Purdue                    44.5           7           
Illinois                  -6.5          25 last 7

If the statistical superiority isn’t enough, the fact that it’s the last home game of the year for Illinois along with it being a double revenge spot should push this one over the edge.

We’ve been high on this Illinois team from the get go this season. We knew their defense would play a key role in their success and that unit has lived up to it’s potential. We think they continue on in that role this week as Illinois wins and covers this game.

Illinois -6.5