Illinois will host Purdue in a crucial Big 10 matchup on Saturday with kickoff set for 12 noon EST. The Illini are favored by 6.5 with a current posted total of 44.5. Note that the game opened Illinois -4 at Circa Las Vegas.
This game is huge for both teams. Illinois is in the thick of things in the Big 10 West division with record of 4-2. No less than 4 teams sit right behind them at 3-3. The Illini have Michigan on deck and finish up at Northwestern. There’s obviously no room for error.
Purdue sits at 5-4 and in need of one more win to become bowl eligible. After Illinois they have games remaining against Northwestern and Indiana.
Historically speaking this series goes back to 1892 and is tied 45-45 with an average score of 18-18. Can’t get much more even that that!
In more recent times, going back to 2010, Purdue holds an 8-4 edge. They have won the last two and 5 of the last 6.
Here’s a look at the series going back to 1990.
Head to Head
9/25/2021 Illinois 9 +11.0 at Purdue 13
10/31/2020 Purdue 31 - 7.0 at Illinois 24
10/26/2019 Illinois 24 + 9.5 at Purdue 6
10/13/2018 Purdue 46 -10.0 at Illinois 7
11/ 4/2017 Illinois 10 +14.0 at Purdue 29
10/ 8/2016 Purdue 34 + 9.0 at Illinois 31
11/ 7/2015 Illinois 48 - 4.0 at Purdue 14
10/ 4/2014 Purdue 38 + 9.0 at Illinois 27
11/23/2013 Illinois 20 - 6.5 at Purdue 16
11/17/2012 Purdue 20 - 6.0 at Illinois 17
10/22/2011 Illinois 14 - 4.0 at Purdue 21
10/30/2010 Purdue 10 +17.0 at Illinois 44
10/24/2009 Illinois 14 +11.0 at Purdue 24
11/11/2006 Purdue 42 - 1.0 at Illinois 31
11/12/2005 Illinois 3 +23.0 at Purdue 37
9/25/2004 Purdue 38 -18.5 at Illinois 30
10/ 4/2003 Illinois 10 +14.0 at Purdue 43
10/12/2002 Purdue 31 - 3.0 at Illinois 38
11/ 3/2001 Illinois 38 + 3.0 at Purdue 13
10/24/1998 Illinois 9 +24.0 at Purdue 42
10/25/1997 Purdue 48 -12.5 at Illinois 3
10/ 1/1994 Purdue 22 +17.0 at Illinois 16
10/ 2/1993 Illinois 28 + 5.0 at Purdue 10
11/ 7/1992 Purdue 17 + 2.5 at Illinois 20
11/ 9/1991 Illinois 41 - 6.5 at Purdue 14
10/13/1990 Purdue 0 +18.5 at Illinois 34
average outcome:
Purdue 25.3 Illinois 22.7
margin = -2.65
time-weighted average outcome:
Purdue 24.4 Illinois 19.6
margin = -4.87
average result when the home team is Illinois
Purdue 29.0 Illinois 24.8
margin = -4.23
average result when the home team is Purdue
Illinois 20.6 Purdue 21.7
margin = 1.08
47.37 % of games went Over
66.67 % went Over at Illinois
(since 2001 )
average total points per game = 48.04
time-weighted average total = 44.01
the home team covered 48.00 % of the time
the road team covered 52.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -5.98
the favorite covered 48.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 52.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.82
the favorite won SU 69.23 % of the time
Purdue covered 48.00 % of the time
Illinois covered 52.00 % of the time
Illinois covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Illinois covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
This week we’ll get to see if Illinois is a pretender or a contender. Way back on September 2nd they lost to Indiana. They responded with a 24-3 home win over Virginia. If the Illini are for real and are to be taken even a little bit seriously they’ll bounce back after last weeks disappointing showing and will win this game and they’ll do convincingly.
On paper they are the superior team. They rank 2nd in the nation of all teams in action this week in yards per point defensively. Purdue is 90th. They rank 22nd of all teams in action this week in yards per rush attempt differential at +1.2. Purdue ranks 78th with a negative differential of -0.5.
When we run the game through our model using 3 different time frame parameters, full season data, last 4 games and last 7 games it’s an across the board sweep for the Illini as you’ll see below.
Purdue 44.5 10 Illinois -6.5 23 full season data Purdue 44.5 11 Illinois -6.5 26 last 4 Purdue 44.5 7 Illinois -6.5 25 last 7
If the statistical superiority isn’t enough, the fact that it’s the last home game of the year for Illinois along with it being a double revenge spot should push this one over the edge.
We’ve been high on this Illinois team from the get go this season. We knew their defense would play a key role in their success and that unit has lived up to it’s potential. We think they continue on in that role this week as Illinois wins and covers this game.