Penn State at Michigan CFB Pick – 10-15

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penn state at michigan cfb pick ats
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Huge game between two unbeatens takes place in Ann Arbor on Saturday as #5 Michigan hosts #10 Penn State. The Wolverines are currently -7 point favorites at GTBets with a total of 51.5.

There’s been no shortage of close games when these two hook up. Last year Michigan went into Happy Valley and came away with a 21-17 win. No doubt the Nittany Lions are looking for a little payback.

Since 2000 Michigan holds an 11-7 edge in the series with an average score of 24-22. However it needs to be noted that in that time span Michigan holds a 7-2 edge when the game is in Michigan with an average margin of 26-18.

Head to Head

11/13/2021  Michigan                 21  - 1.5  at Penn State               17
11/28/2020  Penn State               27  + 0.0  at Michigan                 17
10/19/2019  Michigan                 21  + 7.5  at Penn State               28
11/ 3/2018  Penn State                7  +13.0  at Michigan                 42
10/21/2017  Michigan                 13  + 9.5  at Penn State               42
 9/24/2016  Penn State               10  +17.5  at Michigan                 49
11/21/2015  Michigan                 28  - 3.5  at Penn State               16
10/11/2014  Penn State               13  + 1.0  at Michigan                 18
10/12/2013  Michigan                 40  - 2.5  at Penn State               43
10/30/2010  Michigan                 31  - 3.0  at Penn State               41
10/24/2009  Penn State               35  - 4.5  at Michigan                 10
10/18/2008  Michigan                 17  +24.5  at Penn State               46
 9/22/2007  Penn State                9  - 2.5  at Michigan                 14
10/14/2006  Michigan                 17  - 4.0  at Penn State               10
10/15/2005  Penn State               25  + 3.0  at Michigan                 27
10/12/2002  Penn State               24  + 4.5  at Michigan                 27
10/ 6/2001  Michigan                 20  - 8.5  at Penn State                0
11/11/2000  Penn State               11  +16.0  at Michigan                 33
11/13/1999  Michigan                 31  + 6.0  at Penn State               27
11/ 7/1998  Penn State                0  - 3.0  at Michigan                 27
11/ 8/1997  Michigan                 34  + 0.0  at Penn State                8
11/16/1996  Penn State               29  + 1.5  at Michigan                 17
11/18/1995  Michigan                 17  + 4.0  at Penn State               27
10/15/1994  Penn State               31  + 1.0  at Michigan                 24
10/16/1993  Michigan                 21  + 6.0  at Penn State               13
  
   average outcome:
     Penn State              21.6  Michigan                24.6
     margin =   3.08
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Penn State              21.6  Michigan                25.4
     margin =   3.74
  
   average result when the home team is Michigan               
     Penn State              18.4  Michigan                25.4
     margin =   7.00
  
   average result when the home team is Penn State             
     Michigan                23.9  Penn State              24.5
     margin =   0.54
  
    47.83 % of games went Over
    27.27 % went Over at Michigan               
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  46.20
   time-weighted average total   =  46.98
  
   the home team covered  44.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  56.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  0.36
  
   the favorite  covered  52.17 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  47.83 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.48
  
   the favorite won SU    65.22 % of the time
  
   Penn State              covered  44.00 % of the time
   Michigan                covered  56.00 % of the time
  
   Michigan                covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Michigan                covered  50.00 % of the time as home favorites

 

off ypp def ypp RY DIF YPP DIF
PENNST 12.9 23.1 1.9 10.2
MICH 10.7 21.8 2.8 11.1

 

Above is a simple quick snapshot of both teams offensive and defensive capabilities using yards per point as well as rushing yards differential. It simply shows that to date, these are to very good football teams on both sides of the ball. Against a similar schedule in terms of strength, these two have put up nearly identical numbers.

Our Pick

It’s also worth noting that neither team has played a tough schedule to date. Michigan started their year playing 3 of the worst teams in all of college football, Hawaii, UCONN and Colorado State. Their toughest opponent to date has been an Iowa team that is very good defensively but can’t score.

The Nittany Lions schedule has been just a point or two more difficult. They have beaten a couple of MAC teams along with Purdue, Auburn and Northwestern.

Our model has this game as close and more importantly low scoring. We have two very good running teams who are also very good defensively against the run.

We’re going to play this game under the total and we’re also going to grab the TD with Penn State as they look for some revenge for last years home loss.

UNDER 51.5

Penn State +7

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