LSU vs. Georgia – NCAAF SEC Championship Pick – 12-3

lsu at georgia sec championship pick
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#14 LSU Tigers (93) vs # Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)

Georgia I the top-ranked team in the nation and looks to lock up a CFP bid with a win in the SEC title game facing LSU, who they did not face this season. The Bulldogs are a big 18.5-point betting favorite in this game with the total sitting at 50.5.

Even with a big spread the public has been backing Georgia, as they opened as a 15-point favorite and as of Wednesday are an 17.5-point favorite at GTBets.

On the season LSU is 9-3 ATS with an O/U record of 6-6 and Georgia is 6-6 ATS with an O/U record of 4-7-1.

While these teams have not met since 2019 LSU has won four of the last five meetings including the last two. The last time these team faced off was in the 2019 SEC title game where LSU won big and they also won big against them in the 2011 SEC title game.

This SEC title game will be held at a neutral site at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Get Back on the Horse

Before last week LSU had a shot to make the CFP playoffs but they slipped up in their last game losing to a Texas A&M team that finished the season two games under .500.

The Tigers had only given up 10 points in two straight games before giving up 38 to Texas A&M in last week’s 38-23 loss.

In the second half of the season LSU beat two top 10 ranked teams in Alabama and Ole Miss and they look to make it a third time with a win over Georgia.

The Tigers rank 38th in the nation averaging 32.7 ppg and they have pretty good balance ranking 36th in the nation in rushing yards per game and 55th in passing yards per game.

To say that QB Jayden Daniels leads the Tigers offense would be an understatement, as he leads the team in both passing yards and rushing yards. He has passed for 2,566 yards with 15 TD and only 2 INT and rushed for 824 yards and 11 TD.

Daniels is a little banged up with an ankle injury and lead RB Josh Williams (481 yards 6 TD) has missed the last two games with an injury but listed as probable to face Georgia. The Tigers have four players that have at least 321 rushing yards.

Malik Nabers (726 yards 1 TD) leads a good WR corps and he has 198 yards in the last two games.

LSU’s offense has a tall task in this game facing a Georgia defense that is the top-ranked unit in the nation only giving up an average of 11.3 ppg. They have 22 sacks on the season and their run D ranks second in the nation only giving up an average of 85 rushing yards per game.

Make the Decision Easy

If Georgia loses to LSU the decision to keep the Bulldogs out of the CFP will be a tough decision but if they win it will be a simple one.

Not only does Georgia rank first in the nation in points against but they rank 11th putting up an average of 38.3 ppg.

Stetson Bennett (3,151 yards 16 TD 6 INT) ranks seventh in the country in QBR and while he has not put-up big numbers in the last two games, he has been solid. It helps that he is playing behind what may be the best offensive line in the nation that has not allowed a sack in the last five games.

The Bulldogs have four players with over 400 receiving yards and TE Brock Bowers and WR Ladd McConkey have combined for 1,251 yards and nine TD. UGA also has a great RB duo in Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards who have combined for 1,258 rushing yards and 15 TD.

Georgia’s offense will be up against an LSU defense that ranks 47th in the nation in pass defense and 42ndin run defense.

Our Pick

Both teams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games and have an Over record in five of their last six games overall.

LSU is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games facing Georgia and in the last nine games between these bitter SEC rivals the total has gone Over seven times.

Our model has Georgia winning this game by 13 to 18 points. So, a Georgia win but it’s right at the current line or less.

The Bulldogs weren’t able to extend margins against the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky and Missouri. Even Kent State would have covered if given +17.5.

Chalk LSU’s loss to Texas A&M last week up to the fact that they already had a spot in the title game. It’s an incredibly difficult spot mentally. The Tigers are a solid team and should be able to give Georgia all they can handle. We’ll take the very generous spot in this game for all the SEC marbles.

LSU +17.5

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