Virginia will host Miami Florida in ACC college football action Saturday with the Hurricanes favored by -2.5 on the road. The current total is 48.5 AT GTBets and the game kicks off at 12:30 pm EST.
Both teams are 3-4 overall while Miami is 1-2 in conference play and the Cavs are 1-3. We can’t necessarily count Miami out of the division race yet as stranger things have happened but they would certainly be long shots at this point.
But what makes college football exciting this time of year is that even when teams aren’t in contention in conference they are still fighting for their bowl game lives. Both of these teams are at 3 wins needing 3 more to qualify for a bowl and as is usually the case, there are no guarantees on either teams schedule the rest of the way. That makes this a big game for both.
Head to Head
9/30/2021 Virginia 30 + 3.5 at Miami 28
10/24/2020 Virginia 14 +14.0 at Miami 19
10/11/2019 Virginia 9 + 2.5 at Miami 17
10/13/2018 Miami 13 - 7.0 at Virginia 16
11/18/2017 Virginia 28 +20.0 at Miami 44
11/12/2016 Miami 34 -10.5 at Virginia 14
11/ 7/2015 Virginia 21 + 6.5 at Miami 27
11/22/2014 Miami 13 - 6.0 at Virginia 30
11/23/2013 Virginia 26 +20.0 at Miami 45
11/10/2012 Miami 40 + 1.5 at Virginia 41
10/27/2011 Virginia 28 +14.0 at Miami 21
10/30/2010 Miami 19 -15.0 at Virginia 24
11/ 7/2009 Virginia 17 +13.5 at Miami 52
11/ 1/2008 Miami 24 + 2.5 at Virginia 17
11/10/2007 Virginia 48 + 4.0 at Miami 0
11/18/2006 Miami 7 - 3.0 at Virginia 17
11/26/2005 Virginia 17 +18.5 at Miami 25
11/13/2004 Miami 31 + 3.5 at Virginia 21
12/27/1996 Virginia 21 + 3.5 ~@ Miami 31
average outcome:
Miami 25.8 Virginia 23.1
margin = -2.68
time-weighted average outcome:
Miami 24.7 Virginia 19.8
margin = -4.85
average result when the home team is Virginia
Miami 22.6 Virginia 22.5
margin = -0.13
average result when the home team is Miami
Virginia 23.8 Miami 27.8
margin = 4.00
42.11 % of games went Over
25.00 % went Over at Virginia
average total points per game = 48.89
time-weighted average total = 44.46
the home team covered 36.84 % of the time
the road team covered 63.16 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.95
the favorite covered 21.05 % of the time
the underdog covered 78.95 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -7.89
the favorite won SU 52.63 % of the time
Miami covered 36.84 % of the time
Virginia covered 63.16 % of the time
Virginia covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Virginia covered 80.00 % of the time as home underdogs
| MIA | Line 2 |
Prediction 18 |
offypp 18.7 |
defypp 13.3 |
rypa-dif -0.4 |
| VA | 48- | 20 | 23.3 | 15.1 | 0.2 |
If you’ve read some of our other write ups recently you’re familiar with the chart above. It shows the current line, our score prediction from the model, the yards per point numbers for offense and defense and the rushing yards per attempt differential.
No real significant edges to speak of using the chart. It basically shows a toss up game. Either team getting a field goal is the way we would lean here.
But the better play here would be the total. We’ve put each teams offensive yards per point numbers in red. The higher the offensive yards per point number is, the less efficient their offense is.
To put it in perspective, there are 94 teams in action this weekend. Virginia’s offense ranks 93rd using yards per point. Miami’s ranks 83rd.
You can also see the score prediction from our model comes in a full 10 points below the current total. The total opened 46.5 and has gone up a couple of points which gives us some added value as well.
Last years game was a 30-28 final. The three previous years saw total points of 33, 26 and 19. So as far as recent history goes, last years game was the exception, not the rule.
We’ll play this game under the total and hope these offenses continue their ineptness.