Miami Florida at Virginia Free CFB Pick – 10-29

46
miami at virginia cfb pick
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Virginia will host Miami Florida in ACC college football action Saturday with the Hurricanes favored by -2.5 on the road. The current total is 48.5 AT GTBets and the game kicks off at 12:30 pm EST.

Both teams are 3-4 overall while Miami is 1-2 in conference play and the Cavs are 1-3. We can’t necessarily count Miami out of the division race yet as stranger things have happened but they would certainly be long shots at this point.

But what makes college football exciting this time of year is that even when teams aren’t in contention in conference they are still fighting for their bowl game lives. Both of these teams are at 3 wins needing 3 more to qualify for a bowl and as is usually the case, there are no guarantees on either teams schedule the rest of the way. That makes this a big game for both.

Head to Head

9/30/2021  Virginia                 30  + 3.5  at Miami                    28
10/24/2020  Virginia                 14  +14.0  at Miami                    19
10/11/2019  Virginia                  9  + 2.5  at Miami                    17
10/13/2018  Miami                    13  - 7.0  at Virginia                 16
11/18/2017  Virginia                 28  +20.0  at Miami                    44
11/12/2016  Miami                    34  -10.5  at Virginia                 14
11/ 7/2015  Virginia                 21  + 6.5  at Miami                    27
11/22/2014  Miami                    13  - 6.0  at Virginia                 30
11/23/2013  Virginia                 26  +20.0  at Miami                    45
11/10/2012  Miami                    40  + 1.5  at Virginia                 41
10/27/2011  Virginia                 28  +14.0  at Miami                    21
10/30/2010  Miami                    19  -15.0  at Virginia                 24
11/ 7/2009  Virginia                 17  +13.5  at Miami                    52
11/ 1/2008  Miami                    24  + 2.5  at Virginia                 17
11/10/2007  Virginia                 48  + 4.0  at Miami                     0
11/18/2006  Miami                     7  - 3.0  at Virginia                 17
11/26/2005  Virginia                 17  +18.5  at Miami                    25
11/13/2004  Miami                    31  + 3.5  at Virginia                 21
12/27/1996  Virginia                 21  + 3.5  [email protected] Miami                    31
  
   average outcome:
     Miami                   25.8  Virginia                23.1
     margin =  -2.68
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Miami                   24.7  Virginia                19.8
     margin =  -4.85
  
   average result when the home team is Virginia               
     Miami                   22.6  Virginia                22.5
     margin =  -0.13
  
   average result when the home team is Miami                  
     Virginia                23.8  Miami                   27.8
     margin =   4.00
  
    42.11 % of games went Over
    25.00 % went Over at Virginia               
  
   average total points per game =  48.89
   time-weighted average total   =  44.46
  
   the home team covered  36.84 % of the time
   the road team covered  63.16 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.95
  
   the favorite  covered  21.05 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  78.95 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -7.89
  
   the favorite won SU    52.63 % of the time
  
   Miami                   covered  36.84 % of the time
   Virginia                covered  63.16 % of the time
  
   Virginia                covered  50.00 % of the time at home
   Virginia                covered  80.00 % of the time as home underdogs

 

MIA Line
2
Prediction
18
offypp
18.7
defypp
13.3
rypa-dif
-0.4
VA 48- 20 23.3 15.1  0.2

If you’ve read some of our other write ups recently you’re familiar with the chart above. It shows the current line, our score prediction from the model, the yards per point numbers for offense and defense and the rushing yards per attempt differential.

No real significant edges to speak of using the chart. It basically shows a toss up game. Either team getting a field goal is the way we would lean here.

But the better play here would be the total. We’ve put each teams offensive yards per point numbers in red. The higher the offensive yards per point number is, the less efficient their offense is.

To put it in perspective, there are 94 teams in action this weekend. Virginia’s offense ranks 93rd using yards per point. Miami’s ranks 83rd.

You can also see the score prediction from our model comes in a full 10 points below the current total. The total opened 46.5 and has gone up a couple of points which gives us some added value as well.

Last years game was a 30-28 final. The three previous years saw total points of 33, 26 and 19. So as far as recent history goes, last years game was the exception, not the rule.

We’ll play this game under the total and hope these offenses continue their ineptness.

UNDER 48.5