Pitt at North Carolina CFB Free Pick – 10-29

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PITT AT NC CFB PICK ATS
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North Carolina will host Pitt in ACC college football action this Saturday. The Tarheels sit alone atop of the ACC Coastal division at 3-0 and 6-1 overall. Pitt is 1-2 in conference play and 4-3 overall. The Tarheels are favored by -3 with a total of 64.5 at GTBets.

While North Carolina has it’s sights set on winning the division and playing in the ACC title game, Pitt still has plenty at stake. Specifically, a Bowl birth. With 4 wins, they’ll need two more and there’s no guaranteed wins on their dance card the rest of the way.

Head to Head

11/11/2021  North Carolina           23  + 6.0  at Pittsburgh               30
11/14/2019  North Carolina           27  + 4.0  at Pittsburgh               34
 9/22/2018  Pittsburgh               35  - 3.0  at North Carolina           38
11/ 9/2017  North Carolina           34  +10.0  at Pittsburgh               31
 9/24/2016  Pittsburgh               36  + 7.0  at North Carolina           37
10/29/2015  North Carolina           26  - 3.0  at Pittsburgh               19
11/15/2014  Pittsburgh               35  + 2.5  at North Carolina           40
11/16/2013  North Carolina           34  + 0.0  at Pittsburgh               27
12/26/2009  Pittsburgh               19  - 2.5  vs North Carolina           17
11/ 4/2000  North Carolina           20  + 8.0  at Pittsburgh               17
10/10/1998  Pittsburgh               10  + 7.0  at North Carolina           29
  
   average outcome:
     Pittsburgh              26.6  North Carolina          29.5
     margin =   2.91
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Pittsburgh              31.5  North Carolina          30.6
     margin =  -0.94
  
   average result when the home team is North Carolina         
     Pittsburgh              29.0  North Carolina          36.0
     margin =   7.00
  
   average result when the home team is Pittsburgh             
     North Carolina          27.3  Pittsburgh              26.3
     margin =  -1.00
  
    60.00 % of games went Over
   100.00 % went Over at North Carolina         
    (since        2000 )
  
   average total points per game =  56.18
   time-weighted average total   =  62.10
  
   the home team covered  50.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -1.60
  
   the favorite  covered  50.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  50.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -2.10
  
   the favorite won SU    70.00 % of the time
  
   Pittsburgh              covered  27.27 % of the time
   North Carolina          covered  72.73 % of the time
  
   North Carolina          covered  75.00 % of the time at home
   North Carolina          covered  66.67 % of the time as home favorites

Since 2000 North Carolina is 7-3 against Pitt but the average margin was 1 point. 3 points at home.

Our numbers suggest the line is generally correct here. Pitt’s rushing yards per attempt differential is better than the Tarheels by a yard which is significant. Any time that’s the case, the underdog having the better number, you have yourself a “live dog”.

That and our model calling for a 37-37 final score have us leaning towards Pitt +3 for sure here. But the total may be the better way to go with this one. A look at past results shows plenty of scores right around where our model has it.

These two can put points on the board and neither is a defensive power house. Last team with the ball wins? We’ll go over the current total of 64.

Pitt/NC OVER 64

LEAN PITT +3

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