North Carolina will host Pitt in ACC college football action this Saturday. The Tarheels sit alone atop of the ACC Coastal division at 3-0 and 6-1 overall. Pitt is 1-2 in conference play and 4-3 overall. The Tarheels are favored by -3 with a total of 64.5 at GTBets.
While North Carolina has it’s sights set on winning the division and playing in the ACC title game, Pitt still has plenty at stake. Specifically, a Bowl birth. With 4 wins, they’ll need two more and there’s no guaranteed wins on their dance card the rest of the way.
Head to Head
11/11/2021 North Carolina 23 + 6.0 at Pittsburgh 30
11/14/2019 North Carolina 27 + 4.0 at Pittsburgh 34
9/22/2018 Pittsburgh 35 - 3.0 at North Carolina 38
11/ 9/2017 North Carolina 34 +10.0 at Pittsburgh 31
9/24/2016 Pittsburgh 36 + 7.0 at North Carolina 37
10/29/2015 North Carolina 26 - 3.0 at Pittsburgh 19
11/15/2014 Pittsburgh 35 + 2.5 at North Carolina 40
11/16/2013 North Carolina 34 + 0.0 at Pittsburgh 27
12/26/2009 Pittsburgh 19 - 2.5 vs North Carolina 17
11/ 4/2000 North Carolina 20 + 8.0 at Pittsburgh 17
10/10/1998 Pittsburgh 10 + 7.0 at North Carolina 29
average outcome:
Pittsburgh 26.6 North Carolina 29.5
margin = 2.91
time-weighted average outcome:
Pittsburgh 31.5 North Carolina 30.6
margin = -0.94
average result when the home team is North Carolina
Pittsburgh 29.0 North Carolina 36.0
margin = 7.00
average result when the home team is Pittsburgh
North Carolina 27.3 Pittsburgh 26.3
margin = -1.00
60.00 % of games went Over
100.00 % went Over at North Carolina
(since 2000 )
average total points per game = 56.18
time-weighted average total = 62.10
the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -1.60
the favorite covered 50.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 50.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -2.10
the favorite won SU 70.00 % of the time
Pittsburgh covered 27.27 % of the time
North Carolina covered 72.73 % of the time
North Carolina covered 75.00 % of the time at home
North Carolina covered 66.67 % of the time as home favorites
Since 2000 North Carolina is 7-3 against Pitt but the average margin was 1 point. 3 points at home.
Our numbers suggest the line is generally correct here. Pitt’s rushing yards per attempt differential is better than the Tarheels by a yard which is significant. Any time that’s the case, the underdog having the better number, you have yourself a “live dog”.
That and our model calling for a 37-37 final score have us leaning towards Pitt +3 for sure here. But the total may be the better way to go with this one. A look at past results shows plenty of scores right around where our model has it.
These two can put points on the board and neither is a defensive power house. Last team with the ball wins? We’ll go over the current total of 64.