Penn State will host Ohio State in a game that kicks off at 12 Noon EST on Saturday, October 29th. The Buckeyes are -15.5 point road favorites with a current total of 61 at GTBets sportsbook.
These two Big 10 East rivals face each other every year and often times the stakes are high. Such is the case this year as there are 3 teams bunched up at the top of the East standings. Those teams are Michigan and Ohio State who are both undefeated overall and in conference play and Penn State who is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the conference.
Since 2000 Ohio State is 17-5 against the Nittany Lions. Over the last 6 years Ohio State is 5-1 in the series and they have won 5 straight. The last Penn State win was at home in 2016, 24-21.
More importantly when you look at the last 6 years you’ll find that while Ohio State has won, Penn State has showed up and has had the talent to at least compete. Two of those Ohio State wins were by 1 point and the other 3 were decided by 9, 11 and 13.
Here’s a look at the head to head history going back to 1993.
Head To Head
10/30/2021 Penn State 24 +19.0 at Ohio State 33 10/31/2020 Ohio State 38 -12.0 at Penn State 25 11/23/2019 Penn State 17 +19.0 at Ohio State 28 9/29/2018 Ohio State 27 - 3.5 at Penn State 26 10/28/2017 Penn State 38 + 7.0 at Ohio State 39 10/22/2016 Ohio State 21 -19.5 at Penn State 24 10/17/2015 Penn State 10 +18.0 at Ohio State 38 10/25/2014 Ohio State 31 -14.0 at Penn State 24 10/26/2013 Penn State 14 +16.0 at Ohio State 63 10/27/2012 Ohio State 35 + 0.0 at Penn State 23 11/19/2011 Penn State 20 + 6.5 at Ohio State 14 11/13/2010 Penn State 14 +18.0 at Ohio State 38 11/ 7/2009 Ohio State 24 + 6.0 at Penn State 7 10/25/2008 Penn State 13 - 2.5 at Ohio State 6 10/27/2007 Ohio State 37 - 3.5 at Penn State 17 9/23/2006 Penn State 6 +17.0 at Ohio State 28 10/ 8/2005 Ohio State 10 - 3.0 at Penn State 17 10/30/2004 Penn State 10 + 5.5 at Ohio State 21 11/ 1/2003 Ohio State 21 - 7.5 at Penn State 20 10/26/2002 Penn State 7 + 4.5 at Ohio State 13 10/27/2001 Ohio State 27 - 8.0 at Penn State 29 9/23/2000 Penn State 6 +11.0 at Ohio State 45 10/16/1999 Ohio State 10 +11.5 at Penn State 23 10/ 3/1998 Penn State 9 +14.5 at Ohio State 28 10/11/1997 Ohio State 27 + 7.0 at Penn State 31 10/ 5/1996 Penn State 7 + 9.5 at Ohio State 38 10/ 7/1995 Ohio State 28 - 1.5 at Penn State 25 10/29/1994 Ohio State 14 +14.0 at Penn State 63 10/30/1993 Penn State 6 + 3.0 at Ohio State 24
So Penn State has been good but Ohio State has been better in recent history and well, that’s precisely they way it looks this year as well.
Once again we have a simple chart above showing the current line, yards per point on offense and defense and then the rushing yards per attempt differential.
Ohio State’s RYPA-Dif is #2 in the nation behind Michigan and just ahead of Georgia. Simply tremendous. Teams like that don’t lose many games.
But these two teams have played a schedule that has been fairly even in strength. The yards per point numbers show the Ohio State offense with the edge but the Penn State defense a few points better than the Buckeyes.
Lastly, our model’s score prediction suggest this game lands right around the same spot margin wise as the last 3 years, around 11 points. Which of course suggests Penn State may have a chance here at the very least to cover.
Last week the Buckeyes put up 54 points on a very good Iowa defense. It played out just as we suspected. Iowa was able to hang around for a half. They even scored first. But the Buckeyes poured it on in the 2nd half. Iowa has zero offense. So when your defense is on the field all day long against a powerhouse like Ohio State, you’ll eventually wear down.
The Penn State offense is much better then Iowa’s. It’s also better than Notre Dame’s, the only team to play the Buckeyes competitively all season. In fact, Penn State is better than Notre Dame on both sides of the ball.
We played Iowa last week in the 1st half knowing they’d likely wear down as the game wore on. We were right and cashed the ticket. We’re going to use the same strategy here in this game however we also like Penn State for the full game. Again, Penn State has an offense, they’re at home and they show up to play every year against the Buckeyes.
There are a few +16’s on the board. If you don’t have access to them it’s worth waiting to see if more show up. It’s likely. Maybe even higher but 16 for sure.