Ohio State at Penn State CFB Pick w/ analysis – 10-29

Penn State will host Ohio State in a game that kicks off at 12 Noon EST on Saturday, October 29th. The Buckeyes are -15.5 point road favorites with a current total of 61 at GTBets sportsbook.

These two Big 10 East rivals face each other every year and often times the stakes are high. Such is the case this year as there are 3 teams bunched up at the top of the East standings. Those teams are Michigan and Ohio State who are both undefeated overall and in conference play and Penn State who is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the conference.

Since 2000 Ohio State is 17-5 against the Nittany Lions. Over the last 6 years Ohio State is 5-1 in the series and they have won 5 straight. The last Penn State win was at home in 2016, 24-21.

More importantly when you look at the last 6 years you’ll find that while Ohio State has won, Penn State has showed up and has had the talent to at least compete. Two of those Ohio State wins were by 1 point and the other 3 were decided by 9, 11 and 13.

Here’s a look at the head to head history going back to 1993.

Head To Head

10/30/2021  Penn State               24  +19.0  at Ohio State               33
10/31/2020  Ohio State               38  -12.0  at Penn State               25
11/23/2019  Penn State               17  +19.0  at Ohio State               28
 9/29/2018  Ohio State               27  - 3.5  at Penn State               26
10/28/2017  Penn State               38  + 7.0  at Ohio State               39
10/22/2016  Ohio State               21  -19.5  at Penn State               24
10/17/2015  Penn State               10  +18.0  at Ohio State               38
10/25/2014  Ohio State               31  -14.0  at Penn State               24
10/26/2013  Penn State               14  +16.0  at Ohio State               63
10/27/2012  Ohio State               35  + 0.0  at Penn State               23
11/19/2011  Penn State               20  + 6.5  at Ohio State               14
11/13/2010  Penn State               14  +18.0  at Ohio State               38
11/ 7/2009  Ohio State               24  + 6.0  at Penn State                7
10/25/2008  Penn State               13  - 2.5  at Ohio State                6
10/27/2007  Ohio State               37  - 3.5  at Penn State               17
 9/23/2006  Penn State                6  +17.0  at Ohio State               28
10/ 8/2005  Ohio State               10  - 3.0  at Penn State               17
10/30/2004  Penn State               10  + 5.5  at Ohio State               21
11/ 1/2003  Ohio State               21  - 7.5  at Penn State               20
10/26/2002  Penn State                7  + 4.5  at Ohio State               13
10/27/2001  Ohio State               27  - 8.0  at Penn State               29
 9/23/2000  Penn State                6  +11.0  at Ohio State               45
10/16/1999  Ohio State               10  +11.5  at Penn State               23
10/ 3/1998  Penn State                9  +14.5  at Ohio State               28
10/11/1997  Ohio State               27  + 7.0  at Penn State               31
10/ 5/1996  Penn State                7  + 9.5  at Ohio State               38
10/ 7/1995  Ohio State               28  - 1.5  at Penn State               25
10/29/1994  Ohio State               14  +14.0  at Penn State               63
10/30/1993  Penn State                6  + 3.0  at Ohio State               24

So Penn State has been good but Ohio State has been better in recent history and well, that’s precisely they way it looks this year as well.

Once again we have a simple chart above showing the current line, yards per point on offense and defense and then the rushing yards per attempt differential.

Ohio State’s RYPA-Dif is #2 in the nation behind Michigan and just ahead of Georgia. Simply tremendous. Teams like that don’t lose many games.

But these two teams have played a schedule that has been fairly even in strength. The yards per point numbers show the Ohio State offense with the edge but the Penn State defense a few points better than the Buckeyes.

Lastly, our model’s score prediction suggest this game lands right around the same spot margin wise as the last 3 years, around 11 points. Which of course suggests Penn State may have a chance here at the very least to cover.

Our Pick

Last week the Buckeyes put up 54 points on a very good Iowa defense. It played out just as we suspected. Iowa was able to hang around for a half. They even scored first. But the Buckeyes poured it on in the 2nd half. Iowa has zero offense. So when your defense is on the field all day long against a powerhouse like Ohio State, you’ll eventually wear down.

The Penn State offense is much better then Iowa’s. It’s also better than Notre Dame’s, the only team to play the Buckeyes competitively all season. In fact, Penn State is better than Notre Dame on both sides of the ball.

We played Iowa last week in the 1st half knowing they’d likely wear down as the game wore on. We were right and cashed the ticket. We’re going to use the same strategy here in this game however we also like Penn State for the full game. Again, Penn State has an offense, they’re at home and they show up to play every year against the Buckeyes.

There are a few +16’s on the board. If you don’t have access to them it’s worth waiting to see if more show up. It’s likely. Maybe even higher but 16 for sure.

Penn State +5.5 1st quarter

Penn State +10 -130 1st half

Penn State +16 for the game