Huge game between two unbeatens takes place in Ann Arbor on Saturday as #5 Michigan hosts #10 Penn State. The Wolverines are currently -7 point favorites at GTBets with a total of 51.5.
There’s been no shortage of close games when these two hook up. Last year Michigan went into Happy Valley and came away with a 21-17 win. No doubt the Nittany Lions are looking for a little payback.
Since 2000 Michigan holds an 11-7 edge in the series with an average score of 24-22. However it needs to be noted that in that time span Michigan holds a 7-2 edge when the game is in Michigan with an average margin of 26-18.
Head to Head
11/13/2021 Michigan 21 - 1.5 at Penn State 17
11/28/2020 Penn State 27 + 0.0 at Michigan 17
10/19/2019 Michigan 21 + 7.5 at Penn State 28
11/ 3/2018 Penn State 7 +13.0 at Michigan 42
10/21/2017 Michigan 13 + 9.5 at Penn State 42
9/24/2016 Penn State 10 +17.5 at Michigan 49
11/21/2015 Michigan 28 - 3.5 at Penn State 16
10/11/2014 Penn State 13 + 1.0 at Michigan 18
10/12/2013 Michigan 40 - 2.5 at Penn State 43
10/30/2010 Michigan 31 - 3.0 at Penn State 41
10/24/2009 Penn State 35 - 4.5 at Michigan 10
10/18/2008 Michigan 17 +24.5 at Penn State 46
9/22/2007 Penn State 9 - 2.5 at Michigan 14
10/14/2006 Michigan 17 - 4.0 at Penn State 10
10/15/2005 Penn State 25 + 3.0 at Michigan 27
10/12/2002 Penn State 24 + 4.5 at Michigan 27
10/ 6/2001 Michigan 20 - 8.5 at Penn State 0
11/11/2000 Penn State 11 +16.0 at Michigan 33
11/13/1999 Michigan 31 + 6.0 at Penn State 27
11/ 7/1998 Penn State 0 - 3.0 at Michigan 27
11/ 8/1997 Michigan 34 + 0.0 at Penn State 8
11/16/1996 Penn State 29 + 1.5 at Michigan 17
11/18/1995 Michigan 17 + 4.0 at Penn State 27
10/15/1994 Penn State 31 + 1.0 at Michigan 24
10/16/1993 Michigan 21 + 6.0 at Penn State 13
average outcome:
Penn State 21.6 Michigan 24.6
margin = 3.08
time-weighted average outcome:
Penn State 21.6 Michigan 25.4
margin = 3.74
average result when the home team is Michigan
Penn State 18.4 Michigan 25.4
margin = 7.00
average result when the home team is Penn State
Michigan 23.9 Penn State 24.5
margin = 0.54
47.83 % of games went Over
27.27 % went Over at Michigan
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 46.20
time-weighted average total = 46.98
the home team covered 44.00 % of the time
the road team covered 56.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 0.36
the favorite covered 52.17 % of the time
the underdog covered 47.83 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.48
the favorite won SU 65.22 % of the time
Penn State covered 44.00 % of the time
Michigan covered 56.00 % of the time
Michigan covered 50.00 % of the time at home
Michigan covered 50.00 % of the time as home favorites
| off ypp | def ypp | RY DIF | YPP DIF | |
| PENNST | 12.9 | 23.1 | 1.9 | 10.2 |
| MICH | 10.7 | 21.8 | 2.8 | 11.1 |
Above is a simple quick snapshot of both teams offensive and defensive capabilities using yards per point as well as rushing yards differential. It simply shows that to date, these are to very good football teams on both sides of the ball. Against a similar schedule in terms of strength, these two have put up nearly identical numbers.
Our Pick
It’s also worth noting that neither team has played a tough schedule to date. Michigan started their year playing 3 of the worst teams in all of college football, Hawaii, UCONN and Colorado State. Their toughest opponent to date has been an Iowa team that is very good defensively but can’t score.
The Nittany Lions schedule has been just a point or two more difficult. They have beaten a couple of MAC teams along with Purdue, Auburn and Northwestern.
Our model has this game as close and more importantly low scoring. We have two very good running teams who are also very good defensively against the run.
We’re going to play this game under the total and we’re also going to grab the TD with Penn State as they look for some revenge for last years home loss.