Baylor will host TCU in Big 12 college football action this Saturday in a game scheduled to kick off at 12 noon EST. The Horned Frogs are -2.5 point road favorites with a total of 57.5 in this huge matchup with college football playoff implications.
For TCU it’s really quite simple. They control their own destiny. They sit at 10-0 overall and 7-0 in conference play. If they beat Baylor this week, Iowa State in their season finale and then win the Big 12 Title game, they’ll be in the college football playoffs. No easy task, but it’s within reach.
Baylor sits at 6-5 overall and 4-3 in conference play but they won’t be without motivation. They’ll be playing to improve their bowl game positioning, a shot at revenge for losing the last two in this series and it’s their last home game of the year.
Since 2006 these two have played 14 times with TCU holding a 10-4 edge. TCU has won 6 of the last 7 in the series and that includes winning the last two.
Head to Head
11/ 6/2021 Baylor 28 - 7.0 at T.C.U. 30
10/31/2020 T.C.U. 33 - 2.5 at Baylor 23
11/ 9/2019 Baylor 29 - 2.5 at T.C.U. 23
11/17/2018 T.C.U. 16 - 1.0 at Baylor 9
11/24/2017 Baylor 22 +24.5 at T.C.U. 45
11/ 5/2016 T.C.U. 62 + 7.0 at Baylor 22
11/27/2015 Baylor 21 - 1.5 at T.C.U. 28
10/11/2014 T.C.U. 58 + 8.0 at Baylor 61
11/30/2013 Baylor 41 -12.5 at T.C.U. 38
10/13/2012 T.C.U. 49 + 7.0 at Baylor 21
9/ 2/2011 T.C.U. 48 - 3.5 at Baylor 50
9/18/2010 Baylor 10 +21.0 at T.C.U. 45
9/ 1/2007 Baylor 0 +21.5 at T.C.U. 27
9/ 3/2006 T.C.U. 17 - 6.5 at Baylor 7
10/28/1995 T.C.U. 24 +10.0 at Baylor 27
10/ 1/1994 Baylor 42 - 3.0 at T.C.U. 18
10/23/1993 T.C.U. 38 +13.5 at Baylor 13
10/10/1992 Baylor 41 - 6.5 at T.C.U. 20
10/26/1991 T.C.U. 9 +12.0 at Baylor 26
10/27/1990 Baylor 27 + 3.0 at T.C.U. 21
average outcome:
T.C.U. 32.5 Baylor 26.0
margin = -6.45
time-weighted average outcome:
T.C.U. 33.3 Baylor 24.8
margin = -8.46
average result when the home team is Baylor
T.C.U. 35.4 Baylor 25.9
margin = -9.50
average result when the home team is T.C.U.
Baylor 26.1 T.C.U. 29.5
margin = 3.40
66.67 % of games went Over
71.43 % went Over at Baylor
(since 2006 )
average total points per game = 58.45
time-weighted average total = 58.07
the home team covered 35.00 % of the time
the road team covered 65.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -7.10
the favorite covered 45.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 55.00 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -4.75
the favorite won SU 65.00 % of the time
T.C.U. covered 65.00 % of the time
Baylor covered 35.00 % of the time
Baylor covered 20.00 % of the time at home
Baylor covered 25.00 % of the time as home underdogs
Here’s a look at a few score predictions from our model using full season data, last 4 games data and last 7 games data.
T.C.U. -2.5 33 Baylor 0.0 31 T.C.U. -2.5 27 Baylor 0.0 25 T.C.U. -2.5 40 Baylor 0.0 31 last 7 games
As you can see the model has it tight, particularly when taking the entire season into account. However when only using data from the last 7 games the TCU margin increases suggesting better current form.
It’s not easy for college football teams to get “up” two weeks in a row for huge games let alone 4 consecutive weeks which, including last weeks game, is precisely what TCU will have to do to make it to the college football playoffs.
But when it’s your year, the bounces seem to go your way. We see it every year in college football. This year, everything has gone TCU’s way and we think it continues here. We think the Horned Frogs have a legit shot to be playing in the Big 12 Title game with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win. But one step at a time.