TCU at Baylor Big 12 CFB Pick ATS – 11-19

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TCU at Baylor CFB Pick
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Baylor will host TCU in Big 12 college football action this Saturday in a game scheduled to kick off at 12 noon EST. The Horned Frogs are -2.5 point road favorites with a total of 57.5 in this huge matchup with college football playoff implications.

For TCU it’s really quite simple. They control their own destiny. They sit at 10-0 overall and 7-0 in conference play. If they beat Baylor this week, Iowa State in their season finale and then win the Big 12 Title game, they’ll be in the college football playoffs. No easy task, but it’s within reach.

Baylor sits at 6-5 overall and 4-3 in conference play but they won’t be without motivation. They’ll be playing to improve their bowl game positioning, a shot at revenge for losing the last two in this series and it’s their last home game of the year.

Since 2006 these two have played 14 times with TCU holding a 10-4 edge. TCU has won 6 of the last 7 in the series and that includes winning the last two.

Head to Head

11/ 6/2021  Baylor                   28  - 7.0  at T.C.U.                   30
10/31/2020  T.C.U.                   33  - 2.5  at Baylor                   23
11/ 9/2019  Baylor                   29  - 2.5  at T.C.U.                   23
11/17/2018  T.C.U.                   16  - 1.0  at Baylor                    9
11/24/2017  Baylor                   22  +24.5  at T.C.U.                   45
11/ 5/2016  T.C.U.                   62  + 7.0  at Baylor                   22
11/27/2015  Baylor                   21  - 1.5  at T.C.U.                   28
10/11/2014  T.C.U.                   58  + 8.0  at Baylor                   61
11/30/2013  Baylor                   41  -12.5  at T.C.U.                   38
10/13/2012  T.C.U.                   49  + 7.0  at Baylor                   21
 9/ 2/2011  T.C.U.                   48  - 3.5  at Baylor                   50
 9/18/2010  Baylor                   10  +21.0  at T.C.U.                   45
 9/ 1/2007  Baylor                    0  +21.5  at T.C.U.                   27
 9/ 3/2006  T.C.U.                   17  - 6.5  at Baylor                    7
10/28/1995  T.C.U.                   24  +10.0  at Baylor                   27
10/ 1/1994  Baylor                   42  - 3.0  at T.C.U.                   18
10/23/1993  T.C.U.                   38  +13.5  at Baylor                   13
10/10/1992  Baylor                   41  - 6.5  at T.C.U.                   20
10/26/1991  T.C.U.                    9  +12.0  at Baylor                   26
10/27/1990  Baylor                   27  + 3.0  at T.C.U.                   21
  
   average outcome:
     T.C.U.                  32.5  Baylor                  26.0
     margin =  -6.45
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     T.C.U.                  33.3  Baylor                  24.8
     margin =  -8.46
  
   average result when the home team is Baylor                 
     T.C.U.                  35.4  Baylor                  25.9
     margin =  -9.50
  
   average result when the home team is T.C.U.                 
     Baylor                  26.1  T.C.U.                  29.5
     margin =   3.40
  
    66.67 % of games went Over
    71.43 % went Over at Baylor                 
    (since        2006 )
  
   average total points per game =  58.45
   time-weighted average total   =  58.07
  
   the home team covered  35.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  65.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -7.10
  
   the favorite  covered  45.00 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  55.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -4.75
  
   the favorite won SU    65.00 % of the time
  
   T.C.U.                  covered  65.00 % of the time
   Baylor                  covered  35.00 % of the time
  
   Baylor                  covered  20.00 % of the time at home
   Baylor                  covered  25.00 % of the time as home underdogs

Here’s a look at a few score predictions from our model using full season data, last 4 games data and last 7 games data.

T.C.U.                    -2.5          33           
Baylor                     0.0          31
  
T.C.U.                    -2.5          27           
Baylor                     0.0          25
  
T.C.U.                    -2.5          40           
Baylor                     0.0          31 last 7 games

As you can see the model has it tight, particularly when taking the entire season into account. However when only using data from the last 7 games the TCU margin increases suggesting better current form.

It’s not easy for college football teams to get “up” two weeks in a row for huge games let alone 4 consecutive weeks which, including last weeks game, is precisely what TCU will have to do to make it to the college football playoffs.

But when it’s your year, the bounces seem to go your way. We see it every year in college football. This year, everything has gone TCU’s way and we think it continues here. We think the Horned Frogs have a legit shot to be playing in the Big 12 Title game with a chance to go to the playoffs with a win. But one step at a time.

TCU MONELY LINE -130