UCLA will host USC on Saturday in a huge PAC-12 game that is scheduled to kick off at 8 pm EST. The Trojans are currently -2.5 point road favorites with a total of 77. The game has huge PAC 12 Title and college football playoff implications.
Both of these teams are alive for a spot in the PAC 12 Title game. For USC, they control their own destiny. Win and they are in. UCLA would need a little help but first things first. Beat USC.
The Trojans have even more to play for as they are alive and well for a college football playoff spot should they win out and win the PAC 12 Title.
Since 2000 USC has had the upper hand in this series with a 16-6 series edge. USC has won 5 of the last 7 as well however last year it was UCLA on top by a wide margin, 62-33.
Here’s a look at the head to head meetings.
Head to Head
11/20/2021 UCLA 62 - 3.5 at Southern Cal 33
12/12/2020 Southern Cal 43 - 3.0 at UCLA 38
11/23/2019 UCLA 35 +13.5 at Southern Cal 52
11/17/2018 Southern Cal 27 - 3.0 at UCLA 34
11/18/2017 UCLA 23 +14.5 at Southern Cal 28
11/19/2016 Southern Cal 36 -13.5 at UCLA 14
11/28/2015 UCLA 21 + 3.0 at Southern Cal 40
11/22/2014 Southern Cal 20 + 4.0 at UCLA 38
11/30/2013 UCLA 35 + 3.5 at Southern Cal 14
11/17/2012 Southern Cal 28 - 4.0 at UCLA 38
11/26/2011 UCLA 0 +16.0 at Southern Cal 50
12/ 4/2010 Southern Cal 28 - 6.5 at UCLA 14
11/28/2009 UCLA 7 +13.0 at Southern Cal 28
12/ 6/2008 Southern Cal 28 -33.0 at UCLA 7
12/ 1/2007 UCLA 7 +16.0 at Southern Cal 24
12/ 2/2006 Southern Cal 9 -12.5 at UCLA 13
12/ 3/2005 UCLA 19 +24.5 at Southern Cal 66
12/ 4/2004 Southern Cal 29 -19.5 at UCLA 24
11/22/2003 UCLA 22 +21.0 at Southern Cal 47
11/23/2002 Southern Cal 52 - 3.0 at UCLA 21
11/17/2001 UCLA 0 - 4.0 at Southern Cal 27
11/18/2000 Southern Cal 38 + 3.5 at UCLA 35
11/20/1999 UCLA 7 + 7.0 at Southern Cal 17
11/21/1998 Southern Cal 17 + 5.5 at UCLA 34
11/22/1997 UCLA 31 -11.5 at Southern Cal 24
11/23/1996 Southern Cal 41 - 3.0 at UCLA 48
11/18/1995 UCLA 24 + 7.0 at Southern Cal 20
11/19/1994 Southern Cal 19 - 5.5 at UCLA 31
11/20/1993 UCLA 27 + 2.5 at Southern Cal 21
11/21/1992 Southern Cal 37 - 7.0 at UCLA 38
11/23/1991 UCLA 24 - 6.0 at Southern Cal 21
11/17/1990 Southern Cal 45 - 5.0 at UCLA 42
average outcome:
Southern Cal 31.5 UCLA 25.4
margin = -6.13
time-weighted average outcome:
Southern Cal 35.9 UCLA 36.1
margin = 0.23
average result when the home team is UCLA
Southern Cal 31.1 UCLA 29.3
margin = -1.75
average result when the home team is Southern Cal
UCLA 21.5 Southern Cal 32.0
margin = 10.50
40.74 % of games went Over
46.15 % went Over at UCLA
(since 1995 )
average total points per game = 56.94
time-weighted average total = 71.96
the home team covered 68.75 % of the time
the road team covered 31.25 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 4.03
the favorite covered 46.88 % of the time
the underdog covered 53.13 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = -0.44
the favorite won SU 65.63 % of the time
Southern Cal covered 50.00 % of the time
UCLA covered 50.00 % of the time
UCLA covered 68.75 % of the time at home
UCLA covered 69.23 % of the time as home underdogs
Here is the way our model sees this game….
Southern Cal 0.0 39 UCLA 0.0 35 full season data Southern Cal 0.0 40 UCLA 0.0 47 last 4 games data Southern Cal 0.0 39 UCLA 0.0 39 last 7 games data
This time of year the model run we pUt the most faith in is the last 7 games. It filters out those early season games against cupcakes and shows current form.
You might question why USC is favored here. But last weeks UCLA loss to Arizona may have a lot to do with that. The Bruins looked terrible at times.
But when you look at USC’s body of work this year it’s even less impressive. They only have one loss but they had trouble putting away some mediocre teams this. We certainly wouldn’t group them with the nations elite.
UCLA’s results have been more impressive than USC’s. Unlike USC, UCLA was able to extend some margins against the teams they should have and they also own some solid wins over other ranked opponents.
Where the Bruins really excelled this year is with their running game. Their yards per rush attempt differential is +2.5. That ranks them #3 of all the teams in action this weekend with the only two teams ahead of them being Ohio State (+2.6) and Michigan (+3).
Sure, USC has the revenge motive going this week for last seasons beatdown but we don’t think that’s enough. We think the Bruins are the better team and they end USC’s playoff hopes here.