USC at UCLA CFB Pick ATS – 11-19

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USC at UCLA CFB Pick
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UCLA will host USC on Saturday in a huge PAC-12 game that is scheduled to kick off at 8 pm EST. The Trojans are currently -2.5 point road favorites with a total of 77. The game has huge PAC 12 Title and college football playoff implications.

Both of these teams are alive for a spot in the PAC 12 Title game. For USC, they control their own destiny. Win and they are in. UCLA would need a little help but first things first. Beat USC.

The Trojans have even more to play for as they are alive and well for a college football playoff spot should they win out and win the PAC 12 Title.

Since 2000 USC has had the upper hand in this series with a 16-6 series edge. USC has won 5 of the last 7 as well however last year it was UCLA on top by a wide margin, 62-33.

Here’s a look at the head to head meetings.

Head to Head

11/20/2021  UCLA                     62  - 3.5  at Southern Cal             33
12/12/2020  Southern Cal             43  - 3.0  at UCLA                     38
11/23/2019  UCLA                     35  +13.5  at Southern Cal             52
11/17/2018  Southern Cal             27  - 3.0  at UCLA                     34
11/18/2017  UCLA                     23  +14.5  at Southern Cal             28
11/19/2016  Southern Cal             36  -13.5  at UCLA                     14
11/28/2015  UCLA                     21  + 3.0  at Southern Cal             40
11/22/2014  Southern Cal             20  + 4.0  at UCLA                     38
11/30/2013  UCLA                     35  + 3.5  at Southern Cal             14
11/17/2012  Southern Cal             28  - 4.0  at UCLA                     38
11/26/2011  UCLA                      0  +16.0  at Southern Cal             50
12/ 4/2010  Southern Cal             28  - 6.5  at UCLA                     14
11/28/2009  UCLA                      7  +13.0  at Southern Cal             28
12/ 6/2008  Southern Cal             28  -33.0  at UCLA                      7
12/ 1/2007  UCLA                      7  +16.0  at Southern Cal             24
12/ 2/2006  Southern Cal              9  -12.5  at UCLA                     13
12/ 3/2005  UCLA                     19  +24.5  at Southern Cal             66
12/ 4/2004  Southern Cal             29  -19.5  at UCLA                     24
11/22/2003  UCLA                     22  +21.0  at Southern Cal             47
11/23/2002  Southern Cal             52  - 3.0  at UCLA                     21
11/17/2001  UCLA                      0  - 4.0  at Southern Cal             27
11/18/2000  Southern Cal             38  + 3.5  at UCLA                     35
11/20/1999  UCLA                      7  + 7.0  at Southern Cal             17
11/21/1998  Southern Cal             17  + 5.5  at UCLA                     34
11/22/1997  UCLA                     31  -11.5  at Southern Cal             24
11/23/1996  Southern Cal             41  - 3.0  at UCLA                     48
11/18/1995  UCLA                     24  + 7.0  at Southern Cal             20
11/19/1994  Southern Cal             19  - 5.5  at UCLA                     31
11/20/1993  UCLA                     27  + 2.5  at Southern Cal             21
11/21/1992  Southern Cal             37  - 7.0  at UCLA                     38
11/23/1991  UCLA                     24  - 6.0  at Southern Cal             21
11/17/1990  Southern Cal             45  - 5.0  at UCLA                     42
  
   average outcome:
     Southern Cal            31.5  UCLA                    25.4
     margin =  -6.13
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Southern Cal            35.9  UCLA                    36.1
     margin =   0.23
  
   average result when the home team is UCLA                   
     Southern Cal            31.1  UCLA                    29.3
     margin =  -1.75
  
   average result when the home team is Southern Cal           
     UCLA                    21.5  Southern Cal            32.0
     margin =  10.50
  
    40.74 % of games went Over
    46.15 % went Over at UCLA                   
    (since        1995 )
  
   average total points per game =  56.94
   time-weighted average total   =  71.96
  
   the home team covered  68.75 % of the time
   the road team covered  31.25 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  4.03
  
   the favorite  covered  46.88 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  53.13 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -0.44
  
   the favorite won SU    65.63 % of the time
  
   Southern Cal            covered  50.00 % of the time
   UCLA                    covered  50.00 % of the time
  
   UCLA                    covered  68.75 % of the time at home
   UCLA                    covered  69.23 % of the time as home underdogs

Here is the way our model sees this game….

Southern Cal               0.0          39           
UCLA                       0.0          35 full season data
  
Southern Cal               0.0          40           
UCLA                       0.0          47 last 4 games data
  
Southern Cal               0.0          39           
UCLA                       0.0          39 last 7 games data

This time of year the model run we pUt the most faith in is the last 7 games. It filters out those early season games against cupcakes and shows current form.

You might question why USC is favored here. But last weeks UCLA  loss to Arizona may have a lot to do with that. The Bruins looked terrible at times.

But when you look at USC’s body of work this year it’s even less impressive. They only have one loss but they had trouble putting away some mediocre teams this. We certainly wouldn’t group them with the nations elite.

UCLA’s results have been more impressive than USC’s. Unlike USC, UCLA was able to extend some margins against the teams they should have and they also own some solid wins over other ranked opponents.

Where the Bruins really excelled this year is with their running game. Their yards per rush attempt differential is +2.5. That ranks them #3 of all the teams in action this weekend with the only two teams ahead of them being Ohio State (+2.6) and Michigan (+3).

Sure, USC has the revenge motive going this week for last seasons beatdown but we don’t think that’s enough. We think the Bruins are the better team and they end USC’s playoff hopes here.

UCLA +2.5