Ohio State will host Wisconsin in Big 10 college football action on Saturday September 24th. Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm est. with Ohio State favored by 19 points. The total at betonline is 57, up from an opener of 55.
The Buckeyes got off to a slow start in their first game this year, trailing Notre Dame at the half 10-7 before two unanswered 2nd half TD’s put the game away, 21-10. Since then they have blown out Arkansas State 45-12 and Toledo 77-21.
But truthfully, the Wisconsin Badgers season hasn’t been all that different from the Buckeyes. They too blew out two cupcakes and struggled (and lost) to the only semi legitimate opponent they faced. Wisconsin beat Illinois State 38-0 and New Mexico State 66-7. Their loss came against Washington State, 17-14.
No Strangers Here
These two Big 10 teams are obviously very familiar with each other. Here’s a look at their head to head meetings going back to 2000.
12/ 7/2019 Wisconsin 21 +16.0 vs Ohio State 34 10/26/2019 Wisconsin 7 +14.5 at Ohio State 38 12/ 2/2017 Wisconsin 21 + 5.5 vs Ohio State 27 10/15/2016 Ohio State 30 -10.5 at Wisconsin 23 12/ 6/2014 Wisconsin 0 - 4.0 vs Ohio State 59 9/28/2013 Wisconsin 24 + 6.5 at Ohio State 31 11/17/2012 Ohio State 21 + 2.5 at Wisconsin 14 10/29/2011 Wisconsin 29 - 7.5 at Ohio State 33 10/16/2010 Ohio State 18 - 4.0 at Wisconsin 31 10/10/2009 Wisconsin 13 +16.0 at Ohio State 31 10/ 4/2008 Ohio State 20 - 1.5 at Wisconsin 17 11/ 3/2007 Wisconsin 17 +16.5 at Ohio State 38 10/ 9/2004 Wisconsin 24 + 4.0 at Ohio State 13 10/11/2003 Ohio State 10 - 3.0 at Wisconsin 17 10/19/2002 Ohio State 19 - 6.5 at Wisconsin 14 10/13/2001 Wisconsin 20 +11.0 at Ohio State 17 10/ 7/2000 Ohio State 23 - 1.5 at Wisconsin 7
When you look at the history over the last 20 years you’ll find that Ohio State has come out on top more times than not. 13-4 to be exact. They have also won the last 8 in a row and 12 of the last 13.
But what you’ll also find is that there have been very few blowouts. The worst was the 2014 Big 10 Title game won by Ohio State 59-0. 38-7 was another one in 2019. But of the 17 games since 2000, 9 of them have been decided by a TD or less.
In fact, if you gave Wisconsin 19 points (the line on this weeks game) in each of the 17 contests since 2000, they would have gone 14-3 against the spread. So while the Buckeyes have gone 13-4, the Badgers also proved they are able to recruit the talent to compete with Ohio State on a regular basis.
Ohio State is getting more credit for blowing out a couple of cupcakes than Wisconsin is for doing the exact same thing. This creates some line value here.
Our Pick
Here’s the way our model sees this game using a combination data from this year and last.
Wisconsin 57.0 19 Ohio State -18.0 27 using full season data Wisconsin 57.0 12 Ohio State -18.0 21 using last 4 games Wisconsin 57.0 19 Ohio State -18.0 32 using last 7 games
As each week goes by the model will get a better grip on all of these teams. Looking at the predictions above, we think the model is probably right on target in this one. An Ohio State win but one where Wisconsin competes and hangs in there for 60 minutes.
We’ll take Wisconsin plus the generous spot and we’ll also take the added line value thanks to the line move and we’ll go under the total.