Wisconsin at Ohio State Big 10 CFB Pick ATS – 9-24

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wisconsin at ohio state free cfb pick
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Ohio State will host Wisconsin in Big 10 college football action on Saturday September 24th. Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm est. with Ohio State favored by 19 points. The total at betonline is 57, up from an opener of 55.

The Buckeyes got off to a slow start in their first game this year, trailing Notre Dame at the half 10-7 before two unanswered 2nd half TD’s put the game away, 21-10. Since then they have blown out Arkansas State 45-12 and Toledo 77-21.

But truthfully, the Wisconsin Badgers season hasn’t been all that different from the Buckeyes. They too blew out two cupcakes and struggled (and lost) to the only semi legitimate opponent they faced. Wisconsin beat Illinois State 38-0 and New Mexico State 66-7. Their loss came against Washington State, 17-14.

No Strangers Here

These two Big 10 teams are obviously very familiar with each other. Here’s a look at their head to head meetings going back to 2000.

12/ 7/2019  Wisconsin                21  +16.0  vs Ohio State               34
10/26/2019  Wisconsin                 7  +14.5  at Ohio State               38
12/ 2/2017  Wisconsin                21  + 5.5  vs Ohio State               27
10/15/2016  Ohio State               30  -10.5  at Wisconsin                23
12/ 6/2014  Wisconsin                 0  - 4.0  vs Ohio State               59
 9/28/2013  Wisconsin                24  + 6.5  at Ohio State               31
11/17/2012  Ohio State               21  + 2.5  at Wisconsin                14
10/29/2011  Wisconsin                29  - 7.5  at Ohio State               33
10/16/2010  Ohio State               18  - 4.0  at Wisconsin                31
10/10/2009  Wisconsin                13  +16.0  at Ohio State               31
10/ 4/2008  Ohio State               20  - 1.5  at Wisconsin                17
11/ 3/2007  Wisconsin                17  +16.5  at Ohio State               38
10/ 9/2004  Wisconsin                24  + 4.0  at Ohio State               13
10/11/2003  Ohio State               10  - 3.0  at Wisconsin                17
10/19/2002  Ohio State               19  - 6.5  at Wisconsin                14
10/13/2001  Wisconsin                20  +11.0  at Ohio State               17
10/ 7/2000  Ohio State               23  - 1.5  at Wisconsin                 7

When you look at the history over the last 20 years you’ll find that Ohio State has come out on top more times than not. 13-4 to be exact. They have also won the last 8 in a row and 12 of the last 13.

But what you’ll also find is that there have been very few blowouts. The worst was the 2014 Big 10 Title game won by Ohio State 59-0. 38-7 was another one in 2019. But of the 17 games since 2000, 9 of them have been decided by a TD or less.

In fact, if you gave Wisconsin 19 points (the line on this weeks game) in each of the 17 contests since 2000, they would have gone 14-3 against the spread. So while the Buckeyes have gone 13-4, the Badgers also proved they are able to recruit the talent to compete with Ohio State on a regular basis.

Ohio State is getting more credit for blowing out a couple of cupcakes than Wisconsin is for doing the exact same thing. This creates some line value here.

Our Pick

Here’s the way our model sees this game using a combination data from this year and last.

Wisconsin                 57.0          19           
Ohio State               -18.0          27 using full season data
  
Wisconsin                 57.0          12           
Ohio State               -18.0          21 using last 4 games
  
Wisconsin                 57.0          19           
Ohio State               -18.0          32 using last 7 games

As each week goes by the model will get a better grip on all of these teams. Looking at the predictions above, we think the model is probably right on target in this one. An Ohio State win but one where Wisconsin competes and hangs in there for 60 minutes.

We’ll take Wisconsin plus the generous spot and we’ll also take the added line value thanks to the line move and we’ll go under the total.

Wisconsin +19

UNDER 57