Florida State vs. Clemson Week 4 NCAAF Betting Analysis

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florida state vs. clemson cfb pick
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The ACC heats up, big time, this Saturday when fourth ranked and undefeated Florida State head to Clemson.

Florida State is the slight road betting favorite in this game at -2.5 with the total of 55 at wagerweb. The public has been backing the Seminoles, as they opened as a 1.5-point favorite and as of Wednesday morning are a 2.5-point favorite.

In their last game FSU was on the road and beat Boston College 31-29 for their first ACC win. However, they failed to cover the huge spread of 27.5 after covering in their first two games.

Clemson was at home in their last game moving to 2-1 with a 48-14 win over Florida Atlantic. They covered as a 24.5-point favorite after failing to cover in their first two games.

Last season at FSU the Tigers beat the Seminoles 34-28 and they have not lost to them since the 2014 season.

Surviving the Comeback

In the 31-29 win over Boston College, FSU blew a 21-point lead and got a little lucky with the Golden Eagles committing a third down penalty late that would have given them back the ball.

In the BC win FSU was outgained 457 yards to 340 yards, were only 1-9 on third down, and, again, were lucky, with the Golden Eagles committing a whopping 18 penalties for 131 yards.

Star QB Jordan Travis was banged up in the game but played the entirety and passed for 222 yards with two TD and no INT. Johnny Wilson led the way with 105 receiving yards and Travis was one of three players with at least 38 rushing yards.

To say FSU has a balanced offense is an understatement, as they rank 37th in the nation in both passing and rushing yards per game.

Travis has two TD and no INT in each of the last two games, where he also rushed for 58 yards.  he has only been sacked one time in three games and it is not good for the Tigers that their pass rush has not looked good with only four sacks in three games.

Travis and the Seminoles’ offense will be facing a Clemson defense that ranks 31st in the nation in pass D and 70th in run D.

Need the W

Clemson lost their season opener to Duke, which was an ACC opponent and if they lost to FSU and fall to 0-2 in conference play their chance of the playoffs may be lost. They have won their last two games winning by a combined score of 114-31 but they have not faced any powerhouse playing Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic.

In the 48-14 win over FAU they were up 34-0 at the half and did not outgain the Owls by that much (367 yards to 293 yards) but forced four turnovers and dominated the time of possession.

In the FAU win Cade Klubnik passed for 169 yards with three TD and no INT, four players had at least 32 rushing yards, and Adam Randall and Tyler Brown, who had two TD, combined for 100 receiving yards.

Will Shipley leads the Tigers with 225 rushing yards averaging 6.3 yards per carry but in the last game only rushed for 38 yards on 10 carries. He and the other RB have to get it done, as Klubnik cannot carry the team with his arm.

Clemson will be facing an FSU defense that only ranks 98th in the nation defending the pass and 51stdefending the run.

Trends

In Florida State’s last five games the total has gone Over every time.

Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last five games facing Florida State.

 

Our Pick – Florida State -2

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